Spectrum News / Siena College Ohio Poll:
- DeWine Favorability, 53-37%; Whaley Favorability, 20-25%
- Voters Say Economy is Most Important Issue in Determining Vote; Threats to Democracy, Immigration & Abortion Next Most Important
Loudonville, NY. Incumbent Republican Governor Mike DeWine has a 23-point lead, 55-32%, over Democratic challenger Nan Whaley. In the race to replace retiring Republican Senator Rob Portman, Democratic Representative Tim Ryan and Republican J.D. Vance are separated by three points, with Ryan slightly ahead, 46-43%, according to a new Spectrum News/Siena College poll of likely Ohio voters.
DeWine has a 53-37% favorability rating, while Whaley has a negative 20-25% favorability rating, with more than half of voters either not knowing her or having no opinion about her. Ryan has a 38-33% favorability rating compared to Vance’s negative 32-42% favorability rating. Economic issues are at the top of the list for 41% of voters as they determine their vote this year, followed by threats to democracy, abortion, and immigration.
“Although he won a tight 50-47% victory in 2018, DeWine is sitting in the catbird’s seat with less than six weeks until Election Day 2022, holding a 23-point lead over Whaley. He has the support of 89% of Republicans, 58% of independents and even 19% of Democrats,” said Steven Greenberg, Siena College pollster. “Additionally, DeWine has a strong 53-37% favorability rating, including being viewed favorably by one-third of Democrats, compared to Whaley’s tepid 20-25% favorability rating, with more than half of the electorate not having an opinion about her.
“Although there is a gender gap, both women and men support DeWine, men by 37 points and women by 10 points,” Greenberg said. “Whaley trails in every region of the state by margins of between 10 and 35 points. She does lead among Black voters 56-30%, however, white voters back DeWine 61-28%.”
“Ryan and Vance are locked in a tight battle that seems likely to remain a barnburner right up to November 8. Ryan – who won 70% of the primary vote – has the support of 95% of Democrats, bettering the 87% Republican support for Vance – who won 32% of the primary vote. Additionally, Ryan has a 47-35% lead with independent voters,” Greenberg said. “Men are with Vance by 13 points, while women support Ryan by 20 points. White voters support Vance by 49-41%, however Black voters back Ryan 84-7%.”
Economic Issues Dominate Voters’ November Decision Making
“Economic issues are by far the dominant election issues for Republicans and independents, and the top issue for Democrats, although they put threats to democracy closely behind,” Greenberg said. “While abortion doesn’t make it into the top five issues for men, it’s tied with democracy as the second most important issue for women. Black voters say racial justice is their second top issue.”
Odds & Ends
- Voters oppose the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade 60-32%, 48% strongly oppose. Republicans support it two-to-one, but 88% of Democrats and 64% of independents oppose the decision. By a narrower 55-40% margin, voters oppose current Ohio law making abortion illegal after the fetal heartbeat can be detected. Men are closely divided, while women oppose it 65-31%.
- There is overwhelming support for universal background checks, 86-11%, and 53-43% support for banning assault weapons, although Republicans are strongly opposed, and independents closely divided. Voters split on arming teachers in schools, 49-48%, barely tilting to support. Three-quarters of Democrats and a majority of independents oppose it; three-quarters of Republicans support it.
- The race for Chief Justice of the Ohio Supreme Court is a 40-40% tossup between Democrat Jennifer Brunner and Republican Sharon Kennedy, who are each essentially unknown to three-quarters of voters. While each holds their party, independents are leaning Brunner, 39-30%.
- Voters support legalizing recreational marijuana 60-37%. A small majority, 51-46%, oppose President Biden’s decision to cancel up to $20,000 in student loans for certain borrowers. There is overwhelming support, 82-8%, for a constitutional amendment to require courts to consider a person’s criminal record and other factors in setting bail, and 59-38% support for an amendment prohibiting local governments from allowing noncitizens to vote in local elections.
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This Spectrum News/Siena College survey was conducted September 18-22, 2022 by telephone calls in English to 642 likely Ohio voters. Telephone sampling was conducted via a weighted stratified dual frame sample of landline and cell phone drawn from the L-2 database of registered voters. Data was statistically adjusted by age, race/ethnicity, education, regional vote pattern in the 2020 election, a combined measure of stated and derived vote likelihood, and gender to ensure representativeness. It has an overall margin of error of + 4.4 percentage points including the design effects resulting from weighting. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social, and cultural research primarily in NYS. SCRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, call Steve Greenberg at (518) 469-9858. For survey crosstabs: https://scri.siena.edu/category/spectrum/
