Time Warner Cable News / Siena College 19th Congressional District Primary Polls:
Teachout (Democrat) & Faso (Republican) Expand Their Large Leads Heading Into Primary Day
Faso & Teachout Voters Are More Committed to Their Candidates; Primary Voters Also Expect to See Teachout & Faso Win
Loudonville, NY. Heading into primary day, Republicans appear poised to give John Faso the nomination to try and succeed Rep. Chris Gibson (R), who is stepping down at the end of this term, while Democrats overwhelmingly support Zephyr Teachout to be their party’s nominee, according to new Time Warner Cable News/Siena College polls of likely 19th C.D. primary voters released today. Teachout has expanded her lead over Will Yandik to 39 points, 62-23 percent, up from 53-23 percent three weeks ago. Faso now leads Andrew Heaney by 30 points, 58-28 percent, up from 50-28 percent three weeks ago.
“Heading into primary day Faso and Teachout have extended their frontrunner positions and have large, commanding leads as Republican and Democratic primary voters prepare to cast their ballots to choose candidates to succeed Rep. Gibson,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg. “Teachout has expanded her 30-point lead to 39 points, while Faso now has a 30-point lead, up from 22 points three weeks ago.”
“Teachout leads by 50 points in Dutchess and Ulster Counties, where nearly half of expected Democratic primary voters are expected to come from, and by more than 20 points in the remainder of the district. She leads by 48 points among self-described liberals – two-thirds of expected voters – and 17 points among moderates,” Greenberg said. “Yandik has not made up ground with any demographic group in the last three weeks.
“Faso leads by more than 40 points in the counties closest to the capital region, which are expected to produce more Republican votes than any other region, and more than 30 points in the southern portion of the district. Heaney had been within four points of Faso in Dutchess and Ulster Counties, although now Faso leads there by 17 points,” Greenberg said. “Among moderate Republicans, Faso leads by 22 points, however, he leads by 35 points with conservatives, who account for nearly two-thirds of the electorate.”
“Teachout is viewed favorably by three-quarters of likely Democratic voters, while Yandik, who has a 45-12 percent favorability rating, remains unknown to more than 40 percent of likely voters,” Greenberg said. “Faso has improved his favorability rating to 55-25 percent, up from 47-30 percent three weeks ago, while Heaney has seen little change in his negative 29-47 percent favorability rating. Given the difference in the candidates’ favorability ratings, it’s not hard to see why the frontrunners are the frontrunners.
“While Faso and Teachout appear to be headed to a November showdown, low turnout elections – like late June congressional primaries – are generally won by the campaigns that do a better job of identifying their supporters and ensuring that their supporters actually cast votes,” Greenberg said. “That said, Heaney and Yandik have huge hurdles to overcome if they are to pull off come from behind upset victories.”
These Time Warner Cable News/Siena College 19th C.D. primary surveys were conducted June 19-22, 2016 by telephone calls to 494 likely Republican primary voters and 598 likely Democratic primary voters. The results have a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points for the Republican primary poll and +/-4.0 percentage points for the Democratic primary poll, including the design effects resulting from weighting. Sampling was conducted via a stratified dual frame sample of historically active registered voters reached via landline and cell phone telephone numbers drawn from a sample provided by L-2 Voter Mapping. A likely voter screen was applied to initial respondents from this dual frame sample that was statistically adjusted to reflect gender and age in each case. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social and cultural research primarily in NYS. SRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, please call Steven Greenberg at 518-469-9858. Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at: www.Siena.edu/SRI/SNY.