Likely Voter Methodology

The Siena College Research Institute during election season uses a multi-stage likely voter screen consisting of the following five questions:

1. Generally speaking, how much interest would you say you have in politics?

  • A great deal
  • A fair amount
  • Only a little
  • No interest at all

2. How closely have you been following the news about the candidates running for election here in New York State?

  • Very closely
  • Somewhat closely
  • Not very closely
  • Not at all

3. How much thought have you given to the upcoming elections here in the New York State?

  • A great deal
  • Some
  • A little
  • Not very much
  • None

4. How likely would you say you are to vote in the [specify] Election?

  • Almost certain
  • Very likely
  • Somewhat likely
  • Not very likely
  • Not at all likely

5. I’d like you to rate your chance of voting in the general election to be held on [specify date] on a scale of 10 to 1.  If TEN represents a person who definitely will vote and ONE represents a person who definitely will NOT vote, where on this scale of 10 to 1 would you place yourself?

All registered voters are asked the first four questions and those that generate an index score based upon their responses to those four questions that is sufficiently high (that necessary index score increases as the election nears) continue with the entire survey.  Question #5 on this list is asked near the end of the survey and simultaneously considered along with the index score generated by questions 1 – 4 to further screen respondents for those most likely to vote.