This Poll Must Be Cited As: The New York Times/Siena College Poll
De Blasio Continues to Lead Lhota Overwhelmingly
Lhota & de Blasio Voters Say Support is Based on Candidate Position on Issues
Voters Expect de Blasio Win; High Expectations for a de Blasio Administration
Loudonville, NY. One week until Election Day and Democrat Public Advocate Bill de Blasio continues to hold an overwhelming 45-point lead over Republican Joe Lhota, 68-23 percent, little changed from 68-19 percent three weeks ago, according to The New York Times/Siena College Poll of likely voters released today. De Blasio is viewed favorably by 62 percent of likely voters and unfavorably by 22 percent (from 58-19 percent October 4), with 13 percent having not heard enough about him to have an opinion. Lhota has a negative 25-46 percent favorability rating (compared to 22-36 percent October 4), with 27 percent not having an opinion.
Nearly two-thirds of voters – including big majorities of both de Blasio and Lhota supporters – say the mayoral candidate’s position on important issues was the most important factor in choosing which candidate to support. Almost nine in ten voters think de Blasio will win the race, including three-quarters of Lhota voters. Fifty-four percent say if elected, de Blasio will bring change for the better to the City and 58 percent say his policies will make public education better. A plurality of voters, 43 percent, says the 2013 mayoral campaign has made them more hopeful the City’s future is bright compared to 25 percent saying the campaign has made them less hopeful.
“Approaching the homestretch of the campaign to choose New York’s first new mayor in 12 years, Bill de Blasio is poised to win a lopsided victory over Joe Lhota,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg. “Over the last few weeks, Lhota has picked up a few undecided voters, however, he has failed in cutting into the more than two-thirds of likely voters who continue to support de Blasio.
“De Blasio is supported by three-quarters of Manhattan and Bronx voters, and two-thirds of Brooklyn and Queens voters. He leads Lhota 55-38 among white voters, and de Blasio is backed by 90 percent of black and 76 percent of Latino voters,” Greenberg said. “While Lhota has the support of three-quarters of Republicans, de Blasio does even better among Democrats, and has a two-to-one lead among independents, in a city with six times as many Democrats as Republicans.”
“Both candidates have become more known over the last few weeks, however, almost half of voters now have an unfavorable view of Lhota, while de Blasio maintains a nearly three-to-one positive favorability rating,” Greenberg said.
“Sixty-four percent of likely voters say the candidate’s position on issues was the most important factor in deciding who to support, including 65 percent of de Blasio supporters and 58 percent of Lhota voters,” Greenberg said. “For de Blasio voters, the three most important issues are jobs, education and housing. The top three issues for Lhota voters are crime, jobs and taxes.”
Only 1 in 20 Voters Thinks Lhota Will Win; A de Blasio Administration Will Face High Expectations
“By an 87-5 percent margin, voters think de Blasio will be elected New York’s next mayor,” Greenberg said. “Even 81 percent of Republicans and 76 percent of Lhota voters think de Blasio is going to win.
“And if he does win, as virtually all believe, de Blasio will be inaugurated as New York’s 109th mayor, taking over a city where voters are nearly evenly divided on whether the city is headed in the right direction or off on the wrong track,” Greenberg said. “He will also face an electorate with high expectations. A majority thinks de Blasio will bring about real change for the better and strong majorities think he will both improve public education and increase the supply of affordable housing. A plurality of voters says this campaign has made them more hopeful of New York having a bright future. And New Yorkers are setting the bar pretty high for the next mayor.”
Voters in New York City Are in a ‘Blue’ State of Mind
“The same percentage of voters – 55 percent – thinks Joe Lhota is a ‘typical’ Republican and Bill de Blasio is a ‘typical’ Democrat,” Greenberg said. “But that’s not necessarily bad for de Blasio since 68 percent of voters have a favorable view of the Democratic Party and 76 percent have an unfavorable view of the Republican Party, including 41 percent of Republicans.
“While 45 percent of voters say the recent Federal government shutdown will not affect their vote, 47 percent say it makes them more likely to vote for a Democrat,” Greenberg said. “New York City voters appear ready to elect their first Democratic Mayor since 1989 as they are in a very Democratic state of mind.”
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This New York Times/Siena College Poll was conducted October 21-26, 2013 by telephone calls in both English and Spanish to 1,215 New York City residents and interviews with 701 likely registered voters. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points for likely voters. Data was statistically adjusted to correct for unequal probability of selection by household size and the overlap of land and cell phones and by age, education, borough, race/ethnicity and gender to ensure representativeness. Sampling was conducted via random digit dialing to landline and cell phones weighted to reflect known population patterns. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social and cultural research primarily in New York State. SRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, call Steve Greenberg at (518) 469-9858. For survey cross-tabs and frequencies: www.Siena.edu/SRI/SNY.