- Stefanik Becomes Instant Frontrunner Among Republicans for Governor in ‘26
- Overwhelming Support for ‘Click to Cancel,’ Free Meals for All Public School Students & Restricting Student Smartphone Use in K-12 Schools; Plurality Support For Inflation Rebate Checks & Giving Gov. More Power on Mid-Year Budget Cuts
- 52% Say Hochul Heralded Budget Measures Will Make NY a Lot (15%) or Somewhat (37%) More Affordable; 35% Think the Budget Makes Life Better for Everyday NYers and 36% Think the Budget Doesn’t Address Needs of Real NYers
Loudonville, NY. Governor Kathy Hochul’s favorability and job approval ratings were little moved in the last month, according to a new Siena College Poll of New York State registered voters released today. Hochul’s favorability rating is 44-46%, from 44-43% in April. Voters approve of the job Hochul is doing as Governor, 50-46%, from 48-45% last month. Now, 36% of voters are prepared to re-elect Hochul, compared to 55% who want ‘someone else,’ a net 10-point negative movement from 39-48% in April.
Looking ahead a year, 46% of Democrats say they would support Hochul in a gubernatorial primary, compared to 12% for Antonio Delgado and 10% for Rep. Ritchie Torres, little changed from last month. And 35% of Republicans say they would vote for Rep. Elise Stefanik in a gubernatorial primary, compared to 22% for Rep. Mike Lawler and 11% for Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman. Last month, prior to including Stefanik, Blakeman led Lawler 28-22%.
“After hitting year-long highs in both Hochul’s favorability and job approval ratings last month, those numbers largely held constant this month, although Republicans, already very negative toward Hochul, turned even more so on both measurements,” Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg said. “And even more Republicans – 82% up from 68% last month – and independents – 64% up from 55% – prefer ‘someone else’ to be the next governor, while a small majority of Democrats, 51%, say they are prepared to reelect her.
“Two potential Hochul rivals for the Democratic nomination for governor next year – Delgado and Torres – remain largely unknown to a majority of voters and a majority of Democrats,” Greenberg said. “Not surprisingly, they both continue to trail Hochul by a large margin – and by virtually every demographic – when Democrats are asked to choose next year’s gubernatorial nominee.”
“When asking Republicans who they want to see as their gubernatorial nominee next year, Stefanik is their early frontrunner, with a small double-digit lead over her downstate colleague, Lawler, and Blakeman, with barely double-digit support, trailing badly. When Stefanik was not included last month, Blakeman had a narrow 6-point lead over Lawler,” Greenberg said. “While Lawler and Blakeman both have virtually break-even favorability ratings, they are both unknown to a majority of voters and Republicans. Stefanik, more well known, has a negative overall favorability rating, 25-35%, but a two-to-one, 45-22%, favorability rating with Republicans.”
Three Budget Provisions Have Strong Bipartisan Support; Two Have Plurality Support; Two Break Even
“Three budget measures enjoy overwhelming bipartisan support. Making it easier for consumers to cancel subscriptions has support from more than three-quarters of Democrats, Republicans and independents. Providing free meals to all public school students is supported by nearly two-thirds of Republicans, nearly three-quarters of independents and more than nine in ten Democrats. And restricting K-12 students’ smartphone use during the school day has the support of 66% of Democrats, 67% of independents and 68% of Republicans,” Greenberg said.
“Pluralities of Democrats and Republicans support giving the governor mid-year budget-cutting powers, and a majority of Democrats support the governor’s inflation rebate checks,” Greenberg said. “Democrats support the $10 million fund for legal expenses of state employees facing retaliation from the federal government, however, independents are opposed and Republicans are very opposed. Voters are evenly divided on repaying the federal government $8 billion in unemployment insurance loans.”
Small Majority Says Hochul-pushed Budget Proposals will Make NY Somewhat or a Lot More Affordable
When asked whether issues the governor touted in the budget – inflation rebate checks, middle-class tax cut, free public school meals, and increasing the child tax credit – will make New York more affordable, 15% said a lot, 37% somewhat, 26% said not very much, and 17% not at all. A little more than one-third of voters say the budget makes life better for New Yorkers and a little more than one-third say it doesn’t address New Yorkers’ real needs.
“Nearly two-thirds of Democrats think the recently passed budget will make New York at least somewhat more affordable, and by a nearly two-to-one margin, Democrats think the budget will make life better for everyday New Yorkers,” Greenberg said. “On the other hand, a majority of Republicans and independents say the budget’s impact on affordability is not very much, if at all. By three-to-one, Republicans say the ‘bloated budget’ doesn’t address New Yorkers’ real needs, and a plurality of independents agree with them.
