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The New York Times Upshot / Siena College Maine 02 Poll:
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Republican Incumbent Poliquin 47% Democrat Golden 42%
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Voters Prefer Republicans Control House 48-41%; Give President Trump Breakeven 47-47% Job Approval Rating
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Favorability Ratings: Golden, 32-32 Percent; Poliquin, 40-47 Percent
Loudonville, NY. Incumbent Republican Congressman Bruce Poliquin holds a five-point lead over his Democratic challenger, State Representative Jared Golden, 47-42 percent, according to a new New York Times Upshot/Siena College poll of likely Maine 2nd Congressional District voters. Golden has a 32-32 percent favorability rating, compared to a 40-47 percent favorability rating for Poliquin.
Likely voters in this large district that includes all of northern Maine prefer Republicans rather than Democrats control the House of Representatives next year by 48-41 percent. Voters give President Trump a breakeven job approval rating with 47 percent approving the job he is doing and 47 percent disapproving and by 50-45 percent they oppose an immigration reform bill that would reduce legal immigration and provide funds for a wall along the U.S.-Mexican border.
This New York Times Upshot/Siena College Poll is part of an ongoing project polling pivotal Congressional races across the country. The data is published live on https://www.nytimes.com/section/upshot. This press release highlights the key findings and provides access in the cross-tabulations to the entire survey as well as how demographic groups answered each question.
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This New York Times Upshot/Siena College ME 02 survey was conducted September 12-14, 2018 by telephone calls in English to 506 ME 02 voters. This poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.8 percentage points. Calls were made to a stratified weighted sample of voters from the L-2 Voter list via both land and cell phones. A likely-to-vote probability was computed for each respondent based on their stated likelihood to vote as well as by virtue of the imputation of a turnout probability score based on past voting behavior. This combined probability to vote score was applied as a weight along with a weight that considered party, age, race/ethnicity, education, region within the district and gender. Polling support for this project provided by Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College, Reconnaissance Market Research, M. Davis & Company, and The Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social and cultural research primarily in NYS. SCRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, please call Steven Greenberg at 518-469-9858 or Don Levy at 518-783-2901. Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at: www.Siena.edu/SCRI/SNY.
