Minnesota 08: Race Too Close to Call

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  • The New York Times Upshot / Siena College Minnesota 08 Poll:

  • Race Too Close to Call in Minnesota 08 Open Seat; Democrat Radinovich 44%; Republican Stauber 43%

  • Voters Evenly Divided on Control of House 47% Democratic, 46% Republican; Give President Trump 47-48% Job Approval Rating

  • Favorability Ratings: Radinovich, 30-18 Percent; Stauber, 28-27 Percent

Press Release     Crosstabs

Loudonville, NY. Democrat Joe Radinovich and Republican Pete Stauber are virtually tied early in the battle for this open seat. Radinovich tops Stauber 44-43 percent, according to a new New York Times Upshot/Siena College poll of likely Minnesota 8th Congressional District voters. Stauber has a 28-27 percent favorability rating, compared to a 30-18 percent favorability rating for Radinovich.

Likely voters in this northern Minnesota district that had historically voted Democratic but was carried by President Trump by 16 points are evenly divided on whether Democrats or Republicans should control the House of Representatives next year with 47 percent choosing the Democrats and 46 percent selecting the Republicans. Voters now give President Trump a breakeven job approval rating with 47 percent approving the job he is doing and 48 percent disapproving.

This New York Times Upshot/Siena College Poll is part of an ongoing project polling pivotal Congressional races across the country. The data is published live on https://www.nytimes.com/section/upshot. This press release highlights the key findings and provides access in the cross-tabulations to the entire survey as well as how demographic groups answered each question.
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This New York Times Upshot/Siena College MN 08 survey was conducted September 6-9, 2018 by telephone calls in English to 504 likely MN 08 voters. This poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points. Calls were made to a stratified weighted sample of voters from the L-2 Voter list via both land and cell phones. A likely-to-vote probability was computed for each respondent based on their stated likelihood to vote as well as by virtue of the imputation of a turnout probability score based on past voting behavior. This combined probability to vote score was applied as a weight along with a weight that considered party, age, race/ethnicity, education, region within the district and gender. Polling support for this project provided by Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College, Reconnaissance Market Research, M. Davis & Company, and The Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social and cultural research primarily in NYS. SCRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, please call Steven Greenberg at 518-469-9858 or Don Levy at 518-783-2901. Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at: www.Siena.edu/SCRI/SNY.

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