A Recap of The New York Times/Siena College Final 2024 Election Polls 

AZ 1024 AZ 1124 GA 0924 GA 1124 MI 0924 MI 1124 NC 0924 NC 1124 NV 0824 NV 1124 PA 1024 PA 1124 WI 0924 WI 1124 TX 1024 NE 1024 SNY 1024 NY01 1024 NY04 1024

Arizona: Trump Over Harris 49-45%; Gallego Over Lake 50-45%

Siena College Research Institute Director Don Levy said: “Former President Donald Trump maintains a four-point lead – it was five points in October – over Vice President Kamala Harris. Trump continues to lead with strong support from men, and white voters without a college degree.  Harris leads among women, young voters and Hispanics.  Movement among any of these subgroups could determine the outcome.

“In the race for the open U.S. Senate seat, Democrat Ruben Gallego continues to lead Republican Kari Lake, now by five points, 50-45%, after leading 48-41%, seven points, in October. The gender gap has widened a little, with men supporting Ms. Lake by 12 points, up from four points in October, and women supporting Mr. Gallego by 19 points, up slightly from 17 points last month. Interestingly, Gallego overperforms Harris among nearly every subgroup including by a net 9 points with white voters without a B.A.”

Georgia: Harris 48% – Trump 47%

Levy said: “It went from a small four-point Trump lead in September to a near-even 48-47%, with Harris holding that nearly invisible one-point lead. Harris doubled a modest eight-point lead with women previously to a now 17-point lead, offsetting Trump’s 18-point lead among men, largely unchanged from 17 points in September.

“Harris increased her overwhelming lead with Black voters from 71 points to now 78 points, and at the same time cut her huge deficit with white voters from 45 points in September to 35 points today. Trump continues to enjoy a very large lead among white voters without a college degree, 55 points today, down from 63 points.”

Michigan: Harris & Trump Tied at 47%; Slotkin Edges Rogers 48-46%

Levy said: “In a race that’s been tight from start to finish, it’s not shocking to see the final Michigan poll be dead even, little changed from September’s one-point margin in Harris’ favor. While there was little change in the gender gap since September, the education gap has widened. Trump’s lead among voters without a college degree more than doubled from five points to 11 points, while Harris’ lead with voters who have a degree went from 14 points in September to 21 points today.

In the Michigan Senate race, Republican Mike Rogers has narrowed what was a five-point deficit against Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin in September, to a very tight two-point Slotkin lead. Similarly, last month voters without a college degree barely supported Rogers, by one point, and now favor Rogers by nine points, while Slotkin bumped her lead with college educated voters by four points, from a 17-point lead to now a 21-point lead with those voters.”

Nevada: Harris 49%, Trump 46%; Rosen Leads Brown 52-43%

Levy said: “In August, Nevada leaned, ever so slightly, to Trump 48-47%. Now, Harris has a small three-point lead, 49-46%. While Trump picked up among men, increasing his previous lead of 11 points to 16 points today, Harris dramatically widened her lead with women from seven points in August to 22 points today. She also greatly increased her lead with Hispanic voters, from a meager four points in August to a commanding two-to-one, 65-33%, lead today.

“Incumbent Democrat Jacky Rosen continues to have a nine-point lead, 52-43% compared to 49-40% in August, over Republican Sam Brown in the race for the Senate. Rosen gained ground with Hispanic voters, increasing her lead from 14 points to 39 points, but at the same time, Brown picked up with white voters, going from a narrow two-point lead to now an 11-point lead.”

North Carolina: Harris 48%, Trump 46%; Stein Tops Robinson 56-38%

Levy said: “What was a tight two-point edge for Trump in September, is now a tight two-point edge for Harris. Interestingly, Harris made ground with women and men, increasing her lead among women from eight points to 15 points, and also decreasing her deficit with men from 17 points in September to 10 points today. And in a reverse of what we see in some other states, the education gap has actually tightened. Trump’s previous 18-point lead with voters without a college degree is down to six points, while Harris’ lead among those with a college degree fell from 20 points to 15 points.

“In the race for the open Governor’s seat, Democrat Attorney General Josh Stein has nearly doubled the ten-point lead he held over Republican Lt. Governor Mark Robinson in September to a commanding 18-point, 56-38% lead. Stein leads with women two-to-one, 62-31%, but also has a narrow three-point lead with men. Perhaps the best way to view this race is through Republicans. In September, only 8% were voting for Stein; today 16%, along with 96% of Democrats.”

Pennsylvania: Trump & Harris Tied at 48%; Casey Over McCormick 50-45%

Levy said: “Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes are up for grabs with Trump and Harris tied, 47-47% in our final poll.  Trump erased Harris’ 3-point lead from three weeks earlier by drawing closer with women and extending his advantage among white voters especially those without a college degree.  Harris enjoys a 64-point lead with Black voters and a 27-point lead with white college educated voters – up from 18 points – two groups whose turnout may decide Pennsylvania.

Casey arrives at election day up 5 points over McCormick, up slightly from 4 points three weeks ago.  The gender gap lessened with McCormick drawing closer with women and Casey now down only 4 points with men but Casey extended leads among young voters and Black voters while McCormick increased his lead with white voters without a college education from 13 to 26 points.

Wisconsin: Harris 49%, Trump 47%; Baldwin Over Hovde 50-46%

Levy said: “The more things change in Wisconsin, the more they stay the same. Harris had a narrow 49-47% lead in late September and she has the same narrow 49-47% lead heading into Election Day. Not surprisingly, there was little movement over the last several weeks with most demographic groups, although voters under 30 moved from backing Trump by 18 points previously and now support Harris by 16 points. At the same time, Trump cut his gap with voters over 65 from a 15-point deficit, to trailing by eight points.

“The race for Senate between incumbent Democrat Tammy Baldwin and Republican Eric Hovde has tightened a little from a seven-point Baldwin lead previously to a now four-point bulge, 50-46%. While Hovde still trails badly with women, 57-39%, it’s been cut from what was a 62-33% Baldwin lead with women. And Hovde also increased his lead with voters without a college degree from five points to 11 points.”

Nebraska: Trump Crushes Harris 55-40%;

Harris Leads in NE2, 54-42%; Fischer Edging Osborn 48-46%

Texas: Trump Leads Harris 52-42%; Cruz Over Allred, 50-46%

New York State – Siena College Research Institute Final Poll:

• Harris Trouncing Trump 58-39%; Gillibrand Besting Sapraicone, 57-31%;

• NY1 LaLota Edging Avlon 47-44%; NY4 Gillen Beating D’Esposito 53-41%

Levy said: “It appears that New York voters are poised to do what New York voters do – vote Democratic, particularly in presidential elections. Every Democratic presidential candidate this century has carried New York by at least 18 points. The final Siena College poll has Harris leading Trump by 19 points, 58-39%.

“Not surprisingly, Senator Kirsten Gillibrand – who has won her three previous Senate elections by between 28 and 46 points – has a commanding 26-point lead over first time candidate Mike Sapraicone.

“NY1 may be one of those classic swing districts – Democrats controlled the district for a decade before Republicans captured it for the last decade – where the winner will come down to which side does a better job getting it’s supporters to the polls. With a very narrow three-point lead, incumbent Republican Nick LaLota will need to turn out every supporter if he wants to hold off his Democratic challenger, John Avlon.

“NY4 is a district that Biden carried by 12% in 2020. So even though the incumbent, freshman Republican, Anthony D’Esposito, beat his past and current Democratic challenger, Laura Gillen, by three points in 2022, the district appears poised to return to the Democratic column, now favoring Gillen by 12 points, 53-41%, over D’Esposito.”