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Spectrum News / Siena College 25th Congressional District Poll:
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Morelle Maintains Strong Double-Digit Lead Over Maxwell
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Democrat Leads by 17 Points, Down from 24 Points in August;
Maxwell Gets 9% of Dems, While Morelle Gets 26% of Reps;
Independents Side with Morelle by 8 Points; Wide Gender Gap
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Favorability Ratings: Morelle, 55-23 Percent; Maxwell, 36-14 Percent
Loudonville, NY. The race to succeed former Representative Louise Slaughter has tightened a little since August, however, Democrat Joe Morelle, the Assembly Majority Leader, maintains a comfortable 53-36 percent lead over his Republican opponent, Dr. Jim Maxwell, according to a new Spectrum News/Siena College poll of likely 25th C.D. voters released today. Morelle has 55-23 percent favorability rating, from
53-18 percent in August, compared to a 36-14 percent favorability rating, up from 17-12 percent in August, for first-time candidate Maxwell, who is still largely unknown to half the electorate.
“Morelle, better known and viewed more favorably than Maxwell, continues to maintain a solid lead with little change in the overall dynamics of the race,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg. “Morelle still holds 81 percent of Democrats, keeping Maxwell in single digits with Democrats. Maxwell still has less than two-thirds of Republicans backing him, while Morelle has the support of one-quarter of Republicans. And Morelle still leads with independents, now by eight points, down from 12 points in August.
“Slaughter had some runaway races as well as a few very close races in this district that has almost 60,000 more enrolled Democrats than Republicans. Morelle increased his huge lead in Rochester. He saw his 27-point lead in the eastern portion of the district tighten to 12 points, and the western part of the district remains tight with Morelle having a narrow three-point lead,” Greenberg said. “Maxwell only trails by five points with men, however, women give Morelle a commanding 27-point lead.
“In this district that tilts decidedly ‘blue,’ likely voters want to see the Democrats control Congress 52-41 percent, down a little from 55-37 percent in August,” Greenberg said. “This district also disapproves of the job President Trump is doing, 55-40 percent, although that’s better than August, when voters disapproved of Trump’s job by a 57-34 percent margin.
“Dr. Maxwell has become a little better known over the last two months, although he still lags behind Morelle in favorability. However, Maxwell has not yet succeeded in solidifying his Republican base, only leading by 38 points, compared to Morelle’s 72-point lead with Democrats,” Greenberg said. “While there is still time, the clock is ticking faster and Morelle’s advantage may be too big for Maxwell to close in the time remaining.”
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This Spectrum News/Siena College 25th C.D. survey was conducted October 4-8, 2018 by telephone calls in English to 465 likely 25th C.D. voters. This poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.7 percentage points. Calls were made to a stratified weighted sample of voters from the L-2 Voter list via both land and cell phones. A likely-to-vote probability was computed for each respondent based on their stated likelihood to vote as well as by virtue of the imputation of a turnout probability score based on past voting behavior. This combined probability to vote score was applied as a weight along with a weight that considered party registration, age, region, and gender. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social and cultural research primarily in NYS. SCRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, please call Steven Greenberg at 518-469-9858. Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at: www.Siena.edu/SCRI/SNY.
