- In a 3-Way That Includes RFK, Trump tops Biden by 7 in GA & NV, by 3 in MI; AZ & PA Tied; Biden Up 2 in WI
- VP Harris Down 3 Points to Trump Across Battleground States; Haley Bests Biden by 3-13 Points Across all Six States; DeSantis Tops Biden in AZ, WI, Tied or Very Close in GA, MI, NV & PA
- By 57-29% Voters Say Economic Issues More Important than Social Issues; Trust Trump More than Biden on Economy, Biden More than Trump on Abortion, and Nearly Equal on Democracy
Press Release Registered Voters Crosstabs Likely Voters Crosstabs Arizona Crosstabs Georgia Crosstabs Michigan Crosstabs Nevada Crosstabs Pennsylvania Crosstabs Wisconsin Crosstabs
“If 2024 turns into a Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump rematch with Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. as an independent, battleground state voters currently say it would be a very close contest, with Trump at 35%, Biden 33% and Kennedy 24%,” Dr. Don Levy, Director, Siena College Research Institute, said. “Trump only retains significant leads in Nevada and Georgia. Arizona and Pennsylvania move from the Trump column to dead even. And Wisconsin and Michigan remain very tight.
“It is noteworthy that among voters under 45 in those six states, RFK polls at 32%, Biden at 30% and Trump is at 29%,” Levy said. “Overall, while 18% of Democrats and 16% of Republicans say they would back RFK, 39% of independents would back Kennedy, compared to 28% for Biden and 25% for Trump.
“If Vice President Kamala Harris were to square off against Trump, swing state voters would be closely divided, with Trump edging out Harris, 47-44%, three points, compared to Trump’s four-point lead over Biden. Harris does better than Biden in Georgia, Nevada and Michigan, with little or no change in Arizona and Pennsylvania, while Wisconsin goes from a two-point Biden lead to a one-point Trump lead over Harris,” Levy said.
“Were Ron DeSantis to be the Republican nominee against Biden, the race is virtually even with DeSantis at 44% and Biden at 43% with battleground state voters,” Levy said. “On the other hand, if Republican Nikki Haley ran against Biden, she would, as of today, lead Biden by eight points, 46-38%, with leads of between 3 and 13 points in each of the six states.
“By two-to-one, 57-29%, voters across the states say economic issues (jobs, taxes, cost of living) are more important than societal issues (abortion, guns, democracy) when they determine who to support next year. While a plurality of Democrats says societal issues are more important, more than 60% of both Republicans and independents are making voting decisions based on economic issues,” Levy said.
“Voters give Trump a huge advantage on the economy, with 59% of voters saying he would do a better job than Biden. They say 49-40% that Biden would do a better job on abortion. On democracy, voters are divided, giving Biden a narrow 48-45% edge,” Levy said. “Trump also has double digit leads over Biden for handling immigration, national security and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.”
