The New York Times / Siena College Battleground Poll: Nevada

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  • Biden 49% – Trump 43%
  • 10/7: Biden 48% – Trump 42%
  • 9/12: Biden 46% – Trump 42%
  • Two-Thirds of Nevadans Have Already Cast Their Ballots

Press Release     Crosstabs

Loudonville, NY. Former Vice President Joe Biden continues to lead President Donald Trump in Nevada by six points, 49-43 percent, compared to a 48-42 percent lead three weeks ago, according to The New York Times/Siena College polls of likely Nevada voters released today.

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“In a state that Hillary Clinton carried by only two points four years ago, Biden has held a small but steady lead throughout the fall, in this state where Democrats slightly outnumber Republicans,” said Don Levy, Director of the Siena College Research Institute. “While Trump has closed the gap and runs even with Biden among independent voters, Biden – with 96 percent support from Democrats – is doing a better job holding his base than Trump, who has the support of 89 percent of Republicans.

“Men favor Trump by seven points, up from three points earlier this month, while Biden leads among women by 18 points, up from 14 points,” Levy said. “White voters continue to support Trump by 11 points, although those with a college degree support Biden by five points. Non-white voters, more than one-third of the electorate, back Biden big, 66-24 percent, up from 61-27 percent three weeks ago.”

“It is worth noting that older voters, those 65 and up, have flipped. These voters, who make up about one-quarter of all voters, previously supported Trump by a narrow 49-45 percent, and now support Biden by a slightly wider 51-45 percent,” Levy said.

Biden has a 51-44 percent favorability rating, little changed from 51-46 percent three weeks ago. Trump’s favorability rating is negative 45-52 percent, little changed from 44-52 percent previously. His job approval rating is negative 43-51 percent, down slightly from 46-51 percent.

“With still a week until election day, a whopping 65 percent of Nevadans have already pulled the proverbial lever and made their choice. While three-quarters of Democrats have already voted, so, too, have six in ten Republicans and independents. Half of voters under 30 have already voted, as have three-quarters of those over 65,” Levy said. “Among those who voted, Biden has a commanding 55-38 percent, or 17-point, lead. Those who’ve yet to vote favor Trump by 14 points, but they only account for about one-third of voters.

“As the candidates continue to fight for the votes of the one-third of Nevadans who have not yet voted, the issue of getting out voters for the final push becomes a little more challenging for the campaigns. Kind of like trying to pick out only the green M&Ms from a freshly opened bag,” Levy said.

This New York Times/Siena College survey of Nevada was conducted October 23-26, 2020 by telephone calls in English and Spanish to 809 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points. Calls were made to a stratified weighted sample of voters from the L-2 Voter list via both land and cell phones. The data was weighted by party, age, race/ethnicity, education, region, gender and voter likelihood, a computed score that combines voter history, stated voter likelihood and modeled turnout by respondent. Polling support for this project provided by Reconnaissance Market Research. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social, and cultural research. SCRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, please call Don Levy at 518-944-0482. Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at: For additional methodological information, click here.