The New York Times Upshot / Siena College Virginia 02 Poll:
Incumbent Taylor Leads Democrat Luria 49-41%
Voters Prefer Republicans to Control House 49-42%; Give President Trump Negative 44-48% Job Approval Rating
Favorability Ratings: Luria, 36-31 Percent; Taylor, 51-33 Percent
Loudonville, NY. Incumbent Republican Representative Scott Taylor leads his Democratic challenger, retired naval officer, Elaine Luria, 49-41 percent, according to a new New York Times Upshot/Siena College poll of likely Virginia 2nd Congressional District voters. Luria has a 36-31 percent favorability rating, compared to a 51-33 percent favorability rating for Taylor.
Likely voters in this Virginia Beach-area district prefer Republicans rather than Democrats control the House of Representatives next year by seven points, 49-42 percent. Voters give President Trump a negative job approval rating with 44 percent approving the job he is doing and 48 percent disapproving and they prefer their next representative serve as a check on President Trump rather than support him and his agenda by 48-42 percent.
This New York Times Upshot/Siena College Poll is part of an ongoing project polling pivotal Congressional races across the country. The data is published live on https://www.nytimes.com/section/upshot. This press release highlights the key findings and provides access in the cross-tabulations to the entire survey as well as how demographic groups answered each question.
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This New York Times Upshot/Siena College VA 02 survey was conducted September 26-October 1, 2018 by telephone calls in English to 500 likely VA 02 voters. This poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points. Calls were made to a stratified weighted sample of voters from the L-2 Voter list via both land and cell phones. . A likely-to-vote probability was computed for each respondent based on their stated likelihood to vote as well as by virtue of the imputation of a turnout probability score based on past voting behavior. This combined probability to vote score was applied as a weight along with a weight that considered party, age, race/ethnicity, education, region within the district and gender. Polling support for this project provided by Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College, Reconnaissance Market Research, M. Davis & Company, The Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida and The Survey Research Center at the University of Waterloo. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social and cultural research primarily in NYS. SCRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, please call Steven Greenberg at 518-469-9858 or Don Levy at 518-783-2901. Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at: www.Siena.edu/SCRI/SNY.