Newsday / Siena College 1st Congressional District Poll:
Zeldin Extends Lead Over Throne-Holst to 57-36%
Throne-Holst Loses Ground with Democrats & Women; Zeldin Increases Lead with Republicans & Voters without College Degree
Trump Lead Over Clinton Grows to 13 Points, Up From 3 Points Last Month
Loudonville, NY. Republican Representative Lee Zeldin has expanded his 15-point lead over Democrat Anna Throne-Holst to a now 21-point lead, 57-36 percent, according to a new Newsday/Siena College poll of likely 1st C.D. voters. Zeldin has the support of 90 percent of Republicans, up six points from last month, while Throne-Holst’s lead among Democrats fell from 62 points to 51 points; Zeldin now has the support of 22 percent of Democrats, and leads by 18 points with independents, largely unchanged from 17 points last month.
In the race for President, Donald Trump has opened a large 13-point lead over Hillary Clinton, 51-38 percent, up from Trump’s three-point, 43-40 percent, lead last month. Senator Chuck Schumer has a 57-36 percent lead over Wendy Long in the race for United States Senate, nearly identical to last month’s 56-36 percent Schumer lead.
“Compounding Throne-Holst’s problems is that while she remains largely unknown to almost one-third of voters, the percentage of voters viewing her unfavorably increased from 25 to 38 percent, and those viewing her favorably inched down to 31 percent. At the same time, Zeldin’s favorability rating improved from 49-33 percent last month to 55-32 percent,” Greenberg said. “While Throne-Holst’s campaign commercials have been seen by 60 percent of voters, compared to Zeldin’s 70 percent, by a decisive 41-16 percent margin, voters say Throne-Holst, not Zeldin, is running the more negative campaign.
Trump Opens Double Digit Lead Over Clinton; Schumer’s 21-Point Lead Over Long Stays Constant
“With increased support from both Republicans and Democrats, Trump turned a three-point lead last month into a solid 13-point lead today. While previously Clinton had the support of twice as many Republicans as Trump had from Democrats, now Trump has support of 18 percent of Democrats – up from six percent – compared to Clinton’s 10 percent support from Republicans. Trump’s support among men is largely unchanged from last month, however, he now leads with women by six points after previously trailing by 13 points,” Greenberg said.
“Schumer continues to have overwhelming Democratic backing, although down slightly, and he continues to receive support from one-third of Republicans, as he increased his lead with independents,” Greenberg said.
“Heading into the closing days of the campaign, Zeldin is in a commanding position and Throne-Holst is facing an ever-steepening uphill climb. Zeldin has a strong favorability rating while Throne-Holst is viewed unfavorably by a plurality of voters. Zeldin has three-times greater support from Democrats than Throne-Holst enjoys with Republicans. More voters have been touched by the Zeldin campaign than by Throne-Holst’s. A large plurality of voters thinks Throne-Holst, not Zeldin, is waging the more negative campaign. And by a 15-point margin, voters want Republicans to maintain control of the House. Every indicator points to Zeldin,” Greenberg said.
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This Newsday/Siena College 1st C.D. survey was conducted October 27-31, 2016 by telephone calls in English to 607 likely 1st C.D. voters. This poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percentage points. Calls were made to a stratified weighted sample of voters from the L-2 Voter list via both land and cell phones. A likely-to-vote probability was computed for each respondent based on their stated likelihood to vote and interest in the upcoming election as well as by virtue of the imputation of a turnout probability score based on past voting behavior applied to their specific voting history. This probability to vote was applied as a weight along with a weight that considered party registration, age, region, and gender. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social and cultural research primarily in NYS. SRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, please call Steven Greenberg at 518-469-9858. Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at: www.Siena.edu/SRI/SNY.