Time Warner Cable News / Siena College 18th Congressional District Poll:
In Rematch Battle, Maloney Leads Hayworth By 8 Points
Overwhelming Support for Term Limits, Minimum Wage Increase, Immigration Reform & ‘Buffett Rule’; Weaker Support for Greater US Involvement in Mideast & Repealing Obamacare
Hayworth Up with Independents; Maloney Strongest in Orange County
Loudonville, NY. As this rematch of current representative versus former representative begins to heat up, the incumbent, Democratic Representative Sean Patrick Maloney, has an eight-point lead, 50-42 percent, over Republican former Representative Nan Hayworth, according to a Time Warner Cable News/Siena College Research Institute poll of likely 18th C.D. voters released today. Maloney leads bigger with Democrats than Hayworth does with Republicans, however, she has a seven-point lead with independents. Maloney has an 11-point lead in Orange County and much narrower leads in the remaining counties.
Likely voters support a Constitutional amendment for congressional term limits (69-18 percent), increasing the federal minimum wage to $10.10 per hour (67-22 percent), passing legislation for comprehensive immigration reform (66-21 percent), and enacting the ‘Buffett Rule’ – a minimum 30 percent income tax rate on millionaires (62-22 percent). By a 48-42 percent margin, they want the U.S. to do more politically and militarily in Syria and Iraq to combat terrorism. And they support repealing Obamacare 50-38 percent.
“This rematch that the political world’s been waiting for looks like it has the potential to be as hotly fought and closely decided as two years ago,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg. “Maloney has the early lead – eight points – and he’s just at the 50 percent mark.
“Maloney, holding on to his base more than Hayworth, has the support of 82 percent of Democrats and nearly one-quarter of Republicans. Hayworth leads with independent voters. In Orange County – home to half the voters – Maloney leads by 11 points. He has much narrower four- and five-point leads in the other counties. While men are closely divided between the candidates, women favor Maloney by 16 points,” Greenberg said.
“Maloney has a strong 53-31 percent favorability rating, while voters are closely divided on Hayworth, with 44 percent viewing her unfavorably and 41 percent favorably. Democrats are very negative toward Hayworth and Republicans are closely divided on Maloney,” Greenberg said.
“On immigration, health care, Mideast turmoil, and taxes, voters give only a slight edge to Maloney. On
Social Security/Medicare and jobs – the most important issue for voters – they favor Maloney over Hayworth by 10-point margins,” Greenberg said. “At this time two years ago, voters gave Hayworth similar leads on five issues, including jobs, taxes and health care.”
Democrats & Republicans Agree On Several Issues; Partisan Divide on Mideast & Obamacare
“Term limits are supported by about two-thirds of all voters. Minimum wage, immigration reform and the Buffett Rule are hugely supported by Democrats, more than 60 percent of independents and a majority of Republicans,” Greenberg said. “A strong majority of Republicans and plurality of independents favor a greater American role in the Mideast but a plurality of Democrats is opposed. More than two-thirds of Republicans and a majority of independents want Obamacare repealed, while a strong majority of Democrats oppose that.”
Cuomo Barely Leads Astorino, As Both are Viewed More Unfavorably than Favorably
“Andrew Cuomo leads Rob Astorino 45-40 percent, with independents favoring Astorino by 12 points. Cuomo has a negative 43-51 percent favorability rating and Astorino’s is a negative 33-37 percent,” Greenberg said. “Astorino is getting about one in seven Maloney voters and Cuomo does the same with Hayworth voters.”
“Maloney has the early lead. He hits, but does not top, the ‘magic 50’ mark. And he’s viewed more favorably than Hayworth. More voters have seen Maloney commercials or been contacted by his campaign. However, Hayworth’s supporters are more committed to their candidate, with 57 percent saying there’s no chance they’ll change their mind, compared to 48 percent of Maloney supporters saying that,” Greenberg said. “Hayworth had the early lead two years ago before being passed by Maloney on Election Day. With nearly seven weeks to go, this figures to be a nail-biter right up until the final votes are counted.”
This Time Warner Cable News/Siena College 18th C.D. survey was conducted September 12-17, 2014 by telephone calls to 590 likely voters. A likely voter screen was applied to the sample of registered voters that had been statistically adjusted to reflect party registration, gender and age. It has a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percentage points. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social and cultural research primarily in NYS. SRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, please call Steven Greenberg at 518-469-9858. Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at: www.Siena.edu/SRI/SNY.