Clinton Carries 17-Point Lead Over Trump Into Final
Days; Now Leads 51-34 Percent, Tightening a
Little from 54-30 Percent Three Weeks Ago
Schumer Heading to 40+ Point Victory; Leads Long 67-25 Percent
Loudonville, NY. Hillary Clinton continues to lead Donald Trump by double digits, although the gap has narrowed a little to 17 points (51-34 percent), down from 24 points (54-30 percent), according to a new Siena College poll of likely New York State registered voters released today. Chuck Schumer has a towering 42-point, 67-25 percent, lead over Wendy Long.
“As a result of her continued strong performance with Democrats, Clinton carries a solid double digit lead into the final days of the 2016 campaign. Trump picked up ground, pulling even with Clinton with independents and in the downstate suburbs,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg. “The gender gap widened as Clinton’s lead with men fell from 16 points three weeks ago to five points today, however, she continues to lead with women by 28 points, down slightly from 31 points.
“White voters are nearly evenly divided, while Clinton continues to garner an overwhelming 86 percent support from black voters and 71 percent from Latino voters,” Greenberg said. “Clinton’s favorability rating is barely positive, 49-47 percent, down a little from last month, while Trump continues to have a negative favorability rating, 34-63 percent, up from negative 29-68 percent.”
“Among the 49 percent of likely voters who say they are not voting for Clinton, 57 percent – or 28 percent of all voters – say they would be very upset if she won,” Greenberg said. “Among the 66 percent who say they are not voting for Trump, 68 percent – or 45 percent of all voters – say they would be very upset if he won.
“Schumer has the support of 86 percent of Democrats, 55 percent of independents and even 42 percent of Republicans,” Greenberg said. When a Democrat has the support of 42 percent of Republicans, do I need to say anything more?
“By a significantly narrower-than-enrollment margin – largely because independent voters side with the Republicans – voters say they want to see the Democrats take control of the House of Representatives, but only by a 51-41 percent margin,” Greenberg said.
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This Siena College Poll was conducted November 3-4, 2016 by telephone calls conducted in English to 617 self-identified likely New York State voters. Respondent sampling was initiated by asking for the youngest male in the household. It has an overall margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points including the design effects resulting from weighting. Sampling was conducted via a stratified dual frame sample of landline and cell phone telephone numbers drawn from the L-2 Voter File augmented by an RDD sample of cell phones supplied by Survey Sampling International. The sample was drawn to reflect known population patterns. Data was statistically adjusted by age, party, region, race and gender to ensure representativeness. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social and cultural research primarily in NYS. SRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, call Steve Greenberg at (518) 469-9858. For survey cross-tabs: www.Siena.edu/SRI/SNY.