Spectrum News / Siena College NY 11 Congressional District Poll:
- Rose Up Big in Brooklyn & SI North (Half the District); Malliotakis Up Even Bigger in Remainder of Staten Island (Half the District)
- Zeldin, 46% – Hochul, 42%; Congressional Control: Rep 52% – Dem 41%
Loudonville, NY. In a rematch of 2020, Republican Rep. Nicole Malliotakis leads former Democratic Rep. Max Rose by six points, 49-43%, similar to her six-point victory over Rose in 2020 in New York’s 11th C.D. Malliotakis is viewed favorably by 44% of voters and unfavorably by 41%, with 15% who don’t know enough about her to have an opinion. Rose has a negative 38-47% favorability rating, according to a new Spectrum News/Siena College poll of likely NY 11 voters released today.
Republican gubernatorial challenger Rep. Lee Zeldin has a small four-point lead over Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul, 46-42%. By a much wider margin, voters say they want to see the Republicans control the US House after the election, 52-41%.
“Four years ago, Rose won the seat by six points. Two years ago, Malliotakis beat Rose by six points. Today, she leads him by six points, including by an overwhelming 88-4% with Republicans and a sizable 62-25% with independents. She’s even gaining some support from Democrats, although Rose leads with voters of his party 74-20%,” Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg said.
“While Rose has a commanding 61-35% lead in the northern portion of Staten Island (S.D. 23) and a narrower 49-37% lead in Brooklyn –accounting for about half the district – Malliotakis has an even larger 62-30% lead in the remainder of Staten Island (S.D. 24),” Greenberg said. “Malliotakis is viewed favorably by three-quarters of Republicans, a plurality of independents, and even a quarter of Democrats. Rose is viewed overwhelmingly unfavorably by Republicans and independents, and he is only viewed favorably by Democrats 61-25%.”
“There is a little gender gap as Malliotakis leads with men by 12 points and is just one point behind Rose with women,” Greenberg said. “White voters are with Malliotakis, 57-36%, while non-white voters side with Rose by a similar 55-35%. Voters under 50 are with Rose by 12 points; older voters with Malliotakis by 15 points.
“The race for governor is a little closer, although the dynamics are similar. Zeldin has support from 86% of Republicans, compared to Hochul’s 71% support with Democrats, and Zeldin has a two-to-one lead with independents,” Greenberg said. “He also has a better favorability rating, 34-31%, than she has, 33-50%.”
Asked to name their most and next most important issues in determining who to support in November, 65% of voters identify economic issues as one of their top two issues; 41% name it number one. That was followed by crime (42% top two / 21% most important), threats to our democracy (24%/16%), healthcare (17%/6%), abortion (16%/8%), national gun policies (12%/2%), education (11%/1%), and racial justice (6%/1%). Climate change and immigration combined were named by less than 1%.
“Four out of every five Republican and independent voters say that economic issues are one of their top two issues in choosing candidates this year, including more than half of each who say it’s their number one voting issue. Crime is the clear number two issue for both,” Greenberg said. “Democrats also make economic issues their top issue, however, they have four issues – threats to democracy, crime, abortion, and healthcare – all bunched up with between 24-30% of Democrats identifying each as a top two issue.”
By a 67-22% margin, voters say the country is headed in the wrong direction. President Biden has a 39-58% favorability rating, while former President Trump’s is 45-49%.
“Malliotakis/Rose II may not pack the punch of Ali/Frazier II but it does present what looks to be another single-digit race between these two in a district that wants Republicans in control of the House by 11 points, dislikes Biden more than Trump, and voted for Trump two years ago – also by six points,” Greenberg said.
“Advantage, Malliotakis. Rose has an uphill climb, trying to win back those Democrats currently siding with Malliotakis, and reducing his deficit with independents, who currently view him unfavorably and are voting overwhelming for Malliotakis. While midterm elections tend to be worse for Democrats – in terms of turnout and results – than presidential years, Rose won in a midterm and lost in a presidential,” Greenberg said. “Six points can be closed in five weeks, but it can also grow in that same time.”
This Spectrum News/Siena College NY 11 survey was conducted September 27-30, 2022 among 451 likely NY 11 voters. This poll has a margin of error of +/- 5.2 percentage points. Telephone sampling was conducted via a weighted stratified dual frame sample of landline and cell phones drawn from the L-2 database of registered voters. Data was statistically adjusted by age, race/ethnicity, regional turnout in 2018, regional vote pattern in the 2020 election, a combined measure of stated and derived vote likelihood, and gender to ensure representativeness. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social and cultural research primarily in NYS. SCRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, please call Steven Greenberg at 518-469-9858. Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at https://scri.siena.edu/category/spectrum/