This Poll Must Be Cited As: NY1/Siena College Poll
Rangel Leads Espaillat By 13 Points – 47-34% – Heading Into Home Stretch in 13th CD Democratic Primary
Espaillat’s 24-Point Latino Lead Doesn’t Offset Rangel’s 70-Point Lead with Blacks
Voters Overwhelmingly Say Race/Ethnicity Not a Factor in Candidate Support
Loudonville, NY. Heading into the home stretch of this epic Democratic primary rematch, twenty-two-term Representative Charlie Rangel has widened his lead over State Senator Adriano Espaillat to 13 points, up from nine points last month. Rangel has the support of 47 percent of likely primary voters, compared to 34 percent for Espaillat, with Michael Walrond getting seven percent support and Yolanda Garcia garnering four percent, according to a NY1/Siena College poll of likely 13th C.D. Democratic primary voters released today.
If the primary election was held today, who would you vote for?
Rangel has a 76-6 percent lead among black voters (up from 68-5 percent last month). Espaillat has a 53-29 percent lead among Latino voters (down from 52-25 percent). White voters favor Rangel 43-38 percent (he trailed 35-36 percent). Rangel has a 14-point lead in the larger Manhattan portion of the district (up from 10 points) and a six-point lead in the Bronx (up from three points).
“With less than a week until voters go to the polls, the long-time incumbent appears to be holding off the challenger who’s making his second run. Rangel has slightly widened his lead over Espaillat in the last month, and leads among all demographic groups other than Latinos, Catholics and voters under 50-years-old,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg.
“Over the last month, Rangel has slightly widened his lead in Manhattan, which comprises the vast majority of the district, and slightly increased his lead in the Bronx as well. He has nearly identical leads with both men and women. And while Espaillat has a six-point lead with voters under 50-years-old, virtually the same as the five-point lead he had with these voters last month, Rangel has increased his lead with voters 50 and older from 15 points last month to 21 points today,” Greenberg said.
“Seventy-two percent of Rangel supporters say they are absolutely certain to stick with their candidate, while only 62 percent of Espaillat supporters say that there is no chance they will change their minds,” Greenberg said. “By a nearly two-to-one margin – virtually unchanged from last month – voters believe Rangel is likely to win the race. And voters are evenly divided about which candidate’s been waging the more negative campaign, with, not surprisingly, Espaillat supporters saying it’s Rangel and Rangel supporters saying Espaillat.
“Rangel continues to be more well-known than Espaillat and has a 56-30 percent favorability rating, up slightly from last month. While Espaillat has a 42-25 percent favorability rating, he remains unknown to nearly a third of likely voters,” Greenberg said. “And unfortunately for Espaillat, while voters’ familiarity with him has increased, most of that increase has been on the unfavorable side.
“By a 57-32 percent margin, voters continue to say Rangel’s ‘age helps him have the experience and wisdom to do a good job in Congress’ rather than ‘his age might make it too difficult for him to do the work required of a member of Congress,’ virtually unchanged from 57-35 percent last month,” Greenberg said.
“The vast majority of likely voters – Latino, black and white – say that the race or ethnicity of the candidates makes no difference to them, with at least 84 percent of every demographic group saying that,” Greenberg said.
“Two years ago, only 15 percent of registered Democrats voted. If this race sees a similarly low turnout it will likely be decided by which campaign better turns out its supporters. Espaillat has very little time to close a significant gap and the movement in the last month indicates how large a challenge that is,” Greenberg said.
This NY1/Siena College 13th C.D. Democratic Primary survey was conducted June 14-18, 2014 by telephone calls to 707 likely primary voters. Interviews were conducted via both land and cell phones in both English and Spanish. A likely voter screen was applied to the sample of registered voters with a documented history of voting in recent elections. The data was statistically adjusted to reflect the age, gender and race/ethnicity of those that voted in the most recent primary election. It has a margin of error of + 3.7 percentage points. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social and cultural research primarily in New York State. SRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, please call Steven Greenberg at 518-469-9858. Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at: www.Siena.edu/SRI/SNY.