New York State Consumer Real Estate Sentiment Scores
4th Quarter 2013
For Immediate Release: Monday, February 3, 2014
For information/comment: Dr. Don Levy 518-783-2901
For data summary, or charts, visit www.siena.edu/sri
Real Estate Market Remains Strong; Values Seen to be Increasing
Pendulum Swinging Towards Sellers After Years of Buyer Advantage
Loudonville, NY — “New Yorkers’ attitudes towards the real estate market remain positive, but after seven quarters of steadily improving views, we stopped improving – the market is strong but for how long,” according to Dr. Don Levy, SRI’s Director. “Now the real estate market is in transition. No longer do buyers hold all the cards, in fact in NYC, consumers already see the dawning of a seller’s market. Now the market will be tested. All statewide numbers are positive, but it remains to be seen whether, with the formally big perceived buyer advantage gone, the market can long hold in a win-win position.”
The overall current Real Estate Sentiment score among New Yorkers in the fourth quarter of 2013 is 12.0, above the point where equal percentages of citizens feel optimistic and pessimistic about the housing market and it is down 5.7 points from last quarter. Looking forward, the overall future Real Estate Sentiment score is 19.2 (down from 24.8 last quarter) indicating that New Yorkers expect the overall real estate market and the value of property to increase over the next year. Consumers see now as an improved time to sell with a score above breakeven at 3.1 (down 9.1 from last quarter), and simultaneously as a good time to buy with a positive score of 6.8.
“Let’s not worry just yet. Right now forty-five percent of all New Yorkers, including over half of Suburban consumers, say that the condition of the real estate market including the value of properties have improved over the last year, and nearly as many expect to see additional improvement in the year ahead. Only a quarter believe things have recently worsened and fewer than one in five anticipate more bad news. Compared to where we’ve been, this is a very solid footing. Of course, for those that need to worry, real estate is only one component of a broader economy that as yet has not recovered to everyone’s satisfaction.”
Each Real Estate Sentiment score is derived through statistical diffusion weighted to consider response intensity. A sentiment score of zero (0) in any category, reflects a breakeven point at which equal levels of optimism and pessimism among the population have been measured relative to the overall market, or buying or selling real estate. Scores can range from an absolute low of -100 to a high of 100 but scores below -50 or above +50 are both rare and extreme. If 100 percent of people describe the overall market or either buying or selling as greatly improved the sentiment score would equal 100. Conversely, universal extreme pessimism would score -100. Scores measure and reflect the collective sentiment of residents of New York State.
Current scores report recent change in consumer sentiment while future scores measure consumers’ projected change in sentiment as they approach the coming year. In reviewing the Sentiment Scores look first at the relationship within each category – Overall, Sell, and Buy – between current and future. Current scores measure sentiment towards the present relative to the recent past while future projects change in sentiment from the current to one year from now. An increase from a current score to a future score denotes a positive change in sentiment relative to the present. In every case when considering any of the six sentiment scores, a net positive number indicates that the collective sentiment is such that people sense improvement while a negative net score predicts or measures a collective recognition of worsening. Today’s six scores are demonstrative of a strong real estate market that is currently situated within reach of the ‘thriving zone.’
The SRI survey of Consumer Real Estate Sentiment was conducted throughout October, November, and December 2013 by random telephone calls to 1,994 New York State residents age 18 or older. As the sentiment scores are developed through a series of calculations, “margin of error” does not apply. For more information or comments, please call Dr. Don Levy at 518.783.2901. Data and charts can be found at www.siena.edu/sri/ . SRI is an independent, non-partisan research institute. SRI subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) Code of Professional Ethics and Practices.