Time Warner Cable News / Siena College 24th Congressional District Poll:
Katko Stretches Lead Over Deacon to 23 Points
Katko Has Two-to-One Lead with Independents;
Continues to Get Support from ¼ of Democrats
Clinton Over Trump by 10 Points; Schumer Over Long by 37 Points
Loudonville, NY. Republican Representative John Katko, seeking his first re-election in a district that has elected a Democratic challenger in the race for Member of Congress in 2008 and 2012, has stretched his lead over Democrat Colleen Deacon to 23 points, 54-31 percent, up from 19 points three weeks ago, according to today’s new Time Warner Cable News/Siena College poll of likely 24th C.D. voters. While Deacon leads among Democrats by 37 points, Katko has the support of 27 percent of Democrats, leads with Republicans by 72 points and leads with independents by 29 points. In the race for President, Hillary Clinton has a 44-34 percent lead over Donald Trump, little changed from 45-33 percent, while Chuck Schumer has a 63-26 percent lead over Wendy Long, little changed from 62-28 percent, in the race for United States Senate.
“Katko has a commanding 23-point lead heading into the homestretch of the campaign. Trying to avoid the fate of the last three incumbents in NY24, who went down to defeat, Katko continues to be viewed favorably by a majority of voters, and to demonstrate significant crossover appeal,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg.
“Three weeks ago, we said ‘In addition to Deacon’s challenge of winning back more Democrats, she trails two-to-one with independents.’ Unfortunately for Deacon, she has shown no movement in winning back the more than one-quarter of Democrats backing Katko, and Katko continues his better than two-to-one lead with independents,” Greenberg said.
“Deacon has overtaken Katko in Syracuse, where she now leads by eight points after previously trailing by 12 points. However, Katko has expanded his lead in the remainder of Onondaga County – which accounts for about half of the voters – from 16 points to 28 points, and in Cayuga/Oswego/Wayne Counties from 27 points to 31 points,” Greenberg said. “Deacon has also not won the support of women – who overwhelmingly support Clinton and Schumer – among whom she trails by 13 points, only slightly better than her previous 16-point deficit. Katko leads with men by 33 points.
“Katko’s favorability rating, 52-31 percent, is little changed over the last three weeks, while Deacon’s favorability rating fell to a negative 31-38 percent, down from a positive 32-27 percent, although she remains unknown to about one-third of voters,” Greenberg said. “After 70 percent of voters have seen or heard Deacon commercials and 80 percent have seen or heard ads from Katko, voters are virtually evenly divided on which candidate is running the more negative campaign.”
Clinton Leads Trump By 10 Points; Schumer Has 37-Point Lead Over Long
“Clinton’s double digit lead over Trump continues, as she garners support from 77 percent of Democrats, compared to Trump’s support from 59 percent of Republicans. Clinton’s lead with independents is seven points. Although Trump has a small four-point lead with men, Clinton leads 51-27 percent with women,” Greenberg said. “Schumer has a commanding 37-point lead, including a three-point lead with Republicans.
“Katko is viewed favorably by a wide majority of voters; Deacon is viewed unfavorably by more voters than view her favorably,” Greenberg said. “Deacon’s made no inroads with independents, women or wooing back Democrats supporting Katko. Despite double-digit leads for Democrats Clinton and Schumer, Republican Katko heads toward Election Day with an imposing lead. Even if Deacon wins over the 14 percent of voters who are still undecided, she will still need to peel away some Katko supporters in order to make this race competitive.”
This Time Warner Cable News/Siena College 24th C.D. survey was conducted October 18-19, 2016 by telephone calls in English to 673 likely 24th C.D. voters. This poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points. Calls were made to a stratified weighted sample of voters from the L-2 Voter list via both land and cell phones. A likely-to-vote probability was computed for each respondent based on their stated likelihood to vote and interest in the upcoming election as well as by virtue of the imputation of a turnout probability score based on past voting behavior applied to their specific voting history. This probability to vote was applied as a weight along with a weight that considered party registration, age, region, and gender. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social and cultural research primarily in NYS. SRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, please call Steven Greenberg at 518-469-9858. Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at: www.Siena.edu/SRI/SNY.