- Plurality Now Oppose Aid to Israel, 45-43%; Was Supported 51-37% in Nov.; Voters Continue to Support Ukrainian Aid 50-40%, Down from 52-36%
- Trump Solidifies Republican Base; 74% Want Him as Nominee; 80% View Him Favorably; Biden, with His Lowest Ever Favorability Rating, 43-53%, Continues to Hold a Narrow Lead (By NY Standards) Over Trump, 46-37%
Loudonville, NY. Governor Kathy Hochul has a 45-42% favorability rating, up from 40-43% in November, and the first time it has been positive since it was 46-43% in February 2023. Her job approval rating is 52-43%, up a little from 48-44% in November, according to a Siena College poll of registered New York State voters released today. By margins of between 21 and six percentage points, a plurality or majority of New Yorkers think that Hochul will not make progress on any of five issues she has put forth as goals: making New York a more desirable place to live, making New York the A.I. capital of the world, making the state safer, fixing the mental health care system, and increasing the housing supply.
By a small plurality, 45-43%, voters oppose providing additional economic and military aid to Israel, after having supported additional aid by 51-37% margin in November. Support for increased aid to Ukraine continues, 50-40%, but down from 52-36% in November.
“Good news and bad news this month for the Governor. On the good side, for the first time in nearly a year, more New York voters now view Hochul favorably than have an unfavorable view of her. While nearly two-thirds of Democrats view her favorably, she is viewed unfavorably by 23% of Democrats, 51% of independents and 77% of Republicans,” Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg said. “Similarly, Hochul’s job approval rating is the best it’s been since last March, even as more than half of independents and more than three-quarters of Republicans disapprove of the job she is doing as Governor, offset by 72% of Democrats who approve.
“At the same time, on several issues Hochul has championed, voters think she will not make progress in the next year. Voters think, 54-33%, that Hochul will not make living in New York more desirable. By 44-26% they say she won’t make New York the A.I. capital of the world, including a majority of Republicans and pluralities of Democrats and independents,” Greenberg said. “While Democrats give Hochul props on all the other issues, a majority of both Republicans and independents say she will not make progress on any of those four issues.”
“When asked to choose which issue – healthcare, education, crime, housing and the migrant influx – Hochul has been most successful in addressing as governor, a plurality of voters, 28%, including a majority of Republicans, volunteered that she had been most successful on ‘none’ of these issues,” Greenberg said. “Among those who identified an issue, 23% said she’d been most successful on healthcare, including mental health, followed by education, 12%, crime 7%, housing 7%, and the migrant influx, 6%. As to the issues she’s been least successful in addressing, the migrant influx, 32%, and crime, 21%, top the list.”
NYers Still Support Aid for Ukraine but a Narrow Plurality Now Opposes Aid for Israel
“Democrats support increased military and economic aid for Ukraine better than two-to-one, however,
Republicans oppose by a similar margin and independents are closely divided,” Greenberg said. “When it comes to Israel, the partisan divide disappears. Democrats narrowly oppose it, 47-43%, as do independents, 43-38%, while Republicans barely support Israeli aid, 46-44%.
“White voters support Israeli aid by 10 points and Ukrainian aid by 20 points, while Black and Latino voters oppose both,” Greenberg said. “Younger voters also oppose aid to both countries, while older voters strongly support aid for both countries.”
Trump Solidifies His NY Republican Base; They Overwhelmingly Support His Nomination & Election
Among all voters former President Donald Trump has a 37-57% favorability rating, up a little from 34-60% in November, while he has an 80-15% favorability with Republicans. By a 74-24% margin, Republicans say they want Trump – as opposed to someone else – as their presidential nominee this year.
“New York Republicans are all in with Trump. Four out of five Republicans view him favorably, and
three-quarters of Republicans want to see Trump as their presidential standard bearer this year,” Greenberg said.
