- Strong Support for Eliminating Taxes on Tips & Support for Requiring Work for Healthy Adult Medicaid Recipients; Strong Opposition to Cutting Corporate Taxes & SNAP; Voters: ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ Will Worsen Life for Majority of Americans, 52-28%
- Voters Say ICE Agents Should Not Be Able to Detain Elected Officials, 51-33%; NYers Now Closely Divided on Whether State Should Help Feds’ Efforts to Deport Migrants
Loudonville, NY. By a 54-33% margin, New York voters say that when they consider everything President Donald Trump is doing domestically and in foreign affairs, Trump will not make America Great. By a similar 52-28% margin, voters think the President’s ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ (BBB) will worsen, not improve, life for a majority of Americans, according to a new Siena College Poll of New York State registered voters released today.
Looking at a few specific proposals in the BBB, voters support eliminating income taxes on tips, 61-21%, and requiring healthy adult Medicaid recipients to work to receive benefits, 48-32%. They are closely divided on whether state and local tax (SALT) deductions should be kept at current maximum, $10,000, or increased to $40,000, as was included in House bill, and they strongly oppose cutting taxes for corporations, and reducing SNAP benefits for poor Americans.
“It’s not surprising in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans two-to-one – the President’s home for most of his life – that New Yorkers do not think that everything that Trump is doing – domestically and abroad – will make America great,” Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg said. “It’s also not surprising that nearly three-quarters of Republicans think he will make America great, while more than two-thirds of Democrats do not. Interestingly, independents, by a two-to-one margin, do not think Trump will make America great.
“About two-thirds of Black and Latino voters don’t think Trump will make America great, and by a 48-40% plurality, white voters agree,” Greenberg said. “Only 26% of New York City voters, 36% of upstate voters and 39% of downstate suburban voters think Trump’s actions will make America great.
Trump has a 37-60% favorability rating, little changed from 38-59% in May. Likewise, his overall job approval rating, now 39-59%, was 40-57% in May. On several specific aspects of Trump’s job approval, voters range from having him nine points underwater on ‘immigration’ (45-54%) to 25 points underwater on ‘inflation’ (36-61%).
“When it comes to what the President calls the ‘Big Beautiful Bill,’ a majority of New Yorkers think it will worsen life for average Americans. Democrats overwhelmingly say it will worsen life, 69-17%, and independents agree, 49-25%. A majority of Republicans thinks the BBB will improve life for average Americans by a 55-16% margin,” Greenberg said. “A majority or plurality of voters regardless of region, gender, age, race, or income say the BBB will worsen life for average Americans.
“Majorities or pluralities of Democrats, Republicans and independents agree in their support of eliminating taxes on tips, and their opposition to reducing SNAP benefits for poor Americans,” Greenberg said. “While majorities of Democrats and independents oppose cutting taxes for corporations, a small plurality of Republicans supports it. And while a majority of Republicans and plurality of independents support requiring healthy adults on Medicaid to work, Democrats are evenly divided.”
Voters Oppose ICE Detaining Electeds; Closely Divided on NYS Helping Feds in Deportation Efforts
“By a 51-33% margin, voters say ICE agents should not be allowed to detain elected officials, as was done with a US Senator from California and the New York City Comptroller, among others,” Greenberg said. “While nearly three-quarters of Republicans say ICE should be allowed to detain electeds, more than two-thirds of Democrats and a plurality of independents say ‘no,’ they should not be allowed. Upstate voters are evenly divided but downstate voters strongly say ICE should not be allowed.”
When asked if New York State should support or oppose the federal government’s efforts to deport migrants living illegally in New York, 43% say New York should oppose the federal government’s efforts and 41% say the state should support the feds. In May it was 45-38% support; in December 2024 it was 54-35% support.
“Republicans continue to overwhelmingly want to see the state support federal efforts to deport migrants living illegally in New York, while Democrats continue to oppose by better than two-to-one. Independent voters had favored the state supporting the feds in May, 51-31%, however, they are now closely divided, 37-39%, leaning ever so slightly to wanting the state to oppose federal efforts,” Greenberg said.
Voters Disapprove Job Trump Doing on Israel/Iran War; Plurality Oppose Bombing Iran Nuclear Facilities
By a 54-40% margin, voters disapprove of the job Trump is doing addressing the war between Israel and Iran. And by a narrower 46-38% margin, voters oppose Trump ordering the bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities.
“While more than three-quarters of Republicans approve of the job Trump is doing to address the war between Israel and Iran, more than two-thirds of Democrats and a majority of independents disapprove,” Greenberg said. “White voters are evenly divided, while Black and Latino voters strongly disapprove. Jewish voters approve of the job Trump is doing on this war by a 64-28% margin.
“Republicans strongly support Trump’s decision to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities, 72-15%, Democrats oppose it nearly as strongly, 63-23%, and independents oppose the decision by a narrow 42-38% margin,” Greenberg said. “While men support it by five points, women oppose it by 20 points. Jewish voters are overwhelmingly in support of bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities, 63-22%.”
Odds & Ends
- By 58-35%, voters say the United States is headed in the wrong direction, rather than on the right track, little changed from 58-37% in May. More than two-thirds of Democrats say the county is headed in the wrong direction, and more than two-thirds of Republicans think the country is on the right track. Independent voters, who were equally divided on this question in May, now overwhelmingly say, 62-29%, the country is headed in the wrong direction.
- Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has a negative 41-47% favorability rating, little changed from 42-48% in May. He is viewed unfavorably by 72% of Republicans, 49% of independents, and even 35% of Democrats.
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This Siena College Poll was conducted June 23-26, 2025, among 800 NYS Registered Voters. Of the 800 respondents, 499 were contacted through a dual frame (landline and cell phone) mode (151 completed via text to web) and 301 respondents were drawn from a proprietary online panel (Cint). Telephone calls were conducted in English and respondent sampling was initiated by asking for the youngest person in the household. Telephone sampling was conducted via a stratified dual frame probability sample of landline and cell phone telephone numbers weighted to reflect known population patterns. The landline telephone sample was obtained from ASDE and the cell phone sample was obtained from MSG. Interviews conducted online are excluded from the sample and final analysis if they fail any data quality attention check question. Duplicate responses are identified by their response ID and removed from the sample. Three questions were asked of online respondents including a honey-pot question to catch bots and two questions ask the respondent to follow explicit directions. The proprietary panel also incorporates measures that “safeguard against automated bot attacks, deduplication issues, fraudulent VPN usage, and suspicious IP addresses”. Coding of open-ended responses was done by a single human coder. Data from collection modes was weighted to balance sample demographics to match estimates for New York State’s population using data from the Census Bureau’s 2023 U.S. American Community Survey (ACS), on age, region, race/ethnicity, education, and gender to ensure representativeness. The sample was also weighted to match current patterns of party registration using data from the New York State Board of Elections. It has an overall margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points including the design effects resulting from weighting. Sampling error is only one of many potential sources of error and there may be other unmeasured error in this or any other public opinion poll. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social, and cultural research primarily in NYS. SCRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, call Steven Greenberg at (518) 469-9858. For survey crosstabs: www.Siena.edu/SCRI/SNY.