Trump Favorability and Job Approval Ratings Dip a Little
President Donald Trump’s favorability rating is 38-59%, down from 40-55% in April. His overall job approval rating, 40-57%, is down a little from 42-56% last month.
“Trump is viewed favorably by 79% of Republicans, while 82% of Democrats view him unfavorably, as do independents by a narrow 45-50% margin,” Greenberg said. “Similarly, 81% of Democrats disapprove of the job Trump is doing as president, while 82% of Republicans approve, and independents are closely divided.
“On six specific aspects of his job performance, at least 73% of Republicans approve of each and at least 72% of Democrats disapprove of the job he’s doing on each,” Greenberg said. “Independents are positive by seven points on immigration and negative by 11 points on trade, while they are closely divided on the other four.”
Large Plurality Says All School Districts Should Prohibit Trans Girls from Playing on Girls Sports Team
Asked their views on transgender girls and their participation in school sports, 46% say all school districts should ban transgender girls from playing on girls sports teams, while 22% say all districts should allow transgender girls to play on girls sports teams, and 23% say the decision should be left up to each individual school district.
“Democrats are closely divided on the question of transgender girls playing on girls school sports teams – 32% want it banned in all districts and 31% want it allowed in all districts – while 68% of Republicans and 54% of independents say transgender girls should be banned from playing on girls school sports teams,” Greenberg said. “While there is no gender gap on this issue, there is a difference based on age, as voters under 35 are closely divided, and 54% of voters 55 and older say it should be banned.”
Odds & Ends
- Voters are now closely divided on whether congestion pricing should remain because it’s working, as Governor Hochul says, or it should be eliminated because it’s an unfair tax, as President Trump says. Currently, 39% want it to remain and 41% want it eliminated. In March, it was 33-40%. But by a 46-36% margin, voters say Hochul is right to continue to fight the feds on congestion pricing. Democrats and voters from New York City are the driving force in support of both congestion pricing and wanting Hochul to continue to fight for it.
- While a plurality of voters continues to believe that New York should support the federal government’s efforts to deport illegal migrants living illegally in New York, 45-38%, down from 48-31% in February, and 54-35% last December.
- Senator Chuck Schumer’s favorability rating, 42-48%, improved slightly from his all time worst favorability rating last month, 39-49%. Among Democrats, his net favorability rating rose from +14 points to +23 points.
- Voters continue to be closely divided on the direction of the state with 43% saying New York is on the right track and 46% saying the state is headed in the wrong direction, compared to 41-45% last month. When it comes to the direction of the country, only 37% say it’s on the right track, while a majority, 58%, say it’s headed in the wrong direction, little changed from 37-56% last month.
- The State Assembly has a 41-35% favorability rating, little changed from 43-35% in April. The State Senate has a 42-37% favorability rating, little changed from 45-37% last month.
###
This Siena College Poll was conducted May 12-15, 2025, among 805 NYS Registered Voters. Of the 805 respondents, 308 were contacted through a dual frame (landline and cell phone) mode (196 completed via text to web) and 301 respondents were drawn from a proprietary online panel (Cint). Telephone calls were conducted in English and respondent sampling was initiated by asking for the youngest person in the household. Telephone sampling was conducted via a stratified dual frame probability sample of landline and cell phone telephone numbers weighted to reflect known population patterns. The landline telephone sample was obtained from ASDE and the cell phone sample was obtained from MSG. Interviews conducted online are excluded from the sample and final analysis if they fail any data quality attention check question. Duplicate responses are identified by their response ID and removed from the sample. Three questions were asked of online respondents including a honey-pot question to catch bots and two questions ask the respondent to follow explicit directions. The proprietary panel also incorporates measures that “safeguard against automated bot attacks, deduplication issues, fraudulent VPN usage, and suspicious IP addresses”. Coding of open-ended responses was done by a single human coder. Data from collection modes was weighted to balance sample demographics to match estimates for New York State’s population using data from the Census Bureau’s 2023 U.S. American Community Survey (ACS), on age, region, race/ethnicity, education, and gender to ensure representativeness. The sample was also weighted to match current patterns of party registration using data from the New York State Board of Elections. It has an overall margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points including the design effects resulting from weighting. Sampling error is only one of many potential sources of error and there may be other unmeasured error in this or any other public opinion poll. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social, and cultural research primarily in NYS. SCRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, call Steve Greenberg at (518) 469-9858. For survey crosstabs: www.Siena.edu/SCRI/SNY.
