New York Times Upshot/ Siena College North Carolina Poll:
Trump 41, Clinton 41 in Three-Way Tar Heel State Race
Ross Tops Burr by 4 Points; Cooper Up by 8 Points over McCrory
Divided State Evenly Split on HB2; Majorities Oppose Obamacare, Wall with Mexico; Pluralities Support Govt. Stimulus & Deportation
Loudonville, NY. Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are tied in a three-way race for North Carolina’s key electoral votes, according to a New York Times Upshot/Siena College Research Institute poll of likely North Carolina voters released today. Both Clinton and Trump currently have the support of 41 percent of likely voters with former Governor Gary Johnson garnering 11 percent. Senator Richard Burr trails his Democratic challenger, Deborah Ross 46-42 percent, and in the race for Governor, Democrat Attorney General Roy Cooper leads Republican incumbent Pat McCrory 50-42 percent.
Likely voters are evenly split with 47 percent both supporting and opposing HB2, the legislation that individuals may only use the restrooms in government buildings that correspond to the sex on their birth certificate. Majorities disapprove of the Affordable Care Act known as Obamacare (54-41 percent) and oppose building a wall along the length of the Mexican border (54-40 percent), while pluralities favor, rather than oppose government stimulus programs (45-39 percent), and support deporting undocumented immigrants here illegally (49-41 percent). Forty-eight percent support and 45 percent oppose additional gun control legislation.
“Trump has as large a lead among Republicans (76 points) as Clinton does with Democrats and independents currently favor Trump over Clinton by 38-30 percent with 20 percent for Johnson. Women lean towards Clinton by nine points, and men support Trump, also by nine points,” said Siena College Poll Director Don Levy. “Trump leads in the Southwest (Charlotte), Piedmont/Triad and East/South portions of the state, while Clinton leads in the Western and vote rich North Central (Raleigh) area of the state.”
“There is not only a significant gender gap in this race, but also large racial divides,” Levy said. “Trump is up 53-28 percent among white voters, while Clinton has a commanding 86-3 percent lead with African-Americans and 51-25 percent among Hispanics/Latinos.”
“Both candidates suffer from a majority of North Carolina voters having an unfavorable opinion of them. Clinton is viewed favorably by 43 percent and unfavorably by 54 percent while Trump’s favorability rating is a negative 39-58 percent. Nearly equal percentages, 40 percent in Clinton’s case and 37 percent for Trump, view one of the candidate’s favorably and the other negatively while 16 percent view them both unfavorably and only two percent have a favorable opinion of both. An overwhelming majority of blacks and a majority of Latinos view Clinton favorably while half of white likely voters have a favorable opinion of Trump. Of those with an unfavorable opinion of both, 41 percent say they will vote for Johnson, 22 percent for Trump and 13 percent for Clinton,” Levy said.
“The HB2 issue appears to sit front and center in the Governor’s race. Of those that support the law, McCrory leads 68-25 percent, while those opposed to the law favor Cooper 78-16 percent,” Levy said.
“North Carolina is truly a battleground state. A majority disapproves of Obamacare but a similarly sized majority opposes building a wall along the border with Mexico. By eight points, voters favor deporting undocumented immigrants, but by six points, they support government stimulus programs. And when it comes to pitting support for the second amendment against additional federal gun control legislation, it is too close to call,” Levy noted.
“The presidential election in North Carolina is up for grabs. Democrats have single digit leads in the races for U.S. Senate and Governor, but you can’t get any tighter than tied between Trump and Clinton. Unless the debates or current events move some voters, the electoral votes from the Tar Heel state will be decided by turnout by geography, gender, and race where the large differences on vote choice reside,” Levy said.
This New York Times Upshot/Siena College survey was conducted September 16-19, 2016 by telephone calls to 782 likely voters. Calls were made to a stratified weighted sample of voters from the L-2 Voter list via both land and cell phones. A likely-to-vote probability was computed for each respondent based on both their stated likelihood to vote as well as by virtue of the imputation of a turnout probability score based on past voting behavior applied to their specific voting history. This probability to vote was applied as a weight along with a weight that considered party registration, age, region, gender and race. This poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social and cultural research primarily in NYS. SRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, please call Don Levy at 518-783-2901. Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at: www.Siena.edu/SRI/SNY. This collaboration between New York Times Upshot and the Siena College Research Institute is dedicated to transparency and welcomes any requests for data as well as discussion of methodology.