Harris Opens 19-Point Lead Over Trump, 58-39%; Up from 55-42% in September; Her Largest Lead to Date

• Gillibrand Leads Sapraicone 57-31%, Little Changed from 54-31% Last Month
• Better than 3-to-1 Support for Proposed NYS ERA, 69-22%, Up from 64-23% 
• Hochul Ratings See Small Bounce Back; Remain Significantly Under Water 

Press Release     Crosstabs

Loudonville, NY. Vice President Kamala Harris has opened her largest lead, 19 points, against former President Donald Trump, and now leads 58-39% among likely voters, up from 55-42% in September. In a multi-candidate horserace, Harris leads Trump 54-37%, up from 52-40% last month, with four percent for the minor party candidates, according to a Siena College poll of New York State likely voters released today.

Voters continue to say by a wide margin they trust Harris to do a better job than Trump on abortion (64-31%) and democracy (58-38%), and narrowly they say Harris will do a better job on the economy (52-46%) and immigration (50-46%). Democratic Senator Kirsten Gillibrand continues to have a large lead over Republican Mike Sapraicone, 57-31%, up slightly from 54-31% in September. The proposed ERA constitutional amendment is overwhelmingly supported, 69-22%, up from 64-23% last month.

“Harris has widened her lead over Trump in New York, leading by 19 points in a head-to-head matchup, up from 13 points last month, and by 17 points in a multi-candidate race, up from 12 points,” Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg said. “Harris continues to have 88% support from Democrats and 87% of Republicans continue to support Trump. Independent voters – who have a tendency to fluctuate on how closely they align with the two parties – are closely divided, with 47% for Trump and 46% for Harris, after strongly favoring Trump last month.

“The gender gap is also widening, with men supporting Trump 54-43%, up a little from 52-46% last month, and women overwhelmingly supporting Harris, 71-25%, up from 64-32% in September,” Greenberg said. “The increase in Harris’ lead comes from Black, white and Latino voters, as well as younger and middle-aged voters.” 

Voters have a favorable view of Harris, 54-43% (53-44% in September), while they view Trump unfavorably,  38-60% (39-57% last month).

“A modest majority of voters continue to have a favorable view of Harris. And by a larger margin, voters continue to have an unfavorable view of Trump, who they have consistently viewed unfavorably for more than a decade.”

“New Yorkers continue to trust Harris more than Trump to do a better job on four key issues – two, abortion and democracy, by 33 points and 20 points, respectively. On the economy and immigration, voters narrowly think Harris will do a better job,” Greenberg said. “At least 81% of Democrats say Harris will do better on three of the issues, while 76% say she will be better on immigration. Similarly, at least 85% of Republicans say Trump will do a better job on three of the issues, with 72% saying he’d be better on abortion.” 

Gillibrand Maintains Sizable Lead, 26 Points, Over Sapraicone, Little-Known Republican Challenger

“The 15-year Democratic incumbent, Gillibrand, facing a largely unknown Republican challenger, Sapraicone, has a comfortable 26-point lead, up slightly from 23 points last month,” Greenberg said. “While Sapraicone has support from 70% of Republicans, Gillibrand enjoys support from 84% of Democrats, and she has a single-digit lead with independents. Gillibrand has a 44-26% favorability rating, up from 40-31% in September. Interestingly, three in ten voters continue to not know or not have an opinion of Gillibrand. Sapraicone remains essentially unknown to nine in ten voters. 

Voters Increase Already Strong Support for Proposed ERA Constitutional Amendment on the Ballot 

“Voters support the proposed constitutional amendment by an overwhelming 69-22%. While Republicans oppose the amendment by a 50-36% margin, 89% of Democrats and 62% of independents support the amendment,” Greenberg said. “Regionally, it’s supported by 57% of upstate voters, 69% of downstate suburban voters and 84% of New York City voters. More than three-quarters of women support the amendment, as do 58% of men.” 

Hochul Favorability & Job Approval Ratings Gain Back Some Ground but Both Remain Negative

Governor Kathy Hochul’s favorability rating is 36-51%, up a little from 34-54% in September. Her job approval rating stands at 41-51%, up from 39-56% last month.

“Hochul continues to be viewed favorably by a small majority, 53%, of fellow Democrats, while 84% of Republicans – up from 79% – and 56% of independents – down from 68% – view her unfavorably,” Greenberg said. “The good news for Hochul is that both her favorability and job approval ratings are up a little. The bad news is that they’re up from all time lows and have a ways to go before reaching positive territory.”

Half of Voters Say State Headed in Wrong Direction, Six in Ten Say Country Headed in Wrong Direction

By a 51-37% margin, voters say New York State is headed in the wrong direction, rather than on the right track, an improvement from 55-32% in September. Voters say the country is headed in the wrong direction by a 61-28% margin, a little worse than 59-31% last month.

“While Democrats continue to say the state is headed on the right track, 55-33%, little changed from last month, Democrats also say the country is headed in the wrong direction, 47-40%, a flip from September when a plurality, 49-35%, said the country was on the right track,” Greenberg said. “More than 8 in 10 Republicans continue to say that both the state and country are headed in the wrong direction, as do strong majorities of independents.”

Odds & Ends

• Voters favor Democrats for Congress over Republicans, 54-37%, up a little from 52-39% in September. Downstate suburbanites and independents had favored Republican candidates last month but now favor Democrats for Congress.
• President Joe Biden has a breakeven 48-48% favorability rating, up from 45-51% in September. Likewise, his job approval rating is now 50-49%, up from 47-53%. Democrats remain staunchly positive in their view of Biden and Republicans remain even more staunchly negative. Independents have mellowed a little, although a strong majority of them remain negative toward the President.
• By a 75-23% margin, down a little from 79-19% last month, voters say this is the most important election of their lifetimes, a view shared by 80% of Democrats, 77% of Republicans and 63% of independent voters. 
• Despite the overwhelmingly pessimistic view voters have regarding the direction of the country, a majority of voters, 52-38%, say they are optimistic about the future of the country given the candidates, campaign and issues being discussed, compared to 53-33% in September. While 58% of Democrats and 50% of Republicans are optimistic, independents, by a small margin, 47-44%, continue to tilt toward the pessimistic side.

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This Siena College Poll was conducted October 13-17, 2024, among 872 likely voters in New York. Telephone sampling was conducted via a weighted stratified dual frame sample of landline and cell phone drawn from the L-2 database of registered voters (872 completed via telephone). Data was statistically adjusted by region, race/ethnicity, political party, education, statewide vote pattern in the 2020 election, gender, and voter likelihood, a computed score that combines voter history, stated voter likelihood and modeled turnout by respondent. It has an overall margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points including the design effects resulting from weighting. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social, and cultural research primarily in NYS. SCRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, call Steve Greenberg at (518) 469-9858. For survey crosstabs: www.Siena.edu/SCRI/SNY.