Spectrum News / Siena College Texas Poll:
- Abbott Favorability, 47-46%; O’Rourke Favorability, 39-52%
- Voters Say Economy is Most Important Issue in Determining Who to Vote for in November; Immigration, Threats to Democracy and Abortion all Important to Voters
- Majority Oppose SCOTUS’ Dobbs Decision Overturning Roe v Wade & TX Abortion Law; Majority Support Operation Lone Star & Bussing Migrants
Loudonville, NY. Less than two months from Election Day, Republican Governor Greg Abbott has a seven-point, 50-43%, lead over Democratic challenger, former Congressman, Beto O’Rourke. In the race for Lieutenant Governor, incumbent Republican Dan Patrick is up by nine points, 49-40%, over Democratic challenger Mike Collier. In the race for state Attorney General, incumbent Republican Ken Paxton has a five-point advantage, 47-42%, over Democratic challenger Rochelle Garza according to a new Spectrum News/Siena College (SCRI) poll of likely Texas voters released today.
Abbott has a 47-46% favorability rating, while O’Rourke has a negative 39-52% favorability rating. Patrick has a negative 33-36% favorability rating, compared to Collier’s 13-12% favorability rating. Paxton has a negative 29-41% favorability rating while Garza, like Collier is unknown to about three-quarters of Texas likely voters, and has a 13-12% favorability rating.
“Governor Abbott, who won a landslide thirteen-point race against Democratic challenger Lupe Valdez four years ago, has a seven-point lead with over six weeks until Election Day. Abbott has the support of 95% of Republicans and O’Rourke has the support of 93% of Democrats, while independents tilt toward Abbott by one point,” said Don Levy, SCRI’s Director. “White voters favor Abbott by over two-to-one, 64-31%, while Black voters prefer O’Rourke 79-10% and a majority of Latinos, 58-36%, plan to vote for O’Rourke.”
Economic Issues Dominate Voters’ November Decision Making
Voters were asked their most and second most important issues in determining their vote in November. Here are the results based on top two issues (single most important is parentheses):
“Economic issues are by far the dominant election issues for all voters. Republicans overwhelmingly put economic issues in the top spot, and say immigration is the second most important issue affecting their vote. Among Democrats the economy is tied with ‘threats to democracy’ and abortion is a close third. Independents say the economy most followed by ‘threats to democracy’ and immigration,” Levy said.
Majority of Voters Oppose Dobbs Decision; Nearly Two-Thirds Oppose Current Texas Law
By a 55-36% margin, voters oppose the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision overturning Roe v Wade. Overwhelmingly, voters oppose a current Texas abortion law (64-31%) that makes performing an abortion a felony punishable by up to life in prison with the only exception being to save the life of the mother.
“Although 67% of Republicans support the Dobbs decision, 59% of independents and 93% of Democrats oppose overturning Roe, as do 67% of women, 44% of men, and 75% of voters under 35,” Levy said. “Similarly, 85% of Democrats and 71% of independents oppose the current Texas abortion law, while 56% of Republicans support the current law.”
Majority of Voters Support Operation Lone Star; 52% in Favor of Bussing Migrants
By 58-35% Texans support Operation Lone Star that deploys thousands of National Guard troops and Texas troopers to the Mexican border and includes the ‘catch and jail’ policy in which trespassing migrants are arrested. Support is greatest among Republicans at 93-5% and weakest among Democrats at 24-67%. A majority of independents, 53-39% support Operation Lone Star.
A majority, 52-40%, are in favor of bussing migrants from Texas to cities like New York and Chicago. Republicans are strongly in support, Democrats oppose bussing migrants while independents, 47-44%, lean towards being in favor of bussing migrants from Texas to cities like New York and Chicago.
Plurality of Texas Favors Republican Controlled Congress; Most Voters Will Trust ’22 Election Results, Not Reps
Looking to the outcome of the midterm elections nationally, 43% of voters want to see the Republicans control both houses of Congress, 33% want the Democrats to control both houses, and 19% want each party to control one of the congressional chambers. By a 56-34% margin, voters say they will be able to trust the accuracy of the 2022 election results.
“Eight in ten Democrats and nearly six in ten independents say they will be able to trust the accuracy of the 2022 election results, as do a majority of men and women, young and old, as well as voters from every region of the state,” Levy said. “The only outliers are Republicans, who by a 54-33% margin say they will not be able to trust the accuracy of the results this year.”
Odds & Ends
- A plurality of voters say Texas is headed in the wrong direction, rather than on the right track, 47-43%. Democrats and independents think the state is headed in the wrong direction but Republicans, 76-16%, think the state is on the right track rather than moving in the wrong direction.
- Seven in ten voters say the country is headed in the wrong direction, 71-20%. A plurality of Democrats thinks the country is on the right track, while Republicans and independents strongly say wrong direction.
- Voters are opposed to the recent Biden Administration plan to cancel some student debt, with 54% opposing it, compared to 41% who support it. Democrats overwhelmingly support it, while Republicans overwhelmingly oppose it, as do a majority of independents.
- After the Uvalde Shooting, 37% of voters say the incident has no impact on who they will vote for while 32% say they are more likely to vote for Democrats and 27% say they are more likely to vote for Republicans.
- Sixty-three percent of voters support having instruction on the history of ethnic and racial discrimination in public schools.
- Nearly two thirds of voters, 62%, think the 2015 Supreme Court’s ruling legalizing same-sex marriage should be upheld with 81% of Democrats and 70% of independents supporting the decision, while 45% of Republicans think the ruling should be overturned.
- Texans support mandating universal background checks, 85-11% (72% strongly support). They oppose banning assault-style weapons, 50-46% (38% strongly oppose). And they support arming teachers in schools, 53-43% (34% strongly support).
- While 59% of voters say that Joe Biden was the legitimate winner of the 2020 presidential election, 32% of all Texans and 65% of Republicans say that Donald Trump was the legitimate winner of the 2020 presidential election.
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This Spectrum News/Siena College survey was conducted September 14-18, 2022 by telephone calls in English and Spanish to 651 likely Texas voters. Telephone sampling was conducted via a weighted stratified dual frame sample of landline and cell phone drawn from the L-2 database of registered voters. Data was statistically adjusted by age, race/ethnicity, education, regional vote pattern in the 2020 election, a combined measure of stated and derived vote likelihood, and gender to ensure representativeness. It has an overall margin of error of + 4.4 percentage points including the design effects resulting from weighting. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social, and cultural research primarily in NYS. SCRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, call Don Levy at (518) 783-2901. For survey crosstabs: https://scri.siena.edu/category/spectrum/
