- Voters Trust Harris More on Abortion, Democracy, Economy; Immigration Tied
- Gillibrand Leads Sapraicone 54-31%; NYS Proposed ERA Favored 64-23%
- Hochul Favorability & Job Approval Hit New Lows; Only 1/3 Say NY on Right Track
Loudonville, NY. Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump 55-42% among likely voters, little changed from 53-39% last month. In a multi-candidate horserace, Harris leads Trump 52-40% (49-37% in August), with three percent for the minor party candidates, according to a Siena College poll of New York State likely voters released today.
Voters say they trust Harris – with a 53-44% favorability rating (53-43% last month) – more than Trump –39-57% favorability rating (39-59% last month) – on abortion (60-34%), democracy (56-40%) and the economy (52-45%). On immigration, Harris is trusted by 48%, and Trump by 47%. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand maintains a 23-point lead over her Republican opponent, first time candidate Mike Sapraicone. Voters continue to overwhelmingly support the proposed ERA constitutional amendment 64-23% (down slightly from 68-23%).
Governor Kathy Hochul has a 34-54% favorability rating, down from 39-50% in August, and her job approval rating falls to 39-56%, down from 46-49% in August. Both are low water marks for Hochul.
“New York remains solidly ‘blue’ but perhaps not as deep blue as it has been in the last several presidential cycles. In the six presidential elections this century, Democrats have carried New York by at least 18 points, and at least 22 points in five of the six. President Biden won here by 23 points in 2020,” Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg said. “With less than seven weeks till election day, Harris leads Trump head-to-head by 13 points, little changed from 14 points last month, and by 12 points in a multi-candidate race, unchanged from August.
“Despite the Democratic convention, the debate and numerous other events during the six weeks between Siena College polls, there has been little movement in the horse race or in either candidate’s favorability rating. While the race appears largely static, Harris did pick up support among Latino voters, leading Trump 56-39%, up from 48-47% in August,” Greenberg said. “Independents moved further in Trump’s direction, supporting him over Harris 58-34%, up from 47-40% last month. Interestingly, New York’s independent voters moved significantly in the Republican direction across several questions that will be on the ballot.”
“New Yorkers trust Harris more than Trump on abortion, democracy and the economy, and trust them equally on immigration. But there are huge partisan divides. Democrats trust Harris on all four issues by between 76 and 89 percent, and Republicans trust Trump by between 76 and 89 percent,” Greenberg said. “While independents trust Harris more on abortion by 50-42%, they trust Trump more on the other three by between 15 and 34 points.
“A plurality of voters, 43%, said the debate between Trump and Harris did not affect their vote in November, however, by 37-17% voters say the debate moved them to be more likely to support Harris than Trump,” Greenberg said. “Two thirds of voters want to see a second debate between the two, including 61% of Democrats, 69% of Republicans and 71% of independents.”
Gillibrand Maintains Comfortable 23-Point Lead over Unknown Republican Opponent
“Gillibrand – seeking a third full term and fourth statewide victory – continues to remain in a strong position for reelection, leading by 23 points. Gillibrand beat other largely unknown challengers by 34 points in 2018 and 46 points in 2012,” Greenberg said. “While Gillibrand is still getting crushed by Republicans, Sapraicone’s margin dropped from 65 to 56 points. At the same time, independents have flipped, and now support Sapraicone by nine points, 45-36%, after supporting Gillibrand by 13 points, 48-35%, in August. And voters under 35 support Gillibrand by 21 points, down 41 points since last month.”
Voters Continue to Strongly Support Proposed ERA Constitutional Amendment on November’s Ballot
“Democrats continue to overwhelmingly support the proposed amendment, 89-6%. Republican opposition has narrowed from 23-point opposition last month to 18-point opposition now, 48-30%. Independents had supported the amendment last month 64-23%, and while they still support, it has narrowed to 49-31%,” Greenberg said. “The amendment has nearly 60% support outside of New York City, and 78% support in the City.
Hochul Favorability & Job Approval Ratings Both Worst Ever
“While Hochul’s favorability rating has never been outstanding – she’s never been viewed favorably by 50% of voters in a state where 49% of the voters are Democrats – it has now hit an all-time low, 34-54%,” Greenberg said. “Her job approval rating, 39-56%, is also a record low.”
“It should be noted that while the net favorability ratings of Biden, Trump, Gillibrand, Harris, and VP candidate JD Vance did not move more than a point or two in the last month, Hochul’s favorability rating fell by net nine points and her job approval rating fell by net 14 points,” Greenberg said. “It is also worth noting that Hochul’s favorability rating, 20 points under water, is worse than Trump’s, 18 points under water. To repeat, Kathy Hochul has a lower net favorability rating in New York than Donald Trump.”
Odds & Ends
- Voters favor Democrats for Congress over Republicans, 52-39%, little changed from 52-37% in August. So, while the Democratic presidential candidate leads by 13 points and Gillibrand leads by 23 points, the congressional generic ballot favors Democrats by 13 points. Last month, independents were evenly divided, 40-40%. Today they favor Republican congressional candidates two-to-one, 56-27%. Republican candidates are also narrowly supported by downstate suburban and upstate voters.
- Just as New York voters have soured on Governor Hochul, so, too, they have soured on the direction of the state. Only 32% of voters think New York is on the right track, compared to a majority of 55% who say the state is headed in the wrong direction. Last month it was 39-51%, net movement of 11 points in the direction of the state being on the wrong track. This is the most pessimistic New Yorkers have been about the direction of the state in at least a decade. It was close to this level, 34-55%, in January of this year. New Yorkers also remain pessimistic about the direction of the country, 31-59%, little changed from 30-61% last month.
- By a 79-19% margin, up a little from 74-23% last month, voters say this is the most important election of their lifetimes, a view shared by 82% of Democrats, 77% of Republicans and 75% of independent voters.
- Despite having a pessimistic view of the direction of the country, a majority of voters, by a margin of 53-33% (53-38% in August) say they are optimistic about the future of the country given the candidates, campaign and issues being discussed. Two-thirds of Democrats are optimistic. Republicans are evenly divided. And independents are pessimistic, 43-35%.
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This Siena College Poll was conducted September 11 – 16, 2024, among 1,003 likely voters in New York. Telephone sampling was conducted via a weighted stratified dual frame sample of landline and cell phone drawn from the L-2 database of registered voters (467 completed via telephone, 536 completed via text to web). Data was statistically adjusted by region, race/ethnicity, political party, education, statewide vote pattern in the 2020 election, gender, and voter likelihood, a computed score that combines voter history, stated voter likelihood and modeled turnout by respondent. It has an overall margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points including the design effects resulting from weighting. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social, and cultural research primarily in NYS. SCRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, call Steve Greenberg at (518) 469-9858. For survey crosstabs: www.Siena.edu/SCRI/SNY.
