Rangel Leads Espaillat

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This Poll Must Be Cited As: The New York Times/NY1/Siena College Poll
Rangel Leads Espaillat by 9 Points (41-32%) in 13th CD Primary
Other Candidates Syphon 11 Percent of the Vote
Espaillat Leads by 27 Points with Latinos; Rangel Leads by 63 Points with Blacks
By 57-35 Percent, Voters See Rangel’s Age as a Positive Rather than a Negative

Loudonville, NY. Twenty-two-term Representative Charlie Rangel has a nine-point lead over State Senator Adriano Espaillat heading into the final five weeks of this hotly-contested Democratic primary rematch. Rangel has the support of 41 percent of likely primary voters, compared to 32 percent for Espaillat, with Michael Walrond getting six percent support and Yolanda Garcia garnering five percent, according to a New York Times/NY1/Siena College poll of likely 13th C.D. Democratic primary voters released today.

Rangel has a 68-5 percent lead among black voters. Espaillat has a 52-25 percent lead among Latino voters. White voters are closely divided. Rangel has a 10-point lead in the larger Manhattan portion of the district, while the two leading candidates are running neck-and-neck in the Bronx.

“This race was close two years ago in a low turnout primary and with about a month to go, it looks like the rematch is going to be another closely fought race that comes down to which campaign does a better job of motivating its supporters to vote on the last Tuesday in June,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg.

“While Espaillat is running nearly even with Rangel in the Bronx, Rangel leads 43-33 percent in Manhattan,” Greenberg said. “Rangel has a commanding 63-point lead among black voters, who comprised more than one-quarter of the electorate in the 2012 primary, while Espaillat has a strong but smaller 27-point lead with Latino voters, who then accounted for about two-fifths of primary voters. Rangel’s lead among voters 50 years old and older is three times the size of Espaillat’s lead with voters under 50.”

“Rangel is more well-known than Espaillat and has a 52-29 percent favorability rating. While Espaillat has a 41-16 percent favorability rating, he remains unknown to more than 40 percent of likely voters. Rangel’s favorability rating is very strong with black voters and is slightly positive with Latinos, while Espaillat has a very strong favorability rating with Latino voters and is nearly break even with blacks. Both candidates are viewed favorably by white voters,” Greenberg said.

“By a 57-35 percent margin, voters say Rangel’s ‘age helps him have the experience and wisdom to do a good job in Congress’ rather than ‘his age might make it too difficult for him to do the work required of a member of Congress.’ A majority of black and Latino voters agree, as do a plurality of white voters. A majority of men and women, younger and older voters, and those from Manhattan and the Bronx also agree that Rangel’s age is more a positive than a negative,” Greenberg said.

“Rangel has the lead heading into the final weeks of the campaign but in a race that was decided by less than three percentage points two years ago it would not be surprising to see the race tighten up heading towards primary day,” Greenberg said. “Espaillat has picked up some endorsements from elected officials and unions that previously backed Rangel – and voters say endorsements are important – but the veteran Congressman has been able to show off some powerful endorsements as well. In business it often comes down to ‘location, location, location.’ But in this race it is likely to come down to ‘turnout, turnout, turnout.’ Grab the popcorn; this is going to be a fun race to watch.”

This New York Times/NY1/Siena College 13th C.D. Democratic Primary survey was conducted May 15-20, 2014 by telephone calls to 678 likely primary voters. Interviews were conducted via both land and cell phones in both English and Spanish. A likely voter screen was applied to the sample of registered voters with a documented history of voting in recent elections. The data was statistically adjusted to reflect the age, gender and race/ethnicity of those that voted in the most recent primary election. It has a margin of error of + 3.8 percentage points. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social and cultural research primarily in New York State. SRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, please call Steven Greenberg at 518-469-9858. Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at: www.Siena.edu/SRI/SNY.


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