Harris Leads Trump by 14 Points (53-39%), Up from Biden’s 8-Point Lead in June; In 6-Way Matchup, Harris Leads By 12 Points; RFK 7%

• Harris Viewed Favorably, 53-43%; Trump Viewed Unfavorably, 39-59%; Three-Quarters Say Upcoming Election is Most Important of Their Lifetime
• Gillibrand Leads Sapraicone 56-33%; NYS Proposed ERA Favored 68-23%
• Voters Support Smartphones Being Prohibited in Classrooms, 60-32%; Want Congestion Pricing Plan Scrapped, Not Implemented, 59-22%

Press Release     Crosstabs

Loudonville, NY. Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump 53-39% among likely New York State voters, the first time the Siena College poll has included Harris in a horserace against Trump. In late June Trump trailed President Joe Biden by a narrower 47-39%. In a six-way election horserace, Harris leads Trump 49-37%, with seven percent for Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and four percent for the other three minor party candidates, according to a Siena College poll of New York State likely voters released today.

Harris has a 53-43% favorability rating, up from 42-47% in October 2023. Trump’s favorability rating is 39-59%, little changed from 37-59% in June, among registered voters. By a 74-23% margin, voters say this is the most important election of their lifetime. Democratic Senator Kirsten Gillibrand leads Republican challenger Mike Sapraicone 56-33%. Voters strongly support the proposed constitutional amendment on November’s ballot, called the Equal Rights Amendment, 68-23%.

“The landscape has changed since the last Siena College poll. The change at the top of the Democratic ticket has had a noticeable, while not dramatic, effect on the horserace. Harris has the support of 86% of Democrats, up from the 75% support Biden had in June. And while independent voters support Trump over Harris 47-40%, they supported Trump over Biden 45-28%,” Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg said. “Harris leads with Black voters 81-11%, up from Biden’s 59-29% lead in June.

“The gender gap has widened with Harris replacing Biden. Currently Harris leads with women by 34 points,64-30%, up from Biden’s 51-33%, or 18-point lead. The race moved far less with men, who favor Trump over Harris 49-43%, compared to the 46-42% lead men gave Trump in June,” Greenberg said. “Interestingly, it wasn’t young voters that moved the needle. Among voters under 35, Harris leads 49-34%, down a little from the 51-32% lead Biden had in June. Harris’ big pickup was among voters 35-54, who favor her 54-40%, after backing Trump 44-41% over Biden in June.”

“Among all the presidential candidates that are likely to be on New York’s ballot, Harris is the only one with a positive favorability rating,” Greenberg said. “And looking at the race if it is a six-way election, Harris’ lead falls slightly from 14 points to 12 points. At the moment, 11% of voters – and 19% of independents – say they will vote for a minor party candidate.

“When asked if this election is the most important of their lifetime or no more or less important than any other election, more than three-quarters of Democrats (79%) and Republicans (77%) say it is the most important, while nearly two-thirds (65%) of independents say it’s the most important election of their lifetime,” Greenberg said. “When asked to think about the candidates and issues in the national election and whether they were optimistic or pessimistic about the future of America, a majority, 53-38% say they are optimistic, including 61% of Democrats  and 52% of Republicans, but only 40% of independents.

“Voters think that Harris is prepared to be President for four years, 58-42%, and more narrowly, 51-48%, they say Trump is prepared. Not surprisingly, 88% of Democrats say Harris is prepared and 88% of Republicans say she is not. However, while 94% of Republicans say Trump is prepared, even one-quarter of Democrats concede he is prepared,” Greenberg said. “Independents say Trump is prepared, 61-38%, but Harris is not prepared, 52-46%.”

Gillibrand Holds Comfortable 23-Point Lead over Virtually Unknown Republican Opponent

 “With only 13 weeks until election day, Gillibrand is in strong position to win her fourth election to the United States Senate. She leads Sapraicone, her Republican opponent, 56-33%. She won reelection in 2018 with a 34-point victory over her then little-known Republican opponent,” Greenberg said.

“Not surprisingly, Sapraicone, who is making his first run for public office, is virtually unknown to New York voters. His favorability rating is 5-10%, with 85% having no opinion or having never heard of him,” Greenberg said. “What is a little surprising is that Gillibrand, who has been Senator since 2009, remains unknown to more than one-quarter of voters, but does have a 40-33% favorability rating.”

Voters Support Proposed Constitutional Amendment Called ERA on November’s Ballot 3-to-1

“Democrats support New York’s so-called ERA amendment – which adds anti-discrimination provisions to the State Constitution and protects abortion rights – by an overwhelming 89-7%. Independents support it 64-23%. Republicans oppose the amendment, 55-32%,” Greenberg said. “While men support the amendment 56-31%, it is supported by women 79-15%. It is strongly supported in every region, and with white, Black and Latino voters.”

2-to-1 Support for Banning Smartphones in Classrooms; Strong Support for Scrapping Congestion Pricing

“Voters support banning smartphones in classrooms 60-32%. In a true oddity, it is supported 58-36% by both Democrats and Republicans, with even stronger support from independents, 64-21%. Voters over 35 support a smartphone classroom ban two-to-one, however, voters under 35 only support such a ban, 44-40%,” Greenberg said. “Republicans (68%), Democrats (56%) and independents (54%) also all support scrapping the proposed congestion pricing plan for Manhattan. It is opposed in every region and with every demographic group.”

Odds & Ends

• Governor Kathy Hochul has a 39-50% favorability rating, compared to 38-49% in June. Her job approval rating, 46-49%, is up slightly from 44-50% in June. Hochul has never hit 50% of voters viewing her favorably, and this month she hit 50% of voters viewing her unfavorably, the first time she’s hit that mark.
• Strong majorities of voters think that crime in New York has gotten worse over the last year, (54%), as has the influx of migrants (64%), the availability of affordable housing (71%), and the cost of living (82%).
• Voters favor Democrats for Congress over Republicans, 52-37%, little changed from 50-35% in June. While the Democratic lead for the presidential race grew from 8 to 14 points, the race for Congress stayed the same. While more than two-thirds of New York City voters favor Democrats, they only hold narrow leads where the most competitive races are – the suburbs (47-44% Democrat) and upstate (44-42% Democrat).
• Voters remain sour on the direction of the state and country. By 51-39% (52-37% in June) voters say New York is off in the wrong direction, rather than on the right track. Voters are even more negative about the direction of the nation, thinking the country is headed in the wrong direction 61-30% (61-31% in June).

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This Siena College Poll was conducted July 28–August 1, 2024, among 1,199 likely voters in New York. Telephone sampling was conducted via a weighted stratified dual frame sample of landline and cell phone drawn from the L-2 database of registered voters. Data was statistically adjusted by region, race/ethnicity, political party, education, statewide vote pattern in the 2020 election, a combined measure of stated and derived vote likelihood and gender to ensure representativeness. It has an overall margin of error of +/- 4.0 percentage points including the design effects resulting from weighting. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social, and cultural research primarily in NYS. SCRI, an independent, nonpartisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, call Steve Greenberg at (518) 469-9858. For survey crosstabs: www.Siena.edu/SCRI/SNY.