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The New York Times Upshot / Siena College Iowa 03 Poll:
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Democrat Axne 44% Republican Incumbent Young 43%
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Voters in Favor of Democrats Controlling House 48-42%; Give President Trump Negative 41-53% Job Approval Rating
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Favorability Ratings: Young, 38-40 Percent; Axne, 35-30 Percent
Loudonville, NY. Democrat businesswoman, Cindy Axne is locked in a too early to call race with Republican incumbent David Young, 44-43 percent, according to a new New York Times Upshot/Siena College poll of likely Iowa 3rd Congressional District voters. Young has a negative 38-40 percent favorability rating, compared to a 35-30 percent favorability rating for Axne.
Likely voters in this southwestern Iowa district prefer Democrats rather than Republicans control the House of Representatives next year by 48-42 percent. Voters give President Trump a negative job approval rating with 41 percent approving the job he is doing and 53 percent disapproving and by 53-39 percent they prefer their next representative serve as a check on President Trump rather than support him and his agenda.
This New York Times Upshot/Siena College Poll is part of an ongoing project polling pivotal Congressional races across the country. The data is published live on https://www.nytimes.com/section/upshot. This press release highlights the key findings and provides access in the cross-tabulations to the entire survey as well as how demographic groups answered each question.
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This New York Times Upshot/Siena College IA 03 survey was conducted September 27-30, 2018 by telephone calls in English to 502 IA 03 voters. This poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points. Calls were made to a stratified weighted sample of voters from the L-2 Voter list via both land and cell phones. A likely-to-vote probability was computed for each respondent based on their stated likelihood to vote as well as by virtue of the imputation of a turnout probability score based on past voting behavior. This combined probability to vote score was applied as a weight along with a weight that considered party, age, race/ethnicity, education, region within the district and gender. Polling support for this project provided by Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College, Reconnaissance Market Research, M. Davis & Company, and The Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social and cultural research primarily in NYS. SCRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, please call Steven Greenberg at 518-469-9858 or Don Levy at 518-783-2901. Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at: www.Siena.edu/SCRI/SNY.
