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The New York Times Upshot / Siena College Kentucky 06 Poll:
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Republican Incumbent Barr 47% Democrat McGrath 46%
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Voters Lean Towards Democrats Controlling House 46-44%; Give President Trump Negative 45-51% Job Approval Rating
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Favorability Ratings: McGrath, 51-38 Percent; Barr, 47-45 Percent
Loudonville, NY. Incumbent Republican Congressman Andy Barr holds a slim one-point lead over his Democratic challenger, former marine Amy McGrath, 47-46 percent, according to a new New York Times Upshot/Siena College poll of likely Kentucky 6th Congressional District voters. McGrath has a 51-38 percent favorability rating, compared to a 47-45 percent favorability rating for Barr.
Likely voters in this district that includes the Lexington area as well as more rural Bluegrass Country prefer Democrats rather than Republicans control the House of Representatives next year by a thin 46-44 percent. Voters give President Trump a negative job approval rating with 45 percent approving the job he is doing and 51 percent disapproving and by 47-34 percent they support electing more people that describe themselves as feminists to public office.
This New York Times Upshot/Siena College Poll is part of an ongoing project polling pivotal Congressional races across the country. The data is published live on https://www.nytimes.com/section/upshot. This press release highlights the key findings and provides access in the cross-tabulations to the entire survey as well as how demographic groups answered each question.
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This New York Times Upshot/Siena College KY 06 survey was conducted September 6-8, 2018 by telephone calls in English to 506 KY 06 voters. This poll has a margin of error of + 4.9 percentage points. Calls were made to a stratified weighted sample of voters from the L-2 Voter list via both land and cell phones. A likely-to-vote probability was computed for each respondent based on their stated likelihood to vote as well as by virtue of the imputation of a turnout probability score based on past voting behavior. This combined probability to vote score was applied as a weight along with a weight that considered party, age, race/ethnicity, education, region within the district and gender. Polling support for this project provided by Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College, Reconnaissance Market Research, M. Davis & Company, and The Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social and cultural research primarily in NYS. SCRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, please call Steven Greenberg at 518-469-9858 or Don Levy at 518-783-2901. Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at: www.Siena.edu/SCRI/SNY.
