Time Warner Cable News / Siena College 19th Congressional District Poll:
Faso Opens 6-Point Lead Over Teachout, 48-42%
81% of Dems: Teachout; 80% of Reps: Faso; Inds: Faso by 13 Points
Trump Maintains 5-Point Lead Over Clinton, 43-38%
Loudonville, NY. Republican John Faso has opened a six-point lead over Democrat Zephyr Teachout and leads 48-42 percent, up from a razor thin 43-42 percent Faso lead in September, according to a new Time Warner Cable News/Siena College poll of likely 19th C.D. voters released today. Teachout extended her lead with Democrats, now leading 81-14 percent, while Faso extended his lead with Republicans to 80-11 percent. Independents had barely leaned toward Faso 42-41 percent previously and now back him 50-37 percent.
In the race for President, Donald Trump has a 43-38 percent lead over Hillary Clinton, exactly where this race was six weeks ago, while Chuck Schumer upped his lead to 60-34 percent over Wendy Long.
“Thanks to independent voters, Faso takes a six-point lead in to the closing days of this hotly contested and closely watched congressional race. Teachout and Faso both had their parties’ voters locked in six weeks ago and that’s only intensified as each has at least 80 percent support among their respective parties. However, in this district closely divided between Republicans and Democrats, independent voters have moved into the Faso camp by a 13-point margin, after being nearly evenly divided,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg.
“Faso has a 12-point lead with men, down slightly from 14 points, however, he eliminated Teachout’s previous 11-point lead with women and now the two are tied. Teachout leads by 21-points among those with college degrees, while Faso has a two-to-one edge among those without a college degree,” Greenberg said.
In the part of the district closest to the Capital Region, Faso extended his lead from 19 to 23 points. In the Southern Tier portion of the district, Teachout nearly evens the race, turning Faso’s five-point lead into one point. And in Ulster and Dutchess Counties, Faso cut Teachout’s 15-point lead to three points.
“While both candidates have become more known – as each of the candidates’ commercials have been seen or heard by more than two-thirds of voters – Faso has a nearly break-even favorability rating, while Teachout is viewed unfavorably by a seven-point margin, having previously been viewed favorably by an 11-point margin,” Greenberg said. “By a 36-30 percent margin, voters say Faso, not Teachout, is waging the more negative campaign.”
Trump’s 5-Point Lead Over Clinton Remains the Same; Schumer Extends Lead Over Long to 26 Points
“Six weeks ago, Trump led Clinton 43-38 percent. Today, he leads 43-38 percent. In September, Clinton had a negative 38-59 percent favorability rating, identical to today’s, while Trump’s negative favorability rating stands at 42-54 percent, from 42-55 percent in September. Both candidates have the support of 75 percent of voters from their own party, however, Trump has an 11-point lead with independents,” Greenberg said. “With the support of one-third of Republicans, and a two-to-one lead with independents, Schumer is coasting.
“Turnout. Independents. It looks like that’s what this race is going to come down to in the final days. Can Teachout win back support among independent voters – who are less committed to their current choice of candidate than are Democrats or Republicans? Which side will do a better job of getting their voters to the polls and ensuring that they vote on this crucial down ballot race? The answer to those two questions will likely determine the next Representative from this district,” Greenberg said. “Faso heads into the final days with a small lead and an even smaller enrollment edge. He’s looking to run out the clock. Still a few days to go.”
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This Time Warner Cable News/Siena College 19th C.D. survey was conducted November 1-3, 2016 by telephone calls in English to 605 likely 19th C.D. voters. This poll has a margin of error of + 4.0 percentage points. Calls were made to a stratified weighted sample of voters from the L-2 Voter list via both land and cell phones. A likely-to-vote probability was computed for each respondent based on their stated likelihood to vote and interest in the upcoming election as well as by virtue of the imputation of a turnout probability score based on past voting behavior applied to their specific voting history. This probability to vote was applied as a weight along with a weight that considered party registration, age, region, and gender. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social and cultural research primarily in NYS. SRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, please call Steven Greenberg at 518-469-9858. Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at: www.Siena.edu/SRI/SNY.