Spectrum News / Siena College 24th Congressional District Poll:
Katko Has 15-Point Lead Over Balter, 54-39 Percent
Balter Leads Big in Syracuse; Katko Up in Rest of Onondaga; Leads Big In Other Counties; Women Evenly Divided; Men for Katko Two-to-One
Favorability Ratings: Katko, 53-36 Percent; Balter, 32-23 Percent
Loudonville, NY. Ten weeks from election day, Republican Representative John Katko leads Democrat Dana Balter 54-39 percent, according to a new Spectrum News/Siena College poll of likely 24th C.D. voters released today. Katko has 53-36 percent favorability rating, compared to 32-23 percent for Balter.
“Incumbent Katko – the first to win consecutive terms in this district in a decade – has a strong 15-point lead in a district closely divided between Democrats and Republicans. While Katko trails Balter two-to-one in Syracuse, expected to produce about one-sixth of voters, Katko leads by 14 points in the rest of Onondaga County – about half of voters – and better than two-to-one in the other three counties, which produce about a third of voters,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg.
“Katko has the support of 86 percent of Republicans, picks up support from one-fifth of Democrats and leads with independents by 11 points. Balter runs even with women but men favor Katko two-to-one,” Greenberg said. “More well known, Katko has a 53-36 percent favorability rating, compared to 32-23 percent favorability rating for Balter, who remains largely unknown to nearly half of the electorate.
“Despite Katko’s significant lead, voters are nearly evenly divided on which party they want to see control the House of Representatives, tilting Republican 47-45 percent. And by a narrow four-point margin, 49-45 percent, voters disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President,” Greenberg said. “As we approach Labor Day and the race heats up, Balter has her work cut out for her. Katko is better known and gets a lot more support from Democrats than Balter gets from Republicans, and he has a double-digit lead with independents. We will continue to watch this district which has frequently flipped parties but for now, advantage Katko.”
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This Spectrum News/Siena College 24th C.D. survey was conducted August 20-23, 2018 by telephone calls in English to 513 likely 24th C.D. voters. This poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.7 percentage points. Calls were made to a stratified weighted sample of voters from the L-2 Voter list via both land and cell phones. A likely-to-vote probability was computed for each respondent based on their stated likelihood to vote as well as by virtue of the imputation of a turnout probability score based on past voting behavior. This combined probability to vote score was applied as a weight along with a weight that considered party registration, age, region, and gender. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social and cultural research primarily in NYS. SCRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, please call Steven Greenberg at 518-469-9858. Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at: www.Siena.edu/SCRI/SNY.