Newsday / News 12 Long Island / Siena College 4th Congressional District Poll:
As Race Tightens, Rice Now Leads Blakeman by 10 Points
Blakeman Narrows 18-Point September Gap; Rice Still Tops Magic “50”
Loudonville, NY. In the race to replace retiring Nassau County Democratic Representative Carolyn McCarthy, Democrat Kathleen Rice leads Republican Bruce Blakeman by 10 points, 52-42 percent, down from leading 55-37 percent five weeks ago, according to a Newsday/News 12 Long Island/Siena College Research Institute poll of likely 4th C.D. voters released today.
“Over the last month, Rice has seen her lead cut by almost half, however, she continues to have a double digit lead heading into the final two weeks of the campaign,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg. “Rice has the support of 87 percent of Democrats, and she’s picking up the support of nearly one-quarter of Republicans. Blakeman, however, has made great strides with independent voters, who had previously favored Rice by a narrow four-point margin, and now give Blakeman a 14-point edge.
“Rice had been leading among men by nine points and among women by 27 points. While she maintains a 22-point lead with women, Blakeman has nosed in front and taken a slim four-point lead with men,” Greenberg said.
“Interestingly, while 90 percent of Blakeman voters and 89 percent of Rice voters say they are at least fairly certain to stick with their current choice of candidate, 67 percent of Blakeman voters say there is no chance they will change their mind, compared to 59 percent of Rice voters,” Greenberg said.
“Rice continues to be better known than Blakeman and have a stronger favorability rating. She is viewed favorably by 52 percent of likely voters, down from 59 percent five weeks ago, while Blakeman is viewed favorably by 31 percent, up from 24 percent,” Greenberg said. “Blakeman now has a nine-point net positive favorability rating, up from even, while Rice has a 17-point net positive favorability rating, down from 31 points.
“The campaign has clearly had an effect on Rice’s favorability rating, particularly among Republicans – with whom she had been 13-point net positive and is now 16-point net negative – and independents, among whom she went from 27-point net positive to seven-point net negative,” Greenberg said. “Although, by a 26-18 percent margin, voters say Blakeman – not Rice – is running the more negative campaign.”
Cuomo Continues to Lead Astorino – 18 Points, Down from 27 Points
“Governor Andrew Cuomo leads Rob Astorino 53-35 percent, down from 58-31 percent five weeks ago. Democrats side with Cuomo ten-to-one. Republicans side with Astorino only two-to-one, with Cuomo getting the support of 31 percent of Republicans. Independents are evenly divided between the two major party candidates,” Greenberg said. “While both are viewed unfavorably by 39 percent of voters, Cuomo is viewed favorably by 57 percent, nearly twice the 30 percent who view Astorino favorably.”
“Blakeman has clearly made this race more competitive in the last several weeks but with less than two weeks until voters go to the polls, he still has a considerable gap to close,” Greenberg said. “Rice is better known to voters and is still viewed more favorably. From her perspective, Election Day can’t come soon enough. Time will tell whether Blakeman can continue to gain momentum, or whether Rice can hold him off and hold this seat for the Democrats.”
This Newsday/News 12 Long Island/Siena College 4th C.D. survey was conducted October 16-20, 2014 by telephone calls to 628 likely voters drawn from a list of registered voters. Determined by a stringent screen, likely voters were statistically adjusted to reflect historic turnout by party registration, gender and age. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social and cultural research primarily in New York State. SRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, please call Steven Greenberg at 518-469-9858. Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at: www.Siena.edu/SRI/SNY.