The New York Times Upshot / Siena College New Mexico 02 Poll:
Democrat Torres Small 46% Republican Herrell 45%
Voters Prefer Republicans Control House 50-43%; Give President Trump Breakeven 47-47% Job Approval Rating
Favorability Ratings: Herrell, 23-20 Percent; Torres Small, 33-17 Percent
Loudonville, NY. Democrat water rights lawyer, Xochitl Torres Small is locked in a too early to call race with Republican State Representative Yvette Herrell, 46-45 percent, according to a new New York Times Upshot/Siena College poll of likely New Mexico 2nd Congressional District voters. Herrell has a 23-20 percent favorability rating, compared to a 33-17 percent favorability rating for Torres Small.
Likely voters in this southern New Mexico district prefer Republicans rather than Democrats control the House of Representatives next year by 50-43 percent. Voters give President Trump a breakeven job approval rating with 47 percent approving the job he is doing and 47 percent disapproving and by 50-47 percent they oppose an immigration bill that would reduce legal immigration and provide funds for a wall along the U.S.-Mexican border.
This New York Times Upshot/Siena College Poll is part of an ongoing project polling pivotal Congressional races across the country. The data is published live on https://www.nytimes.com/section/upshot. This press release highlights the key findings and provides access in the cross-tabulations to the entire survey as well as how demographic groups answered each question.
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This New York Times Upshot/Siena College NM 02 survey was conducted September 13-18, 2018 by telephone calls in English and Spanish to 503 NM 02 voters. This poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percentage points. Calls were made to a stratified weighted sample of voters from the L-2 Voter list via both land and cell phones. A likely-to-vote probability was computed for each respondent based on their stated likelihood to vote as well as by virtue of the imputation of a turnout probability score based on past voting behavior. This combined probability to vote score was applied as a weight along with a weight that considered party, age, race/ethnicity, education, region within the district and gender. Polling support for this project provided by Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College, Reconnaissance Market Research, M. Davis & Company, and The Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social and cultural research primarily in NYS. SCRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, please call Steven Greenberg at 518-469-9858 or Don Levy at 518-783-2901. Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at: www.Siena.edu/SCRI/SNY.