Biden’s Favorability & Job Performance Ratings Both Fell a Little; Both Hit Lowest Level Ever
Biden has a 43-53% favorability rating (70-28% with Democrats), his lowest ever in a Siena College poll, down a little from 44-51% in November. His job approval rating stands at 44-56% (70-30% with Democrats), also his lowest ever, down a little from 45-53% in November.
“Biden has hit his lowest standing ever with New York voters, despite scoring well with Democrats. Nearly 90% of Republicans both view him unfavorably and disapprove of the job he’s doing as president, and 71% of independents view him unfavorably and 75% disapprove of his job performance,” Greenberg said. “While Biden’s falling poll numbers have not been dramatic month-to-month, they are dramatic if you look over the last year. A year ago, Biden’s net favorability rating was +2, today 10 points underwater, and his net approval rating fell from +4 to -12, a net drop of 16 points.”
Biden Continues to Hold ‘Narrow’ Lead Over Trump – Both Head-to-Head & In 4-Way Race
Biden leads Trump in a head-to-head matchup 46-37%, little changed from 46-36% in November. When Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and Cornel West are included in the horserace, Biden leads Trump 41-32%, with 13% for Kennedy and 3% for West. In November, Biden led Trump 37-28%, with 18% for RFK and 5% for West.
“Flashback four years: Biden beats Trump 61-38%, a 23-point margin. Today, whether it’s a two-way race or a four-way race, Biden only leads Trump by nine points,” Greenberg said. “Biden wins the lion’s share of
Democrats, 75% in the head-to-head matchup, however Trump has the support of 82% of Republicans and a commanding 45-26% lead with independents.
“As has been the case in recent national polls, Biden has lost considerable support among key constituencies that propelled him to victory four years ago. He leads Trump with Black voters 54-24%, down from 64-13% in November. With Latinos, Biden now trails Trump by 3 points, after leading by 27 points in November. And voters under 35, only favor Biden over Trump 38-33%, with 29% not supporting either,” Greenberg said.
Odds & Ends
- More than 80% of voters continue to say that the recent migrant influx is a serious problem (61% say very serious). When it comes to how elected officials are doing in addressing the migrant influx, voters disapprove of the job Mayor Eric Adams is doing 54-28% (46-30% in October), the job Hochul is doing 59-33% (52-37% in October), and the job the Biden Administration is doing 67-28% (64-29% in October).
- A plurality of voters thinks that crime across the state has gotten worse in the last year, while a plurality thinks that crime in their community has stayed about the same. When asked the greatest cause of crime in New York, 22% said poverty, 18% substance abuse, 14% mental illness, 13% breakdown of the family, and 8% each for the migrant influx and inequality. The top two causes for Democrats were poverty and mental illness; for Republicans substance abuse and breakdown of the family; for independents poverty and substance abuse.
- By a 49-32% margin, little changed from 49-34% in November, voters say they would vote for a Democrat, rather than a Republican, for their representative in Congress.
- Senator Kirsten Gillibrand has a 42-28% favorability rating, little changed from 42-26% in November. Now, 43% of voters would re-elect Gillibrand, while 38% prefer ‘someone else’. It was 40-35% in November.
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This Siena College Poll was conducted January 14-17, 2024, among 807 NYS Registered Voters. Of the 807 respondents, 507 were contacted through a dual frame (landline and cell phone) mode and 300 respondents were drawn from a proprietary online panel (Lucid). Telephone calls were conducted in English and respondent sampling was initiated by asking for the youngest person in the household. Telephone sampling was conducted via a stratified dual frame probability sample of landline and cell phone telephone numbers weighted to reflect known population patterns. The landline telephone sample was obtained from ASDE and the cell phone sample was obtained from Dynata. Data from collection modes was statistically adjusted by age, party by region, race/ethnicity, education, and gender to ensure representativeness. It has an overall margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points including the design effects resulting from weighting. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social, and cultural research primarily in NYS. SCRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, call Steve Greenberg at (518) 469-9858. For survey crosstabs: www.Siena.edu/SCRI/SNY.
