Time Warner Cable News / Siena College 22nd Congressional District Poll:
Tenney Leads Myers By 4 Points, As Babinec Fades
Inds Closely Divided; Tenney Benefits from Enrollment Advantage
Trump Over Clinton by 14 Points; Schumer Beats Long by 23 Points
Loudonville, NY. Republican Claudia Tenney continues to hold a small lead over Democrat Kim Myers as independent candidate Martin Babinec drops to a distant third place. Tenney leads Myers 38-34 percent, from 35-30 percent in September, while Babinec’s support has fallen to 16 percent, from 24 percent, according to a new Time Warner Cable News/Siena College poll of likely 22nd C.D. voters released today. Myers leads by 49 points with Democrats, up from 39 points, and Tenney leads with Republicans by 46 points, up from 35 points. Independents are closely divided, with Tenney having a narrow two-point lead, down from 12 points.
Donald Trump expanded his lead over Hillary Clinton to 46-32 percent, up from 46-35 percent previously. Chuck Schumer continues to have a large lead over Wendy Long, 57-34 percent, from 60-35 percent.
“The race between Tenney and Myers remains a tight four-point race, however, as Babinec has fallen out of contention, he now appears to be hurting Tenney more than he hurts Myers,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg. “Both major party candidates solidified their bases since September, and Myers now leads among Democrats by 49 points, as Tenney leads among Republicans – who have an eight-point enrollment edge – by 46 points. Myers has picked up with independent voters, cutting Tenney’s lead from 12 points to just two points.
“In Broome/Tioga, Myers has taken an 11-point lead, after trailing by seven points. Tenney’s lead in Cortland/ Madison/Chenango is down to a narrow two points, from 15 points. And in Herkimer/Oneida/Oswego, Tenney turned a nearly even race into a 16-point advantage,” Greenberg said.
“There’s a widening gender gap as Tenney increased her lead among men to 17 points, up from 14 points, while Myers has opened an eight-point lead with women, after leading by a narrow three points,” Greenberg said. “Babinec dropped the most with Democrats, nine points, and the least with independents, three points. And Babinec supporters are considerably less firm in their support than are Tenney or Myers supporters.
“Myers and Tenney have nearly identical favorability ratings, however, Tenney’s standing with voters has improved since September, while Myers is viewed more negatively now,” Greenberg said. “Each of the three candidates’ commercials have been seen or heard by at least 70 percent of likely voters. By a small margin, 31-24 percent, voters say Myers, not Tenney is waging the more negative campaign.”
Trump Widens Double Digit Lead Over Clinton; Schumer Continues Large Lead Over Long
“By increasing his lead among independent voters, from nine to 24 points, Trump was able to extend his lead over Clinton overall to 14 points, up from 11 points in September. While 72 percent of Myers voters support Clinton, 77 percent of Tenney voters and 61 percent of Babinec supporters are backing Trump,” Greenberg said. “Continuing to attract support from 40 percent of Republicans, Schumer remains 23 points ahead of Long.
“What was a unique, competitive three-way race has turned into a more traditional D vs. R battle, and Tenney continues to have a small lead in this district that tilts red. If Babinec’s support continues to erode, that seems likely to help Tenney, since 56 percent of his supporters are Republicans, and those who support him agree with Republicans far more than Democrats, except when it comes to Claudia Tenney herself. Myers voters view Myers favorably and Tenney unfavorably. Tenney voters are the opposite. Babinec voters view both Myers and Tenney unfavorably,” Greenberg said. “Heading toward Tuesday, Tenney has the advantage, however, turnout and the Babinec wild card could be major factors. Myers is clearly in shouting distance.”
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This Time Warner Cable News/Siena College 22nd C.D. survey was conducted November 1-2, 2016 by telephone calls in English to 643 likely 22nd C.D. voters. This poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points. Calls were made to a stratified weighted sample of voters from the L-2 Voter list via both land and cell phones. A likely-to-vote probability was computed for each respondent based on their stated likelihood to vote and interest in the upcoming election as well as by virtue of the imputation of a turnout probability score based on past voting behavior applied to their specific voting history. This probability to vote was applied as a weight along with a weight that considered party registration, age, region, and gender. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social and cultural research primarily in NYS. SRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, please call Steven Greenberg at 518-469-9858. Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at: www.Siena.edu/SRI/SNY.