Special Newsday / News 12 Long Island / Siena College Long Island Presidential Poll:
Long Islanders Strongly Favor Clinton, Trump in Primaries
Head-to-Head; Trump 41% to Clinton 38%; Nearly 20% Say Neither
Well Regarded Michael Bloomberg Tops Both Frontrunners in 3-way Race
Loudonville, NY. Businessman Donald Trump, with the support of 49 percent of Long Island Republicans, is the runaway leader in a hypothetical Islandwide primary while former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leads Senator Bernie Sanders 51 to 33 percent among Democrats according to a new Newsday/News 12/Siena College (SRI) poll of Long Island voters. Looking ahead to a November matchup, Trump leads Clinton, 41 to 38 percent among all voters while 17 percent say that they would not vote for either. Adding undeclared candidate, former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg to the race finds Bloomberg leading with 35 percent to 29 percent for Trump and 26 percent for Clinton.
“Among Island Republicans, Trump is viewed far more favorably than Ted Cruz and somewhat more favorably than either Marco Rubio or John Kasich, and if the island were a state, he would be poised to win the primary by 37 points,” said Don Levy, SRI’s Director.
“Former New York Senator Clinton leads the former New Yorker Sanders by 18 points in an Island Democratic primary but trails Trump by 3 points among all voters as independents lean to ‘the Donald’. Trump is up among men by eleven points while Clinton’s lead among women is only six points,” said Levy.
“No one knows if Michael Bloomberg will join the race but on Long Island his over two-to-one favorability numbers dwarf both Clinton’s – she is twenty points under water and Trump’s – he is net thirteen points negative – overall ratings. When added to a horserace, Bloomberg pulls from not only Trump and Clinton but also from those that say they wouldn’t vote for either. The former mayor gains a plurality in both Nassau and Suffolk by winning among independents, moderates and women,” said Levy.
This Newsday/News 12 Long Island/Siena College study was conducted February 14-18, 21-22 by telephone calls in English to 984 Long Island registered voters. It has a margins of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points for voters, +/- 5.7 for Democrats, and +/- 5.3 for Republicans including the design effects resulting from weighting. Sampling was conducted via a stratified dual frame probability sample provided by Survey Sampling International of landline and cell phone telephone numbers from within Long Island weighted to reflect known population patterns. Data was statistically adjusted by age, party, region and gender to ensure representativeness. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social and cultural research primarily in NYS. SRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, please call Don Levy at 518-783-2901. Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at: www.Siena.edu/SRI/