The New York Times Upshot / Siena College California 25 Poll:
Republican Incumbent Knight 47% Democrat Hill 45%
Voters Prefer Democrats Control House 49-46%; Give President Trump Negative 43-52% Job Approval Rating
Favorability Ratings: Hill, 36-25 Percent; Knight, 41-40 Percent
Loudonville, NY. Incumbent Republican Congressman Steve Knight holds a thin two-point lead over his Democratic challenger, non-profit executive Katie Hill, 47-45 percent, according to a new New York Times Upshot/Siena College poll of likely California 25th Congressional District voters. Hill has a 36-25 percent favorability rating, compared to a 41-40 percent favorability rating for Knight.
Likely voters in this district north of Los Angeles lean towards preferring Democrats rather than Republicans controlling the House of Representatives next year, 49-46 percent. Voters give President Trump a nine-point negative job approval rating with 43 percent approving the job he is doing and 52 percent disapproving and by 54-41 percent they oppose an immigration reform bill that would reduce legal immigration and provide funds for a wall along the U.S.-Mexican border.
This New York Times Upshot/Siena College Poll is part of an ongoing project polling pivotal Congressional races across the country. The data is published live on https://www.nytimes.com/section/upshot. This press release highlights the key findings and provides access in the cross-tabulations to the entire survey as well as how demographic groups answered each question.
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This New York Times Upshot/Siena College CA 25 survey was conducted September 17-19, 2018 by telephone calls in English and Spanish to 500 CA 25 voters. This poll has a margin of error of +/- 5.0 percentage points. Calls were made to a stratified weighted sample of voters from the L-2 Voter list via both land and cell phones. A likely-to-vote probability was computed for each respondent based on their stated likelihood to vote as well as by virtue of the imputation of a turnout probability score based on past voting behavior. This combined probability to vote score was applied as a weight along with a weight that considered party, age, race/ethnicity, education, region within the district and gender. Polling support for this project provided by Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College, Reconnaissance Market Research, M. Davis & Company, The Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida and The Survey Research Center at the University of Waterloo. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social and cultural research primarily in NYS. SCRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, please call Steven Greenberg at 518-469-9858 or Don Levy at 518-783-2901. Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at: www.Siena.edu/SCRI/SNY.