Florida 26: Republican Incumbent Curbelo 47% Democrat Mucarsel-Powell 44%

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  • The New York Times Upshot / Siena College Florida 26 Poll:

  • Republican Incumbent Curbelo 47% Democrat Mucarsel-Powell 44%

  • Voters Prefer Democrats Control House 50-43%; Give President Trump Large Negative 39-54% Job Approval Rating

  • Favorability Ratings: Mucarsel-Powell, 19-13 Percent; Curbelo, 52-27 Percent

Press Release     Crosstabs

florida chartLoudonville, NY. Incumbent Republican Congressman Carlos Curbelo holds a three-point lead over his Democratic challenger, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, 47-44 percent, according to a new New York Times Upshot/Siena College poll of likely Florida 26th Congressional District voters. Mucarsel-Powell has a 19-13 percent favorability rating, compared to a 52-27 percent favorability rating for Curbelo.

Likely voters in this south Florida district that includes Miami and Key West prefer Democrats rather than Republicans control the House of Representatives next year by 50-43 percent. Voters give President Trump a large negative job approval rating with 39 percent approving the job he is doing and 54 percent disapproving. In this heavily Hispanic district, voters by 56-39 percent oppose an immigration bill that would reduce legal immigration and provide funds for a wall along the U.S.-Mexican border.

This New York Times Upshot/Siena College Poll is part of an ongoing project polling pivotal Congressional races across the country. The data is published live on https://www.nytimes.com/section/upshot. This press release highlights the key findings and provides access in the cross-tabulations to the entire survey as well as how demographic groups answered each question.
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This New York Times Upshot/Siena College FL 26 survey was conducted September 12-14, 2018 by telephone calls in English and Spanish to 509 FL 26 voters. This poll has a margin of error of +/- 5.0 percentage points. Calls were made to a stratified weighted sample of voters from the L-2 Voter list via both land and cell phones. A likely-to-vote probability was computed for each respondent based on their stated likelihood to vote as well as by virtue of the imputation of a turnout probability score based on past voting behavior. This combined probability to vote score was applied as a weight along with a weight that considered party, age, race/ethnicity, education, region within the district and gender. Polling support for this project provided by Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College, Reconnaissance Market Research, M. Davis & Company, and The Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social and cultural research primarily in NYS. SCRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, please call Steven Greenberg at 518-469-9858 or Don Levy at 518-783-2901. Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at: www.Siena.edu/SCRI/SNY.

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