All 3 Incumbent Democratic Statewide Officials Hold at Least 20-Point Leads Over Their Republican Opponents
Cuomo by 21 Points Over Astorino; Hawkins Getting 9 Percent
Schneiderman Leads Cahill by 20 Points
DiNapoli Has Largest Lead at 27 Points Over Antonacci
Loudonville, NY. The three Democratic incumbent statewide officials all have leads of at least 20 points over their Republican opponents heading into the closing days of the 2014 campaign, according to a new Siena College Poll of likely New York voters. Governor Andrew Cuomo leads Rob Astorino 54-33 percent, with Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins polling at nine percent (last month Cuomo led 56-27-7 percent). The only Democrat to expand his lead from last month’s Siena Poll is Attorney General Eric Schneiderman, who leads John Cahill 55-35 percent, up from 50-34 percent last month. And State Comptroller Tom DiNapoli has the largest lead, 58-31 percent, over his challenger, Bob Antonacci (from 56-27 percent last month).
Cuomo Leads by 21 Points; Down from 29 Points in September
“Cuomo is nine points shy of the 63 percent of the vote he got four years ago. Unfortunately for Astorino, however, he’s 21 points away from equaling the 54 percent current support Cuomo has among likely voters. In fact, Astorino’s 33 percent support matches what the Republican gubernatorial candidate got in 2010. The difference is Howie Hawkins’ nine percent support,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg. “If Hawkins does that well on Election Day – something third party candidates often don’t do – then it will almost certainly make this year’s race closer than four years ago and keep Cuomo well below his total vote from 2010.
“Cuomo has the support of two-thirds of Democrats, a slim six-point lead with independents and gets the support of one-third of Republicans, more than twice the support from Republicans that Astorino gets from Democrats,” Greenberg said. “While the race is virtually even among men, Cuomo leads among women 65-25 percent.”
Cuomo’s favorability rating is 54-43 percent, down a little from 55-40 percent last month, and he has a negative 43-57 percent job performance rating, from 42-56 percent last month. Astorino has a 32-41 favorability rating, from 29-30 percent last month. Hawkins’ favorability rating is 10-12 percent, unchanged from last month.
“More voters now view Cuomo unfavorably than at any time in the last nine years that Siena has asked about him. Astorino is now more known statewide than he’s ever been but unfortunately for him while a quarter of voters still don’t know enough about him to have an opinion, nearly as many voters view Astorino unfavorably as view Cuomo unfavorably,” Greenberg said.
“Astorino has narrowed the gap, however, with less than two weeks until Election Day, about three-quarters of Republicans and Astorino voters think that Cuomo will win. It appears that Cuomo simply needs to run out the clock,” Greenberg said. “Voters are evenly divided about which candidate is running a more negative campaign.”
Schneiderman Slightly Bumps Lead Over Cahill to Now 20 Points
Schneiderman has a 41-20-39 percent favorability rating (up from 27-23-50 percent last month). Cahill has a 17-12-71 percent favorability rating (from 19-15-66 percent in September).
“Cahill was able to cut a 27-point Schneiderman lead in August to a more manageable 16-point gap in September. Schneiderman has been able to stretch that out a little to now a 20-point lead,” Greenberg said. “While Cahill is doing well with Republicans, leading 69-23 percent, Schneiderman is doing even better with Democrats, 78-13 percent, and Schneiderman leads by six points with independent voters. Schneiderman has the support of two-thirds of New York City voters but he’s also getting 50 percent in the downstate suburbs, where he leads by eight points, and upstate, where he leads by 10 points.
“And the gender gap seen in the gubernatorial race is just as evident here. The race is dead even with men and Schneiderman leads by nearly 40 points with women,” Greenberg said. “What had appeared to be the potentially closest of the statewide races, now appears to be right in line with the other two races. Big lead for the Dems.”
DiNapoli’s Lead Over Antonacci Shows No Signs of Slumping
DiNapoli has a 35-19-46 percent favorability rating (up from 30-17-52 percent last month). Antonacci has a 13-14-73 percent favorability rating (from 11-14-75 percent in September).
“DiNapoli, who survived a tough campaign four years ago, maintains a huge lead. Despite the fact that Antonacci is running even among independent voters, DiNapoli is crushing Antonacci with 80 percent support among Democrats, and he’s getting support from more than one-third of Republican voters,” Greenberg said. “DiNapoli leads by 10 points with men and 43 points with women. And he even has a nearly two-to-one lead upstate.”
This Siena College Poll was conducted October 16-20, 2014 by telephone calls to 748 likely New York State registered voters. It has an overall margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points. Data was statistically adjusted by age, party, region, race/ethnicity, and gender to ensure representativeness. Sampling was conducted via random digit dialing to landline and cell phones weighted to reflect known population patterns and historic New York State gubernatorial turnout. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social and cultural research primarily in New York State. SRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, call Steve Greenberg at (518) 469-9858. For survey cross-tabs: www.Siena.edu/SRI/SNY.