Hochul Favorability (38-49%) & Job Approval (44-50%) Ratings Lowest Ever; Voters: Hochul Doesn’t Care About People Like Them or Provide Decisive Leadership; Small Pluralities Think She Works Hard and Is Honest

• Bipartisan Support for Hochul Decision to Put Congestion Pricing on Hold, 45-23%; Overwhelming 70-12% Support to Ban Algorithm-based Social Media Feeds to Kids; Majorities Wish Legislature Had Passed Both Heat Act & Plastics Reduction Act
• Biden – With Worst-Ever NYS Favorability Rating, 42-53% – Continues to Lead Trump By Single Digits (47-39%); Two-Thirds of Voters Plan to Watch Next Week’s Debate
• Nearly 2/3 of Voters Think US Justice Department Decisions are Influenced by Politics

Press Release     Crosstabs

Loudonville, NY. Governor Kathy Hochul has her lowest ever favorability rating, 38-49%, down a little from 38-46% in May, and her lowest ever job approval rating, 44-50%, down from 45-46% last month. Small pluralities think Hochul demonstrates honesty and integrity (40-36%) and works hard for the people (42-36%), however, larger pluralities say she doesn’t care about people like them (44-34%), and doesn’t provide decisive leadership (44-36%), according to a Siena College poll of New York State registered voters released today.

By 45-23%, voters across party lines support Hochul’s end-of-session decision to put the congestion pricing toll plan on hold, with 16% volunteering a position in the middle. An overwhelming 70-12% bipartisan majority says the Legislature was right to pass a bill to ban social media platforms from providing addictive algorithm-based feeds to minors without parental consent. Voters think the Legislature should have passed both the Plastics Reduction Act, 58-31%, and the Heat Act, 58-26%.

“Despite strongly supporting Hochul’s decision to put congestion pricing on hold, and even more strongly supporting the social media bill she championed, voters now give Hochul the lowest favorability and job approval ratings she’s had in nearly three years as Governor,” Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg said. “Among Democrats, she continues to have a two-to-one favorability rating and even stronger job approval rating, however, she’s viewed unfavorably by 81% of Republicans and 61% of independents, while 84% of Republicans and 63% of independents disapprove of the job she’s doing as Governor.

“When it comes to various Hochul characteristics, the partisan divide remains between Democrats on one side and Republicans joined by independents on the other side,” Greenberg said. “Democrats say Hochul cares about people like them, works hard, is a decisive leader, and honest. Republicans and independents don’t agree.”

“On four attributes, voters give Hochul lower grades now than in December 2022, when she had slightly positive favorability and job performance ratings,” Greenberg said. “In the most dramatic example, a year and a half ago, voters said Hochul cared about people like them 45-37%. Now they say she doesn’t, 44-34%, a net 18-point drop.”

Congestion Pricing & Social Media Actions Supported; Wanted Heat & Plastics Reduction Acts Passed

“There’s little partisan difference when it comes to Hochul’s end-of-session surprise decision to put congestion pricing on hold. It is supported by 46% of Democrats, 45% of Republicans and 43% of independents, all large pluralities. While younger voters were closely divided, older voters supported the hold 49-24%,” Greenberg said. “There is even larger bipartisan support for limiting algorithm-based feed to minors, with 66% of Republicans, 69% of independents and 72% of Democrats supporting it.

“By 51-17%, voters say the recently concluded legislative session didn’t succeed in passing laws to improve the quality of life in New York. It’s unclear if that’s related to the Legislature not passing either the Heat Act or the Plastics Reduction Act, but both are popular with New York voters and they would have liked the Legislature to pass them. Each had the support of two-thirds of Democrats, a majority of independents and a plurality of Republicans,” Greenberg said.

Biden Has Worst-Ever Favorability Rating and Continues Narrow, Single-Digit Lead Over Trump

President Biden has a 42-53% favorability rating, down from 45-50% in May, his lowest-ever favorability rating. His job approval rating fell to 45-53%, down a little from 46-51% last month. Former President Trump has a 37-59% favorability rating, down from 39-56% in May. Currently, Biden leads Trump 47-39%, little changed from 47-38% in May, and 47-37% in April.

“While Biden maintains the support of three-quarters of Democrats, Trump has support from 85% of Republicans and leads Biden 45-28% with independents,” Greenberg said. “A gender gap has reopened as men support Trump 46-42% and women favor Biden 51-33%. White voters are evenly divided. And while Biden has a commanding lead with non-white voters, Trump garners support from 29% of Black and 26% of Latino voters.”

“Two-thirds of voters say they plan to watch next week’s debate between Trump and Biden, the earliest general election presidential debate in memory,” Greenberg said. “It remains to be seen what impact the debate has on the race, but the last time the presidential election was as close as it is now in New York was 1988 when Democrat Michael Dukakis beat Republican George H.W. Bush by only four points, 52-48%. Ronald Reagan was the last Republican to carry New York – by eight points, 54-46% – in 1984.”

Voters Overwhelmingly Say US Justice Department Decisions Influenced by Politics

“An overwhelming bipartisan majority of voters, 65%, says decisions made by the U.S. justice system are influenced by politics. Only 18% think the justice system operates without political influence,” Greenberg said. “The view that justice system decisions are politically influenced is held by 82% of Republicans, 67% of independents and 57% of Democrats.”

Odds & Ends

• Voters continue to favor Democrats for Congress over Republicans, 50-35%, little changed from 49-33% in May. That 15-point lead for Democrats is nearly twice the eight-point lead Biden holds over Trump. Voters give Democrats in Congress a closely divided favorability rating, 45-47%, however, they are very unfavorable towards Republicans in Congress, 29-62%.
• US House Speaker Mike Johnson has 22-39% favorability rating. It was 19-28% in November. House Minority Leader, New York’s Hakeem Jeffries has a 34-27% favorability rating, from 32-25% in April.
• New Yorkers continue to support adding constitutional protections for abortion rights, 65-20%, from 64-22% last month, and for transgender rights, 49-32%, from 48-32% last month. Support for a constitutional amendment that protects both abortion and transgender rights remains high, 59-27% (59-26% in May).
• Senator Kirsten Gillibrand has a 40-31% favorability rating, little changed from 39-32% last month. Currently, 42% say they would vote to re-elect Gillibrand this year, while 42% say they would prefer ‘someone else,’ compared to 39-41% in May.
• After completing this year’s session, voters give the Assembly a 36-37% favorability rating, compared to 35-38% in April, and give the Senate a 38-39% favorability rating, up a little from 37-42% in April.
• Voters overwhelmingly continue to say the recent influx of migrants to New York is a serious problem, with 83% saying it’s a very (57%) or somewhat (26%) serious problem, a consistent view for nearly a year.

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This Siena College Poll was conducted June 12-17, 2024, among 805 NYS Registered Voters. Of the 805 respondents, 509 were contacted through a dual frame (landline and cell phone) mode (173 completed via text to web) and 296 respondents were drawn from a proprietary online panel (Lucid). Telephone calls were conducted in English and respondent sampling was initiated by asking for the youngest person in the household. Telephone sampling was conducted via a stratified dual frame probability sample of landline and cell phone telephone numbers weighted to reflect known population patterns. The landline telephone sample was obtained from ASDE and the cell phone sample was obtained from Dynata. Data from collection modes was statistically adjusted by age, party by region, race/ethnicity, education, and gender to ensure representativeness. It has an overall margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points including the design effects resulting from weighting. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social, and cultural research primarily in NYS. SCRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, call Steve Greenberg at (518) 469-9858. For survey crosstabs: www.Siena.edu/SCRI/SNY.