- Attorney General: James – 53% Henry – 37%
- State Comptroller: DiNapoli – 52% Rodriguez – 29%
- Control of US House: Dems – 54% Reps – 39%
- Environmental Bond Act: Yes – 55% No – 26%
- Economic Issues: Voters’ Top Issue by Far; Threats to Democracy & Crime are Next Most Important; Gun Policy, Abortion & Healthcare Follow Far Behind
Loudonville, NY. Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul holds a 17-point lead over Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin, 54-37%, up slightly from 53-39% in August. Democratic US Senator Chuck Schumer leads Republican Joe Pinion by 19 points, 55-36%, down slightly from 56-35% last month. Attorney General Letitia James, the Democrat, leads Republican Michael Henry 53-37%, 16 points, up slightly from 50-36%. And State Comptroller Tom DiNapoli, also a Democrat, leads Republican Paul Rodriguez 52-29%, a 23-point lead, also up slightly from 51-30% in August, according to a new Siena College Poll of likely New York State voters released today.
“Hochul continues to hold a strong double-digit lead over Zeldin, holding her base with support from 81% of Democrats, same as in August. Zeldin has support from 77% of Republicans, down from 84%, and continues to lead narrowly with independent voters, 45-42%,” Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg said. “Zeldin’s narrow lead among independents is both good – it’s a lead – and bad – it’s narrow. To close or even narrow a 17-point gap, he would need to win a far greater share of independents, solidify Republican support, as well as pick off some more Democrats.
“Not surprisingly, Hochul dominates in New York City, leads by five points in the downstate suburbs, after trailing there by three points in August, while upstaters break virtually even,” Greenberg said. “Hochul has a commanding two-to-one lead, 61-29% with women, and has a narrow 48-44% lead with men. White voters side with Hochul by 10 points, Latinos by 25 points and Blacks by 68 points.”
Hochul has a 47-40% favorability rating, little changed from 46-41% in August. Hochul has a 53-42% job approval rating, little changed from 52-41%. Zeldin has a negative 31-33% favorability rating, down a little from 31-28%, however 36% of likely voters have no opinion about him.
“Nearly twice as many Republicans, 23%, up from 16% last month, have a favorable view of Hochul, compared to 12% of Democrats, down from 14%, who view Zeldin favorably. In addition to the fact that fewer than one-third of voters view Zeldin favorably, compared to almost half who view Hochul favorably, more than one-third continue to have no opinion – good or bad – about Zeldin,” Greenberg said.
“In the eight weeks since the last Siena poll, little has changed in the overall dynamic of the gubernatorial or any of the statewide races. The four Democratic incumbents had leads between 14 and 21 points over their Republican challengers in August, and now have leads of between 16 and 23 points,” Greenberg said. “Now, with fewer than six weeks until Election Day, those Republican challengers – underfunded compared to the Democrats – have their work cut out for them in a state with more than twice as many registered Democrats as Republicans, more independents than registered Republicans, and where the GOP hasn’t won a statewide election in 20 years.”
Schumer Up 19 Points; DiNapoli Lead by 23 Points; James Up by 16 Points
Schumer has a 50-40% favorability rating, up a little from 49-43% in August. Pinion has a 5-6% favorability rating, with 88% having no opinion or having never heard of Pinion. DiNapoli’s 20-12% favorability rating is little changed from 22-11%. Still, 68% have no opinion of DiNapoli, who’s won three statewide races and got more votes than any candidate in 2018 and 2014. Rodriguez has a 7-6-87% favorability rating, from 7-7-85%. James has a 45-30% favorability rating, little changed from 43-29%. The 45% is James’ highest favorable rating. Henry’s 4-5-92% favorability rating compares to 5-5-90% in August.
“As Pinion, Rodriguez and Henry struggle to become known to voters – none of them are succeeding as they each remain unknown to roughly 90% – Schumer, DiNapoli and James continue to have significant double-digit leads over their opponents, each first-time statewide candidates,” Greenberg said. “While six weeks can be a long time in politics, it’s also a very short period of time to become known to 12 million voters and earn their support. With classic ‘rose garden’ strategies, the three incumbents are trying to run the clock out for six more weeks.”
Voters Say Economic Issues Dominate as they Determine their Vote; Threats to Democracy & Crime Next
“Economic issues are one of the top two most important for 50% of voters as they determine who to support in November. Threats to democracy and crime are the next most important issues for voters – for Republicans, crime comes second, while democracy is second for Democrats and independents. National gun policy, abortion and healthcare are important but second tier issues for most voters,” Greenberg said.
Odds & Ends
- By a 55-26% margin, voters say they intend to vote yes on the $4.2 billion environmental bond act on November’s ballot. It has support from three-quarters of Democrats and a plurality of independents, while Republicans oppose it 50-24%. It is overwhelmingly supported downstate, and it is supported 46-34% upstate.
- Overall, New York voters want to see the Democrats retain control of the US House, 54-39%. Not surprisingly, 84% of Democrats and 85% of Republicans want to see their party control the House, while independents are closely divided, leaning Democrat, 46-42%. In August, Democrats were favored 55-40%.
- While more than three-quarters of Democrats support President Biden’s decision to cancel up to $20,000 in student debt for some borrowers, more than three-quarters of Republicans and a majority of independents oppose it, resulting in modest overall statewide support of 53-44%.
- Although New Yorkers continue to think the state is headed in the wrong direction, 47-41%, that’s a net seven-point improvement from August when voters said the state was headed in the wrong direction, 50-36%. When it comes to the country, voters say it’s headed in the wrong direction 59-31%. However, in August that view was held by a 71-19% margin, an improvement of net 24 points.
- Overall, voters are pessimistic, 52-43%, about the state of our democracy and the future of the country. While partisan differences exist, they are not extreme, as they are on many issues and candidates. Democrats lean optimistic, 50-47%, compared to the pessimism of Republicans, 59-35%, and independents, 53-40%. At the same time, three-quarters of Democrats, two-thirds of independents and 61% of Republicans are optimistic about their own and their family’s future. New Yorkers say they’re optimistic about their futures 69-25%.
- Biden’s favorability and job approval ratings both bounced up this month and both are now in positive territory. He has a 51-46% favorability rating, up from 48-48% in August. His job approval rating is 53-46%, up from negative 47-51% in August.
- Former President Donald Trump has a 32-63% favorability rating, identical to August. He’s viewed unfavorably by 89% of Democrats and 61% of independents, while Republicans view him favorably 73-23%. By a 54-39% margin, voters say that search of Trump’s home was a legitimate effort to protect national security rather than a politically motivated attack. More than three-quarters of Democrats and 50% of independents say it was legitimate, while 77% of Republicans say it was a politically motivated attack.
- New Yorkers continue to oppose the SCOTUS Dobbs decision overturning Roe, 67-27%, little changed from 68-25% in August. Similarly, 72% say abortion should be always or mostly legal, compared to 21% who say it should be mostly or always illegal. In August it was 74-21%.
This Siena College Poll was conducted September 16-25, 2022, among 655 likely New York State voters, with a margin of error of + 3.9 percentage points including the design effects resulting from weighting. Calls were made to a stratified weighted sample of voters from the L-2 Voter list via both land and cell phones. The data was weighted by party, age, race/ethnicity, education, region, gender and voter likelihood, a computed score that combines voter history, stated voter likelihood and modeled turnout by respondent.The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social, and cultural research primarily in NYS. SCRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, call Steve Greenberg at (518) 469-9858. For survey crosstabs: www.Siena.edu/SCRI/SNY.