NYers Say Trump Manhattan Trial is ‘Legitimate,’ 54-30%, Including More Than 3/4 of Dems and Plurality of Inds; 2/3 of Reps Call it ‘Witch Hunt’

• Hochul Worst Ever Favorability & Job Approval Ratings, as Both Drop a Little
• Strong Majorities Support Safeguarding IVF Access, Enhancing LGBTQ Protections, Requiring HS Athletes to Compete with Same Sex as Assigned at Birth; Majority Opposes National 15-Week Abortion Ban; Divided on Banning TikTok, Providing Reparations to Descendants of Slaves, Allowing Parents to Override Educators on Books in Schools
• Shoplifting a Major Problem: 76%; 63% Oppose Congestion Pricing – Both Bipartisan

Press Release     Crosstabs

Loudonville, NY. Sixty percent of New Yorkers say they are paying a great deal or some attention to the criminal trial in which former President Donald Trump is accused of falsifying business records. By 54-30%, they say the trial is ‘legitimate’ – the view of 77% of Democrats and 44% of independents – rather than a ‘witch hunt,’ the view of 66% of Republicans, according to a Siena College poll of New York State registered voters released today.

Governor Kathy Hochul has her lowest ever favorability rating, 40-49%, down from 41-46% in February. Her job approval dropped from 48-47% in February to now 45-49%, her worst approval rating in a Siena College poll. Strong bipartisan majorities support safeguarding access to IVF (75-11%), enhancing protections for the LGBTQ community (69-24%), and requiring high school athletes to only compete with others of the same sex they were assigned at birth (66-27%). Voters oppose a national 15-week abortion ban, 52-41%, with a wide partisan divide.

“A majority of New Yorkers, 60% – including 68% of Democrats, 57% of Republicans and 50% of independents – are paying a great deal or some attention to Trump’s ongoing trial,” Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg said. “And a majority of New Yorkers, 54%, say the Manhattan proceedings are ‘a legitimate trial to determine’ whether Trump is or is not guilty of criminal behavior, rather than a ‘witch hunt’ to ‘interfere in this year’s presidential election,’ a view held by 30%. More than three-quarters of Democrats and a plurality of independents say the trial is legitimate, while two-thirds of Republicans call it a witch hunt.”

President Joe Biden has 45-52% favorability rating, down slightly from 46-50% in February, while his job approval rating also fell slightly and stands at 45-55%, from 45-52%. Trump has a 37-59% favorability rating, little changed from 37-58% in February.

“The good news for Biden is that he continues to hold a double-digit lead over Trump in solidly blue New York. The bad news for Biden is he only leads by 10 points, 47-37%, after leading 48-36% in February, in a state where enrolled Democrats outnumber Republicans better than two-to-one,” Greenberg said. “While Biden has support from 72% of Democrats, Trump has the support of 81% of Republicans and leads with independents, 46-32%.”

Hochul Sees Worst Favorability and Job Approval Ratings Since Becoming Governor

“Hochul’s favorability and job approval ratings improved from last fall to January of this year, but her ratings since then fell, both in February and this month,” Greenberg said. “It is the first time that her job approval rating has been underwater, now 45-49%, and her favorability rating is now nine points underwater, 40-49%. 

“While Democrats continue to view Hochul favorably and approve of the job she’s doing by about two-to-one, 79% of Republicans view her unfavorably and 81% disapprove of the job she’s doing. And by two-to-one margins, independents view her unfavorably and disapprove of the job she’s doing as governor,” Greenberg said.

Big Bipartisan Support for Several Issues; Mixed for TikTok, Reparations & Parental Book Involvement

“Some hot button social issues unite New Yorkers, even across partisan lines. Safeguarding IVF access has the support of at least 70% of Democrats, Republicans and independents. A majority of Democrats and more than three-quarters of Republicans and independents support requiring high school athletes to compete in sports with those of the same sex athletes were assigned at birth. And more than two-thirds of Democrats and independents, and a plurality of Republicans support enhancing protections for the LGBTQ community,” Greenberg said.

“Abortion divides the parties, as 61% of Republicans support a 15-week national abortion ban, and 64% of Democrats and a plurality of 47% of independents oppose it,” said Greenberg. “Allowing parent groups to override educators on books in schools has support from Republicans and independents, while opposed by Democrats. Providing some reparations to descendants of slaves is supported by Democrats and opposed by Republicans and independents. Banning TikTok closely divides New Yorkers, but more by age than by party.” 

Bipartisan Opposition to Congestion Pricing; Bipartisan Agreement Shoplifting is a Major Problem

New Yorkers oppose the MTA’s congestion pricing toll plan 63-25%, including majorities of Democrats, Republicans and independents. If implemented, 14% say it will have no effect; they will continue to go to drive in and pay the toll, 14% will travel into Manhattan less, 17% will find other ways to travel to Manhattan, and 44% say they don’t go to Manhattan. By 76-16%, voters say shoplifting is a major problem for New York stores. 

“A majority of Democrats, two-thirds of independents and three-quarters of Republicans oppose the soon-expected congestion pricing toll plan, as do approximately two-thirds of downstaters and a majority of upstaters,” Greenberg said. “Nearly one-third of New Yorkers say they will either travel less to Manhattan or find ways other than driving to get there. It will be interesting to see if those positions hold steady once the toll is implemented.

“More than two-thirds of Democrats, 80% of independents and 87% of Republicans say shoplifting is a major problem for New York Stores,” Greenberg said. “At least three-quarters of voters from every region say shoplifting is a major problem.”

Odds & Ends

• Voters are closely divided on the illegal sale of cannabis in New York, with 48% saying it’s serious and 46% saying it’s not. However, by a 56-29% margin, voters say government should do more to crack down on illegal pot shops, rather than look the other way.
• Currently, New Yorkers support increased aid to Ukraine, 54-35%, up from 51-36% in February, and the largest support it has had. Increased aid for Israel remains closely divided, 44-41%, from 44-43% in February. Democrats overwhelmingly support Ukraine aid but are divided on Israel. A plurality of Republicans opposes Ukraine aid, while a majority supports Israeli aid. Independents are closely divided on both.
• The vast majority of New Yorkers, 82%, continue to say the influx of migrants is a serious problem. And majorities continue to disapprove of the job that Mayor Adams, Governor Hochul and the Biden Administration are doing to address the migrant issue.
• A majority still say over the last year, crime in the state has gotten worse, and a plurality say crime in their community has stayed about the same. Only 12% say it’s gotten better in the state, and only 12% say it’s gotten better in their community. About 60% of voters still say they’re concerned about being a crime victim.

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This Siena College Poll was conducted April 15-17, among 806 NYS Registered Voters.  Of the 806 respondents, 517 were contacted through a dual frame (landline and cell phone) mode with 50 cell phone interviews initiated via text and completed through a furnished URL and 289 respondents were drawn from a proprietary online panel (Lucid). Telephone calls were conducted in English and respondent sampling was initiated by asking for the youngest person in the household. Telephone sampling was conducted via a stratified dual frame probability sample of landline and cell phone telephone numbers weighted to reflect known population patterns. The landline telephone sample was obtained from ASDE and the cell phone sample was obtained from Dynata. Data from collection modes was statistically adjusted by age, party by region, race/ethnicity, education, and gender to ensure representativeness. It has an overall margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points including the design effects resulting from weighting. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social, and cultural research primarily in NYS. SCRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, call Steve Greenberg at (518) 469-9858. For survey crosstabs: www.Siena.edu/SCRI/SNY.