Biden Leads Trump in Six Key Battleground States

voting booth
  • The New York Times / Siena College Poll:
  • Biden Leads Trump in Six Key Battleground States
  • Up by 6 Points in Florida, 7 Points in Arizona, 9 Points in North Carolina, 10 Points Pennsylvania and by 11 Points in Michigan, and Wisconsin
  • Huge Majorities in Each State Say Systemic Racism is a Serious Problem
  • At Least 50% in Each State Rate Trump Better than Biden on Economy; Voters in Every State Rate Biden Better than Trump on Health Care, Immigration, Race Relations, Handling Protests and Unifying the Country

Press Release and Battleground State Presidential Horserace Crosstabs

Senate and Gubernatorial (NC Only) Crosstabs

Loudonville, NY. Former Vice President Joe Biden now leads President Donald Trump by between six and eleven points in six key states, according to a new New York Times/Siena College Battleground Poll of registered voters. Biden is up 48-41 percent in Arizona, 47-41 percent in Florida, 47-36 percent in Michigan, 49-40 percent in North Carolina, 50-40 percent in Pennsylvania and 49-38 percent in Wisconsin. Biden has increased his advantage from the New York Times/Siena College Battleground polls in October 2019 in Arizona, Florida, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and turned small deficits to large leads in Michigan and North Carolina.

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In each of the six states at least 81 percent of voters say that systemic racism in the United States is a very or somewhat serious problem. In every state, except Wisconsin, at least 50 percent say that systemic racism in the U.S. is a very serious problem.

Regardless of how they intend to vote, a majority of voters in all six battleground states trust Trump rather than Biden to do a better job on the economy. In four states, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania voters trust Trump to do a better job than Biden working with China; voters in Wisconsin are evenly divided.

“The economy and China stand out in our poll as the President’s strong issues,” said Siena College Research Institute Director Don Levy. “Voters in each of these six key states trust Trump more than Biden on the economy and in dealing with China but when it comes to health care, immigration, race relations, handling the recent protests, unifying the country and to a slightly lesser degree, addressing the coronavirus, they trust the former Vice President to do a better job.”

Percent of Voters by State, Biden: Trump, Trusting Candidate to Do A Better Job on…

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“These six key states may decide the election in November. Right now, Biden is ahead in each. But which issue will be most important when voters make their decision? Right now, if it is the economy, voters lean towards re-electing the President. But if voters decide on virtually any other issue, Biden stands to benefit,” Levy said.

These New York Times /Siena College Battleground polls were conducted June 8-16, 2020 by telephone calls in English and Spanish to 3,870 registered voters across six states – Arizona, n= 650, MOE = +/- 4.3, Florida, n=651, MOE = +/-4.6, Michigan, n=610, MOE= +/- 4.3, North Carolina, n=653, MOE=+/- 4.1, Pennsylvania, n=651, MOE=+/-4.2 and Wisconsin, n=655, MOE=+/-4.3. Calls were made to a stratified weighted sample of voters from the L-2 Voter list via both land and cell phones. The data was weighted by party, age, race/ethnicity, education, region and gender. Polling support for this project provided by Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College, Reconnaissance Market Research, and The Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social and cultural research primarily in NYS. SCRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, please call Don Levy at 518-783-2901. Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at: