Spectrum News / Siena College 19th Congressional District Poll:
Faso Leads Delgado by 5 Points, 45-40 Percent
Delgado Leads in Ulster/Dutchess; Faso Leads Even Bigger in Other Nine Counties; Men for Faso by 21 Points & Women for Delgado by Nine Points
Favorability Ratings: Faso, 37-38 Percent; Delgado, 34-22 Percent
Loudonville, NY. Freshman Republican Representative John Faso holds a five-point lead over his Democratic opponent Antonio Delgado, 45-40 percent, according to a new Spectrum News/Siena College poll of likely 19th C.D. voters released today. Faso has a negative 37-38 percent favorability rating, compared to a 34-22 percent favorability rating for Delgado.
“In a district, closely divided between Republicans and Democrats, freshman incumbent Faso has a real race on his hands as he holds a narrow five-point lead over first-time candidate Delgado. While Delgado has a 13-point lead in Dutchess and Ulster Counties, Faso has even bigger leads in both the Southern Tier and Capital Region portions of this sprawling district,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg.
“Delgado has the support of 81 percent of Democrats while Faso has 76 percent of Republicans, although 15 percent of Republicans remain undecided. Independents tilt toward Faso by six points. Women favor Delgado and men are strongly in Faso’s camp. Interestingly, voters 55 and older are evenly divided, while those under 55 are solidly behind Faso,” Greenberg said. “Faso has a break-even favorability rating and is unknown to one-quarter of voters. Delgado has 12-point net positive favorability rating but is unknown to 44 percent of voters.
“Just as voters prefer Faso by five points, by a five-point margin they also want to see Republicans control the House. And by a slim two-point margin, voters disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President,” Greenberg said. “Ten weeks is a long time in a close campaign in which millions of dollars will be spent by both candidates, both national parties and outside groups. As the campaign and negative ads intensify, each candidate will be working to solidify his base and woo independent voters, the likely deciders of this race.”
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This Spectrum News/Siena College 19th C.D. survey was conducted August 20-26, 2018 by telephone calls in English to 501 likely 19th C.D. voters. This poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.8 percentage points. Calls were made to a stratified weighted sample of voters from the L-2 Voter list via both land and cell phones. A likely-to-vote probability was computed for each respondent based on their stated likelihood to vote as well as by virtue of the imputation of a turnout probability score based on past voting behavior. This combined probability to vote score was applied as a weight along with a weight that considered party registration, age, region, and gender. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social and cultural research primarily in NYS. SCRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, please call Steven Greenberg at 518-469-9858. Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at: www.Siena.edu/SCRI/SNY.