- Voters Support Amending the State Constitution to Protect Abortion Rights (64-22%) & Transgender Rights (48-32%); Voters Would Vote Yes on ERA that Does Both, 59-26%, if on Ballot
- Strong Support (63-20%) for Banning Addictive Social Media Feeds to Minors Without Parental Consent; Mixed Results Doubling Beverage Container Fee from 5¢ to 10¢ (43-46%)
- Biden Maintains Narrow Lead Over Trump (47-38%); 32% Say Biden Win Will Irreparably Harm America, 41% Say Trump Victory Will Irreparably Harm America
Loudonville, NY. By a 72-22% margin, New Yorkers support students peacefully demonstrating in support of those suffering in Gaza. By a similar 70-22%, they say the protests went too far and they support the police being called in. A slightly smaller 64-27% majority say they understand the frustration demonstrators have with the continuing Gaza war and they also support an immediate ceasefire. Finally, they say 61-25% that demonstrators have forgotten Hamas started the war and it feels like the demonstrations have crossed the line into anti-Semitism, according to a Siena College poll of New York State registered voters released today.
By nearly three-to-one, 64-22%, voters support a state constitutional amendment to protect abortion rights, and by a narrower 48-32% margin, they support a constitutional amendment to protect transgender rights. If the state ERA amendment – which protects both abortion and transgender rights – is on the ballot, voters currently say they would vote yes, 59-26%. Voters strongly support, 63-20%, a proposal to ban social media platforms from providing addictive, algorithm-based feeds to minors without parental consent. A narrow plurality, 46-43%, opposes increasing the current 5-cent deposit to 10 cents on beverage containers.
“Voters overwhelmingly agree with each of four statements concerning the recent protests at college campuses across the state and nation – 72% support students peacefully demonstrating, 70% support police being called in when protests went too far, 64% support an immediate ceasefire, and 61% are concerned the demonstrations have crossed the line into anti-Semitism,” Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg said. “While they differ by degree, a majority of Democrats, Republicans and independents agree with each of the four statements. Interestingly, older voters are more likely to say the demonstrations crossed into anti-Semitism and it was OK to call in the police, while younger voters are more likely to support peacefully demonstrating and calling for a ceasefire.”
“Other than Republicans and self-identified conservatives, every demographic group – by region, gender, race, age, religion, or income – supports, by at least a two-to-one margin, amending the state constitution to protect abortion rights. A plurality of Republicans and conservatives oppose it,” Greenberg said. “An amendment to protect transgender rights has plurality support, with stronger support from Democrats, women, and Black, young and New York City voters.”
“When asked if they would vote ‘yes’ on a state ERA amendment that includes both abortion and transgender protections, voters say ‘yes’ better than two-to-one, including at least two-thirds of Democrats, women, and Black, young and New York City voters,” Greenberg said. “Republicans, however, by a 54-30% margin say they would vote ‘no’ on the state ERA if it in fact makes the ballot this year.”
Strong Support for Protecting Minors from Social Media Algorithm Feeds; Mixed on Increasing Beverage Container Deposit from 5¢ to 10¢; Thumbs Down for Consumers Paying More to Reduce Fossil Fuels
“One issue that seems to unite every demographic group in the state is support for a proposal to ban social media platforms from providing addictive, algorithm-based feeds to minors without parental consent. Republicans support the proposal nearly two-to-one, 52-27%, and they are the ‘least supportive’ of any group. In fact, no other demographic group has more than 24% in opposition,” Greenberg said.
“Doubling the beverage container deposit from a nickel to a dime is narrowly opposed by all voters. It has support from Democrats, New York City, Black, Latino, and younger voters. It is opposed by Republicans, independents, downstate suburbanites, upstaters (narrowly), white and older voters,” Greenberg said. “Interestingly, voters with income under $50K support the increase 51-35%, while voters with incomes more than $100K oppose it 49-38%.
“Voters oppose state actions aimed at reducing fossil fuel use if it will require consumers to pay more for energy, 45-36%. Democrats, New York City, Black and younger voters support those kinds of actions – although it is worth noting that none of those groups tops 50%, only Democrats hit 50%,” Greenberg said. “Republicans, independents, voters outside New York City, white and older voters oppose it.”
