- Only 29% Say It’s Very Likely US Will be Democratic Republic in 2030; Another 38% Say Somewhat Likely; 22% Say Not Very or Not at All Likely
- Trump Should Be Required to Testify in AG James’ Civil Investigation, 63-27%
Loudonville, NY. Governor Kathy Hochul is – five months before the primary – the clear favorite among New York Democrats, leading potential primary opponents by more than 30 points. She has the support of 46 percent of Democrats, compared to 12 percent for former New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio, 11 percent for New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams, and six percent for Rep. Tom Suozzi, with 24 percent unsure or naming another candidate, according to a new Siena College poll of registered New York State voters released today.
When asked how likely it is that the United States will continue to be a democratic republic in 2030 despite current partisan divisions, 29 percent said it was very likely, another 38 percent say it’s somewhat likely, 17 percent say not very likely, and five percent say not likely at all. Voters support, 63-27 percent, requiring former President Donald Trump to testify in the civil investigation into potential fraud by the Trump Organization being conducted by Attorney General Letitia James.
“James is out of the race. Williams and Suozzi are unknown to half of Democrats. A potential opponent, de Blasio, is viewed unfavorably by more Democrats than view him favorably. With 22 weeks until the primary, it appears Hochul is in the catbird seat to be the Democratic nominee for governor,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg. “Hochul approaches support from nearly half of Democrats, 46 percent, up from 36 percent last month – before James, who had the support of 18 percent, exited the race. DeBlasio appears to have picked up some James supporters as well, now at 12 percent, up from six percent in December.
“Hochul leads big in New York City and the downstate suburbs and has an enormous lead, 65 percent support, upstate. In fact, she leads with every demographic group, except Black voters – 36 percent for de Blasio, 26 percent for Hochul, 19 percent for Williams,” Greenberg said. “Among Democrats, Hochul has a 60-19 percent favorability rating, compared to Williams, 38-13 percent, Suozzi, 26-19 percent, and de Blasio, 42-45 percent.”
“Five months is a long time in politics but given her bully pulpit, campaign war chest and enormous early lead, Williams, Suozzi and de Blasio, if he enters the race, have a lot of catching up to do and a very steep path in front of them,” Greenberg said.
Only Three in Ten Voters Thinks It’s ‘Very Likely’ the US Will Remain a Democratic Republic in 2030 “New Yorkers are not overly optimistic about our nation’s future as the world’s oldest continuing democracy. Only one in three Democrats and one in four Republicans and independents thinks it very likely that the United States will still be a democratic republic in 2030,” Greenberg said. “One-third of Republicans, one-quarter of independents and 17 percent of Democrats don’t think it very or at all likely that the republic as we know it will continue. New York City voters are more optimistic than the rest of the state; men more optimistic than women.
“While Siena has never asked this question before, it’s hard to believe that a decade ago nearly one in four New Yorkers would say American democracy was not likely to exist a decade later,” Greenberg said. “Voters think the country is currently headed in the wrong direction by nearly two-to-one and hold a rather glum assessment of the nation’s future. New Yorkers’ level of optimism in America appears to be lower than a January thermometer.”
Trump Should be Required to Testify in James’ Civil Investigation into Trump Organization
“With a clear partisan divide, New Yorkers strongly support requiring Trump to testify in the James civil investigation into the Trump Organization. Eighty-one percent of Democrats and 51 percent of independents say Trump should be required to testify, and while Republicans say Trump should not be required to testify, they do so by only a 47-40 percent margin,” Greenberg said. “At least 55 percent of voters from every region, race, gender, age group, and income level support compelling Trump to testify in the investigation.”
Eight Hochul State of the State Proposals Enjoy Strong to Overwhelming Support
“Voters support eight Hochul proposals from her first state of the state address by margins of between 21 and 65 points. Five of the proposals – help those currently and formerly incarcerated with job skills and employment, implementing term limits for the statewide offices, providing wages and bonuses for healthcare workers, adding an Equal Rights Amendment to the State Constitution, and banning most outside income for statewide elected officials – have strong bipartisan support,” Greenberg said.
Voters Are Mostly Evenly Divided on Whether Hochul Will Make Progress Toward Her Goals
“Democrats are optimistic Hochul’s administration will make progress in achieving five of the goals she laid out earlier this year. Republicans largely think she will not make progress. Independents also don’t think she’ll make progress but they’re not as pessimistic about it as Republicans,” Greenberg said. “Overall, Hochul has work to do in convincing New Yorkers that she will make progress on these issues. Time will tell.”
Odds & Ends
- New York City Mayor Eric Adams has a 41-19 percent favorability rating in his first statewide poll. It’s 63-20 percent among New York City voters, and only 20-12 percent among Upstate voters.
- President Joe Biden’s rating held steady in the last month. His favorability rating is 52-42 percent, from 52-44 percent last month. His job performance rating is 39-60 percent, from 39-59 percent.
This Siena College Poll was conducted January 9-13, 2022 among 806 New York State registered voters with 406 voters contacted through a dual frame (landline and cell phone) mode and 400 responses drawn from a proprietary online panel (Lucid) of New Yorkers. Telephone calls were conducted in English and respondent sampling was initiated by asking for the youngest person in the household. Telephone sampling was conducted via a stratified dual frame probability sample of landline (ASDE) and cell phone (Dynata) telephone numbers within New York State weighted to reflect known population patterns. Data from both collection modes (phone and web) was merged and statistically adjusted by age, party by region, race/ethnicity, education, and gender to ensure representativeness. It has an overall margin of error of +/- 4.0 percentage points including the design effects resulting from weighting. There were 417 Democrats, with a margin of error of +/- 5.4 percentage points including the design effect resulting from weighting. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social, and cultural research primarily in NYS. SCRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, call Steve Greenberg at (518) 469-9858. For survey crosstabs: www.Siena.edu/SCRI/SNY.
