- By 62-29%, Voters Say Trump Will be Re-elected & Dems Say so 48-41%
- Sanders Leads Bloomberg by 4 Points in Primary Race for Democrats
- Dems Say Bloomberg Has Best Chance to Win; Want Candidate they
- Agree with More than Candidate with Best Chance to Beat Trump, 51-45%
- Cuomo Ratings Drop, As Does Support for Last Year’s Bail Reform Law
Loudonville, NY. New York voters would choose any of the six leading Democratic presidential candidates over President Donald Trump by margins from 25 points by Michael Bloomberg to 14 points by Elizabeth Warren. And New Yorkers say by a 62-29 percent margin that they believe Trump will be re-elected, including 81 percent of Republicans, 73 percent of independents and even a plurality, 48 percent, of Democrats, according to a new Siena College Poll of registered New York State voters released today.
Among registered Democrats, Bernie Sanders has the support of 25 percent, followed by Bloomberg, 21 percent; Joe Biden, 13 percent; Warren, 11 percent; and, Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar, each with nine percent. Fifty-one percent of Democrats prefer a candidate they agree with on more issues, while 45 percent want the candidate with the best chance to defeat Trump. And 33 percent of Democrats say that Bloomberg has the best chance to beat Trump, followed by Sanders at 22 percent, Biden at 16 percent and the other three in single digits.
“Thirty-six weeks out, it does not appear that the Democrats’ winning streak in presidential contests in New York – solid since Ronald Regan’s re-election in 1984 – is in jeopardy. All six leading Democratic candidates currently lead Trump by double digits,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg.
“Bloomberg, the former New York City mayor and current New Yorker, has a substantial 25-point lead over the President who was elected from New York and now lives in Florida, largely on the strength of a 17-point lead among independent voters,” Greenberg said. “Buttigieg is the only other Democrat to have a lead, albeit very narrow, over Trump with independents.”
“While New Yorkers appear poised to give the Democrats their ninth consecutive presidential nod, they also overwhelmingly believe Trump is poised to win re-election to a second term,” Greenberg said. “More than three-quarters of Republicans, nearly three-quarters of independents and nearly half of Democrats think Trump will win re-election in November. A majority of voters from every demographic group think Trump will win, with the exception of Democrats – only a plurality – and self-described liberals, who say he will not win 47-42 percent.”
All Dems Give Sanders Small Lead over Bloomberg in Primary; Say Bloomberg Has Best Chance to Win
“With nine weeks – and Democrats in a majority of states casting their ballots – before New York Democrats weigh in on their party’s presidential nominee, Sanders has a narrow four-point lead over Bloomberg, 25-21 percent, with Biden, Warren, Buttigieg and Klobuchar all between nine and 13 percent support,” Greenberg said. “Bloomberg leads in New York City with Sanders second, while Sanders leads upstate and in the downstate suburbs, where Bloomberg finishes third in both. Bernie is trouncing with younger voters and Mike has a commanding lead with older voters. Men side with Bernie, while women lean toward Mike.
“Which Democrat has the best chance to win in November? Right now, one-third of Democrats say Bloomberg, followed by Sanders and Biden. Not surprisingly, Bloomberg has the best chance according to older voters, with whom he scores higher on favorability, and Sanders has the best chance according to younger voters, who overwhelmingly view him favorably,” Greenberg said. “This is more of a snapshot of Democrats than pre-election poll since it is likely that South Carolina and Super Tuesday will significantly reduce the size of the field, and this poll did not look at likely primary voters.
Narrowly, Democrats Prefer Candidate They Agree with More over One with Best Chance to Win
“Democrats from New York City and Democratic men say they’re likely to vote for a candidate they agree with more on the issues, as are 80 percent of voters under 35 years-old. Downstate suburban and upstate Democrats, as well as liberal and older Democrats are inclined to vote for the candidate they see as having the best chance to beat Trump,” Greenberg said. “Black, white and women Democrats are all virtually evenly divided.”
Cuomo Favorability & Job Performance Ratings Slip to November Levels After Rising in January
Governor Andrew Cuomo has a negative 44-50 percent favorability rating, down from 49-45 percent in January, and matching his negative 44-49 percent rating in November. His job performance rating also dropped, with
36 percent giving Cuomo a positive job performance rating and 63 percent giving him a negative rating, down from 41-56 percent last month, barely ahead of 35-65 percent in November.
“Over the last year, Cuomo’s ratings have been on a seesaw. Some months he’s a little above breakeven; some months he’s a little below. Since last month, Cuomo has taken a significant hit with Democrats, liberals, upstaters and younger voters,” Greenberg said. “Interestingly, Cuomo’s 44 percent favorability puts him a little below the Assembly and the Senate, which each has a 46 percent favorability rating.”
Support for New Bail Law Continues to Erode; Majority Now Thinks New Bail Law is Bad for NY
Last year, New York passed a law eliminating monetary bail for people facing misdemeanor and non-violent felony charges. Do you think this law is good for New York or bad for New York?
(In April 2019, question asked was whether the new law “will be” good or bad for NY.)
“Support for the new bail law – which took effect in January after passage as part of the budget last year – continues to plummet. In April, New Yorkers thought the new law would be good for the state by 17 points. Last month, voters said the new law is bad for the state by a margin of 12 points. Today, that margin for thinking the law is bad for New York has bulged to 26 points,” Greenberg said.
Odds & Ends
- Voters are now evenly divided, 48-48 percent, on the law allowing undocumented immigrants to get a New York driver’s license. Democrats, black and Latino voters continue to strongly support it, as independents and white voters oppose it and Republicans strongly oppose the law.
- Senate Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins and Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie remain largely unknown to voters. Among those voters who have an opinion, both have essentially breakeven favorability ratings.
- Voters’ view on the direction of the state slipped as 41 percent now say the state is on the right track and 46 percent say it’s headed in the wrong direction, down from 49-41 percent last month.
This Siena College Poll was conducted February 16-20, 2020 by telephone calls conducted in English to 658 New York State registered voters. Respondent sampling was initiated by asking for the youngest person in the household. It has an overall margin of error of 4.5 percentage points including the design effects resulting from weighting. There were 315 registered Democrats with a margin of error of +/-6.6 percentage point including the design effects resulting from weighting. Sampling was conducted via a stratified dual frame probability sample of landline (ASDE) and cell phone (Dynata) telephone numbers from within New York State. Data was statistically adjusted by age, party by region, race/ethnicity, and gender to ensure representativeness. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social and cultural research primarily in NYS. SCRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, call Steve Greenberg at (518) 469-9858. For survey crosstabs: www.Siena.edu/SCRI/SNY.
