- The New York Times / Siena College Battleground Polls:
- Minnesota: Biden 50% – Trump 41%
- Nevada: Biden 46% – Trump 42%
- New Hampshire: Biden 45% – Trump 42%
- Wisconsin: Biden 48% – Trump 43%
- Biden Favorability Rating Outpaces Trump’s in All Four States
- Voters in Nevada Say Law and Order More Important Issue in Presidential Race than Pandemic; Voters in NH, MN, WI Evenly Divided
- Majority of Voters in NV, NH, MN Say Racism in Criminal Justice System is Bigger Problem than Riots in American Cities; Wisconsin Voters Divided Down the Middle
Loudonville, NY. Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by between three and nine points in four key battleground states. In Minnesota, Biden leads Trump by nine points; he leads by five points in Wisconsin, four points in Nevada, and three points in New Hampshire, according to The New York Times/Siena College polls of likely voters in those four states released today.
“With just 52 days until Election Day, Biden has a solid nine-point lead and support from 50 percent of likely voters in Minnesota, far outpacing Hillary Clinton’s 1.5 percentage point victory over Trump in 2016,” said Don Levy, Director of the Siena College Research Institute. “Trump is breakeven with men and Biden leads by 18 points with women. Independents side with Biden 52-33 percent. White voters with a college degree are with Biden by 26 points, and those without a degree favor Trump by 10 points.
“Nevada appears to be headed to another tight race. Biden’s four-point lead is comparable the 2.5 percentage point victory for Clinton in 2016. Men favor Trump by seven points while women favor Biden by 16 points. Voters of color favor Biden 58-24 percent, while white voters side with Trump 52-41 percent. However, while Trump leads two-to-one with whites without a college degree, Biden leads by 18 points with whites with college degrees,” Levy said.
“In 2016, the Granite State went to Clinton by a razor-thin three-tenths of a percentage point. This year is shaping up to be another barnburner with Biden currently holding a narrow three-point lead. Independents, the largest group of voters in New Hampshire, are tied 41-41 percent. Men favor Trump by 15 points, while women favor Biden by 19 points. White voters with a college degree overwhelmingly support Biden by 36 points and whites without a college degree back Trump by 14 points,” Levy said.
“In Wisconsin, where Trump won in 2016 by fewer than 23,000 votes out of about three million cast, Biden holds a five-point 48-43 percent lead. Biden has a 14-point lead with independents, a huge lead with younger voters and an 11-point lead with voters over 65. Trump has a low double-digit lead with voters between 35 and 65. Biden’s lead with white voters with a college degree is considerably larger than Trump’s lead with white voters without a college degree,” Levy said.
Biden Viewed Favorably by Small Majority & Trump Unfavorably by Small Majority in All 4
“Biden is viewed favorably by 51-52 percent of voters in all four states, while Trump is viewed unfavorably by 51-53 percent in all four states,” Levy said. “A majority of voters in each state has a favorable view of the Black Lives Matter movement by margins of between nine and 16 points.”
3 States’ Voters Divided on Most Important Issue – Pandemic or Law and Order; Nevada Says Law
“Voters in Minnesota, New Hampshire and Wisconsin are virtually evenly divided on whether the more important issue in the presidential race is addressing the pandemic or addressing law and order. Voters in Nevada say law and order by 13 points,” Levy said. “Not surprisingly, in all four states, Democrats overwhelmingly say pandemic, while Republicans overwhelmingly say law and order. Independents in Wisconsin and New Hampshire are evenly divided, while independents in Minnesota say pandemic and those in Nevada say law and order.”
MN, NH, NV Voters Say Racism in Criminal Justice is Bigger Problem than Riots; WI Divided
“By huge margins in all four states, Democrats say racism in criminal justice is the bigger problem facing the country, while Republicans say it’s riots in American cities. And in all four states, a majority or plurality of independents say racism is the bigger problem,” Levy said.
“Biden currently leads in each of these battleground states, but in three – New Hampshire, Nevada and Wisconsin – Trump is within the margin of error,” Levy said. “Most voters say that their minds are made up but with about ten percent remaining currently undecided or leaning towards a third party candidate, the outcome in these states is far from determined. As always, turnout, turnout, turnout is crucial. However, this year turnout will look different than ever before. About a third of voters in Nevada, Minnesota and Wisconsin plan to vote by mail, as do about a quarter in New Hampshire. The election is in full swing.”
This New York Times/Siena College survey of Minnesota was conducted September 8-10, 2020 by telephone calls in English to 814 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points. The survey of Nevada was conducted September 8-10, 2020 by telephone calls in English and Spanish to 462 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 5.3 percentage points. The survey of New Hampshire was conducted September 8-11, 2020 by telephone calls in English to 445 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 5.5 percentage points. The survey of Wisconsin was conducted September 8-10, 2020 by telephone calls in English to 760 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 4.7 percentage points. Calls were made to a stratified weighted sample of voters from the L-2 Voter list via both land and cell phones. The data was weighted by party, age, race/ethnicity, education, region, gender and voter likelihood, a computed score that combines voter history, stated voter likelihood and modeled turnout by respondent. Polling support for this project provided by Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College, M. Davis and Co., Reconnaissance Market Research, and The Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social and cultural research. SCRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, please call Don Levy at 518-944-0482. Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at: www.Siena.edu/SCRI/SNY. For additional methodological information, click here.