Clinton Maintains Large Lead Over Trump, 51-30 Percent;
21-Point Lead in 4-Way Matchup Down a Bit from 25 Points
Voters Overwhelmingly Say Climate Change is Significant Threat to the Planet & Favor Pathway to Citizenship for Undocumented Immigrants; Support for Obamacare, Gun Control, Federal Stimulation for Economy
Schumer Ups Already Huge Lead Over Long; Now Leads 69-23 Percent
Loudonville, NY. Hillary Clinton now holds a 21-point lead over Donald Trump, 51-30 percent (down a little from a 25-point, 50-25 percent lead last month), with eight percent for Gary Johnson and three percent for Jill Stein, according to a new Siena College poll of likely New York State registered voters released today.
By more than three-to-one, likely New York voters both support a pathway for citizenship for those now here illegally and believe that climate change is a significant threat to our planet. By smaller margins, they want to keep and improve, rather than repeal and replace, Obamacare (by 18 points); consider themselves gun control supporters, rather than 2nd Amendment supporters (by 15 points); and, want the federal government to do more to stimulate the economy, rather than lessening its role (by nine points). Senator Chuck Schumer has a commanding 46-point lead over Wendy Long, up from 39 points last month.
“Clinton holds her base better than Trump holds his. She leads with Democrats 75-10 percent, while Trump holds a 67-16 percent lead with Republicans. Independent voters are closely divided, with 39 percent supporting Clinton and 37 percent backing Trump,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg. “Clinton leads by a whopping 52 points in New York City and six points upstate; they are virtually even in the downstate suburbs.
“The gender gap has narrowed and Clinton now leads by 22 points with women, down from 36 points last month, and 18 points with men, up from 10 points. While the two run virtually even with white voters, Clinton has the support of 85 percent of black voters and 86 percent of Latinos,” Greenberg said. “She leads by 26 points with voters under 35, and by 16 points with those 55 and older. She leads by eight points with Catholics, 14 points with Jews and 21 points with Protestants.”
Clinton has a 52-46 percent favorability rating, virtually unchanged from 51-46 percent last month. Trump’s negative 29-68 percent favorability rating is up from a negative 24-72 percent last month. By a 58-39 percent margin (60-37 percent last month) voters say Clinton is not honest and trustworthy. By a larger 67-29 percent margin (69-28 percent last month) they say Trump is not honest and trustworthy. By 50-39 percent, voters say Clinton is more honest and trustworthy than Trump (down from 54-38 percent last month).
“Three-quarters of Democrats have a favorable view of Clinton. By a 23-point margin they think she is honest and nearly three-quarters say she’s more honest than Trump. Nearly six in ten Republicans view Trump favorably. By a 14-point margin they think he is honest and more than three-quarters say he’s more honest than Clinton,” Greenberg said. “Independent voters view both candidates unfavorably – Clinton by 13 points and Trump by 24 points. They say they don’t trust either – Clinton by 51 points and Trump by 23 points – but by a narrow six-point margin, independents say Trump is more honest and trustworthy than Clinton.
“On several key national issues, likely voters in traditionally ‘blue’ New York identify far more with the positions taken by the Democratic nominee, rather than the Republican nominee,” Greenberg said. “Voters overwhelmingly support giving undocumented immigrants a pathway to citizenship rather than deporting them, 76-20 percent, which includes a strong majority of Republicans. And by a similar 76-21 percent margin, voters, also including a large majority of Republicans, say that climate change is a significant threat to the planet rather than not real nor based on science.
“Democrats overwhelmingly support keeping and improving Obamacare, while Republicans overwhelmingly want it repealed and replaced. Independents are closely divided. More than two-thirds of Democrats identify more as gun control supporters, while nearly two-thirds of Republicans identify more as 2nd Amendment supporters, and independents divide equally. Two-thirds of Democrats say the federal government should do more to stimulate the economy and two-thirds of Republicans and a majority of independents say the federal government should lessen its role and give businesses more freedom to operate,” Greenberg said.
Schumer Ups Already Huge Lead Over Little Known Long
Schumer has a 64-26 percent favorability rating, up from 58-31 percent last month. Long has a 13-11 percent favorability rating, with more than three-quarters not knowing enough about her to have an opinion, little changed from 11-12 percent last month. Schumer leads Long 69-23 percent, up from 63-24 percent last month.
“Schumer’s current 46-point lead matches the margin that Senator Kirsten Gillibrand beat Long by four years ago, 72-26 percent,” Greenberg said. “He leads by 79 points with Democrats and 34 points with independents. Long has the support of a majority of Republicans – barely – among whom she leads Schumer 51-37 percent.”
Cuomo Favorability Up a Little; Job Performance & Re-Elect Down a Little
Governor Andrew Cuomo has a 57-39 percent favorability rating, up a little from 53-40 percent last month, and his job performance rating is a negative 41-57 percent, down a little from negative 43-55 percent last month. If he runs for re-election in 2018, 45 percent say they’re prepared to re-elect him, compared to 49 percent who would prefer ‘someone else,’ down a little from 46-47 in August.
“In last month’s Siena poll, Cuomo’s favorability rating was down a little and his job performance rating was up a little. This month we see just the opposite,” Greenberg said. “However, the pattern of the last two plus years continues. Cuomo’s ratings with voters remain largely stagnant over the course of his second term – he’s viewed favorably by a small majority of voters, and a majority of voters give him a negative job performance rating.”
Voters View of the State Legislature Is as Good as It’s Been
The State Senate has a 48-41 percent favorability rating – the best it’s ever been – up from 41-45 percent last month. By a 51-38 percent margin, voters say they’re inclined to re-elect their State Senator, up from 46-39 percent last month. The State Assembly has a 44-40 percent favorability rating – within one point of its best ever rating – up a little from 41-40 percent last month. Voters are inclined to re-elect their Assemblymember by 46-38 percent margin, up slightly from 42-36 percent last month.
“Legislative elections are run district by district and not statewide, however, seven weeks from election day, voters view the Legislature as favorably today as they have at any time in the last decade and a majority of New Yorkers are prepared to re-elect their State Senator and a plurality are prepared to re-elect their Assemblymember. Siena will be taking a closer look at key State Senate battleground seats later this fall,” Greenberg said.
Voters Are Optimistic About Direction of NYS and Less Pessimistic About Direction of Country
By a 53-38 percent margin, voters say New York is on the right track, rather than heading in the wrong direction, up from 47-40 percent last month. A small majority say the country is headed in the wrong direction, 51-41 percent, down from a 54-36 percent majority last month who said the country was headed in the wrong direction.
“Nearly six in ten downstaters say the state is on the right track, while upstaters are closely divided. It’s the most optimistic New Yorkers have been about the direction of the state since January 2014,” Greenberg said. “New York City voters are evenly divided on the direction of the country, while a majority of the rest of the state feels the country is headed in the wrong direction.”
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This Siena College Poll was conducted September 11-15, 2016 by telephone calls conducted in English to 600 self-identified likely New York State voters. Respondent sampling was initiated by asking for the youngest male in the household. It has an overall margin of error of +/- 5.0 percentage points including the design effects resulting from weighting. Sampling was conducted via a stratified dual frame sample of landline and cell phone telephone numbers drawn from the L-2 Voter File augmented by an RDD sample of cell phones supplied by Survey Sampling International. The sample was drawn to reflect known population patterns. Data was statistically adjusted by age, party, region, race and gender to ensure representativeness. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social and cultural research primarily in NYS. SRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, call Steve Greenberg at (518) 469-9858. For survey cross-tabs:www.Siena.edu/SRI/SNY.