Three Weeks Out, Clinton Boosts Lead Over Trump to 24 Points, 54-30 Percent, Up from 21 Points Last Month
Voters Lean Pessimistic When Asked if New President & Congress Will Work Together to Move America Forward; Majority Believes a Year from
Now, Most Americans Will Feel We Made the Right Choice for President
Schumer Maintains Huge Lead Over Long; Lead Now 66-27 Percent
Loudonville, NY. Hillary Clinton boosted her lead over Donald Trump to 24 points, 54-30 percent (up a little from 51-30 percent last month), with five percent for Gary Johnson and four percent for Jill Stein, according to a new Siena College poll of likely New York State registered voters released today.
A small majority, 52 percent, say they are pessimistic that the new President and Congress will work together to move the United States forward, compared to 46 percent who say they’re optimistic. By a 52-34 percent margin, voters say that a year from now, most Americans will look back and say we made the right choice for President.
Senator Chuck Schumer holds a commanding 39-point lead over Wendy Long, down from 46 points last month.
“New York is poised to be a blue presidential state for the eighth consecutive election. Clinton gets stronger support from Democrats than Trump gets from Republicans and Clinton has now opened a
17-point lead with independents, up from just two points last month,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg. “Clinton has a lopsided 56-point lead in New York City. She leads by nine points in the downstate suburbs and six points upstate.”
“While Clinton leads among men by 16 points, she has a 31-point lead with women,” Greenberg said. “White voters side with Clinton by eight points, however she bests Trump by 74 points with black voters and by 49 points among Latinos. She leads among Jewish voters by 41 points and Protestants by 24 points. Catholic voters are evenly divided with 44 percent each supporting Trump and Clinton.”
Clinton has a 52-46 percent favorability rating, exactly the same as last month. Trump’s negative 26-69 percent favorability rating is down a little from a negative 29-68 percent last month. By a 58-39 percent margin (same as last month) voters say Clinton is not honest and trustworthy. By a larger 73-25 percent margin (67-29 percent last month) they say Trump is not honest and trustworthy. Voters say Clinton is more honest and trustworthy than Trump, 55-37 percent (up from 50-39 percent last month). By a 79-16 percent margin, voters say Clinton will win, up from 65-27 percent last month.
“While a small majority of Republicans and Trump voters, and a larger majority of independents and men are pessimistic about the next President and Congress working together to move America forward, a majority of Democrats, women and Clinton supporters are optimistic that our leaders will move the country forward,” Greenberg said. “By nearly three-to-one, Democrats think that a year from now most Americans will say that the country made the right choice for President, as do a plurality of independents. Republicans think the opposite.
“New Yorkers, by a 79-16 percent margin – including 92 percent of Democrats, 80 percent of independents, and even 55 percent of Republicans – think Clinton will win the election, up from 65-27 percent last month,” Greenberg said. “Last month, Trump voters thought he would win by a nearly three-to-one margin, whereas today only a small plurality of Trump voters think he will win.”
Schumer Continues Huge Lead Over Long, Who Remains Unknown to Three-Quarters of Voters
Schumer has a 63-28 percent favorability rating, little changed from 64-26 percent last month. Long has a 12-12 percent favorability rating, with more than three-quarters not knowing enough about her to have an opinion, little changed from 13-11 percent last month. Schumer leads Long 66-27 percent, down from 69-23 percent last month.
“Schumer leads by 81 points with Democrats and 32 points with independents. And while Long is winning among Republicans, Schumer has the support of 31 percent of GOP voters. Schumer has commanding leads in New York City – 69 points – and upstate – 30 points – and leads among downstate suburban voters by 13 points.”
This Siena College Poll was conducted October 13-17, 2016 by telephone calls conducted in English to 611 self-identified likely New York State voters. Respondent sampling was initiated by asking for the youngest male in the household. It has an overall margin of error of + 4.6 percentage points including the design effects resulting from weighting. Sampling was conducted via a stratified dual frame sample of landline and cell phone telephone numbers drawn from the L-2 Voter File augmented by an RDD sample of cell phones supplied by Survey Sampling International. The sample was drawn to reflect known population patterns. Data was statistically adjusted by age, party, region, race and gender to ensure representativeness. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social and cultural research primarily in NYS. SRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, call Steve Greenberg at (518) 469-9858. For survey cross-tabs: www.Siena.edu/SRI/SNY.