Biden Maintains Narrow 9-Point Lead; Only 18% Say US Will Survive & Thrive Regardless of Outcome
President Biden has a 45-50% favorability rating, little changed from 45-52% in April. His job approval rating improved slightly to 46-51%, from 45-55% last month. Former President Trump has a 39-56% favorability rating, up a little from 37-59% in April. Currently, Biden leads Trump 47-38%, little changed from 47-37% last month.
“In a state that hasn’t voted for the GOP candidate for president since Ronald Reagan 40 years ago, and where Democrats hold a 26-point enrollment advantage over Republicans, Biden only leads Trump – whose negative favorability rating is not much worse than Biden’s – by a ‘narrow’ nine points,” Greenberg said. “While 18% of Democrats support Trump, only 9% of Republicans support Biden, and independents are evenly divided, 37-37%. There is only a small gender gap as Biden leads with men by five points and with women by 12 points.”
“When asked to choose from three choices, 41% of voters – including 57% of Democrats – said a Trump victory will irreparably harm America, while 32% – including 66% of Republicans – said a Biden victory will irreparably harm America. Only 18% of voters – including between 16% and 19% of Democrats, Republicans and independents – say America will survive and thrive regardless of the outcome,” Greenberg said.
Voters Paying Attention to Trump Trial; Outcome – Either Way – Doesn’t Appear to Move Many Voters
Two-thirds of voters, 66%, say they are paying a great deal (29%) or some (37%) attention to Trump’s trial. Forty percent of voters think Trump will be found guilty, while 35% think he will not be found guilty. If he is found guilty, 14% say it will make them more likely to vote for Trump, 17% say less likely, and 65% say it will make no difference. If not found guilty, 15% say it makes them more likely to vote for Trump, 12% less likely and 71% say it will make no difference.
“Democrats think Trump will be convicted, Republicans don’t. Independents lean towards ‘not’ 34-31%,” Greenberg said. “But the outcome – before there is one – doesn’t matter much to voters, as large majorities of Democrats, Republicans and independents say guilty verdict or not, the outcome will have no effect on their vote. Interestingly, 30% of Republicans say they’re more likely to vote for Trump with either outcome.”
Odds & Ends
- Governor Kathy Hochul has a 38-46% favorability rating, little changed from 40-49% last month. Her job approval rating was also little changed at 45-46%, compared to 45-49% in April.
- Voters favor Democrats for Congress over Republicans, 49-33%, little changed from 49-36% last month. Interestingly, Democrats have registered 49% in every poll since October 2023, and hold a 16-point lead over Republicans, even as Biden’s lead over Trump has dropped into single digits.
- By 47-35%, voters say they support $61B in aid to Ukraine. They support $26B in aid to Israel, including $9B for Gaza relief aid, 48-33%. And they support $8B for allies in the Pacific, including Taiwan, 53-25%.
- 82% of voters say single-use plastic packaging is a major (47%) or minor (35%) problem, while only 14% say it is not a problem. By 67-22%, voters support the Packaging Reduction & Recycling Act, including support from more than three-quarters of Democrats, two-thirds of independents and a plurality of Republicans.
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This Siena College Poll was conducted May 13-15, 2024, among 1,191 NYS Registered Voters. Of the 1,191 respondents, 890 were contacted through a dual frame (landline and cell phone) mode (227 completed via text to web) and 301 respondents were drawn from a proprietary online panel (Lucid). Telephone calls were conducted in English and respondent sampling was initiated by asking for the youngest person in the household. Telephone sampling was conducted via a stratified dual frame probability sample of landline and cell phone telephone numbers weighted to reflect known population patterns. The landline telephone sample was obtained from ASDE and the cell phone sample was obtained from Dynata. Data from collection modes was statistically adjusted by age, party by region, race/ethnicity, education, and gender to ensure representativeness. It has an overall margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points including the design effects resulting from weighting. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social, and cultural research primarily in NYS. SCRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, call Steve Greenberg at (518) 469-9858. For survey crosstabs: www.Siena.edu/SCRI/SNY.
