The New York Times / Siena College Battleground Poll: Arizona

arizona race
  • October 5: Biden 49% – Trump 41%
  • September 18: Biden 49% – Trump 40%
  • October 5: Kelly 50% – McSally 39%
  • September 18: Kelly 50% – McSally 42%
  • Biden Viewed Favorably 52-45%; Trump Viewed Unfavorably 52-45%

Press Release     Crosstabs

Loudonville, NY. In the key battle for Arizona, a state carried by President Donald Trump in 2016, former Vice President Joe Biden leads Trump 49-41 percent, unchanged from 49-40 percent two weeks ago, according to The New York Times/Siena College polls of likely Arizona voters released today. In the race for the U.S. Senate seat, Democratic challenger Mark Kelly has extended his lead over incumbent Republican Martha McSally, now leading 50-39 percent, up from 50-42 percent.

Biden is viewed favorably 52-45 percent, little changed from 54-45 percent two weeks ago, and Trump has a negative favorability rating 45-52 percent, slightly better than the previous 43-55 percent.

“Over the last two weeks, we’ve seen the first presidential debate, the nomination of a Supreme Court justice and the President infected with COVID-19. Despite all that, the presidential race for Arizona’s
11 Electoral College votes is unchanged. Biden led by nine points and now he leads by eight,” said Dr. Don Levy, Director of the Siena Research Institute. “Voters continue to overwhelmingly back the candidate of their party, and independents continue to strongly favor Biden.

“Biden continues to have a slightly positive favorability rating and Trump continues to have a slightly negative favorability rating. “Biden is seen as better than Trump on addressing the pandemic, unifying the country and protecting people with pre-existing conditions. Voters are more closely divided on who is the better candidate on the economy, maintaining law and order, and choosing a Supreme Court justice,”
Levy said.

“In the Senate race, Kelly has extended his lead from eight points two weeks ago to now 11 points,” Levy said. “Kelly is picking off nine percent of Republicans, while McSally has the support of two percent of Democrats. Kelly has a solid 55-31 percent lead among independent voters.”

This New York Times/Siena College survey of Arizona was conducted October 1-3, 2020 by telephone calls in English and Spanish to 655 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points. Calls were made to a stratified weighted sample of voters from the L-2 Voter list via both land and cell phones. The data was weighted by party, age, race/ethnicity, education, region, gender and voter likelihood, a computed score that combines voter history, stated voter likelihood and modeled turnout by respondent. Polling support for this project provided by Reconnaissance Market Research. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social, and cultural research. SCRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, please call Don Levy at 518-944-0482. Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at: For additional methodological information, click here.